Intro by Sam
Well, it was a sad day for Yank yesterday in more ways than one. Not only did his Giants suffer from their week prior super bowl hangover and no-show against the Eagles, but most of his bets were outclassed by the casinos. He was robbed of a cover in the Jags-Chiefs matchup with a stupid last-minute field goal. When the kicking unit ran out on the field, I was sitting in a prime position with either a push or a cover, and I got the cover. As I texted Yank in the middle of the game, Pedersen was coaching for the cover. Coming out of that game, not all was lost for Yank as our parlays were still intact. The aforementioned Eagles-Giants game had few bright spots for the boys. Our bets on the Giants as underdogs stood as much of a chance as the Giants interior line did against that ferocious Eagles defensive line. Thankfully I was able to parry some of the damages with a +320 anytime TD bet on Giant killer Boston Scott and cashing in on 1 of my 3 parlays featuring the Chiefs and Eagles Moneylines. We’ve still got a few parlays in play from yesterday and we’ll summon our inner goldfish and move into today with a few more bets.
Divisional Round Picks
The Cincinnati Bengals @ the Buffalo Bills-5.5 (Sunday @ 3:00 PM ET on CBS)
Yank: I already have a bad feeling about my take on this game. The line has moved multiple points toward the Bills this week. This is happening despite the public being all over the Bengals at a 60-70% clip. That generally signals that taking the Bengals is a recipe for gambling disaster. Add in that Cincy is down over half of their starting offensive line, almost lost to a team piloted by Tyler Huntley last week, and has to travel to frigid Buffalo for this contest and all the signs pretty clearly seem to point to the Bills. So what gives, why am I clearly favoring Cincinnati? I don’t trust Sean McDermott, who has won exactly zero important playoff games. I don’t trust Josh Allen, who looked more like Chuck Knoblach than Joe Montana when the Dolphins got close in a few critical moments last week. This Bills team struggled to put away Skylar Thompson. On the other sideline, this week is arguably the scariest big game in the NFL. I hate to be aligned with the public, but I hate to bet against Joe Burrow as an underdog even more.
Sam: With the money %’s and ticket %’s the way they are, it’s best to avoid the spread in this one. Normally our strategy would be to bet against our instinct and take the Bills, but because we didn’t catch it soon enough the line shifted from Bills-3.5 to -5.5. All of the value in that line evaporated quickly. That being said there are angles still to bet on in this one. One of the angles we like for this game is a lot of points. Yank pointed out how the Bills couldn’t put away Skylar Thompson and Burrow even with a banged-up OLine has to be better than that. Add in the fact that the Bills can score in 30 seconds whenever they so choose, we like this game to feature a lot of points, and a lot of touchdowns at that. I’m spreading my wealth on the over in points as well as placing a few prop bets on anytime TD scorers and a same-game parlay featuring Burrow and Allen to throw more than 1.5 TDs each. With that, I’ve certainly locked in a rock fight that will end 9 – 6, so my apologies America.
Yank’s Pick: $2.35 on the Bengals+6 (-118) and $5.50 on a Bengals+8.5/Game Over 40.5 parlay (+115)
Sam’s Pick: $4.40 on the Bills/Bengals Over 48.5 points (-110), $3.00 on a Chiefs/Niners/Bills ML Parlay (+158), $7.00 on Burrow and Allen Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+163), and $1.50 each on anytime TDs for Diggs (+110), Chase (+115), Mixon (+130), Higgins (+200), and Knox (+175)
The Dallas Cowboys @ the San Francisco 49ers-4 (Sunday @ 6:30 PM ET on FOX)
Sam: I’m not going to overthink this one too much. The Dallas Cowboys have been Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde this season. Like last week, they started the game as though they’d never played football before and finished with touchdown after touchdown. They’ve got some explosive players like Lamb and Pollard on offense and Parsons on defense. That being said, they’re going up against a team that’s offensive talent has made their Mr. Irrelevant QB get Tom Brady comparisons and they have a defense to stop anyone in their tracks when things don’t go as well for their 3rd string QB. The 49ers have looked unstoppable, so I have no reason to galaxy-brain myself and take the Cowboys. I did adjust the spread to 49ers-3 to give myself a little wiggle room in case this one comes down to a field goal, but I’m not sure that is in question.
Yank: Easiest explanation of the weekend. I am done betting against San Francisco. They have the best offensive-skill players in the league. They have a top 5 (maybe top 2?) defensive line. They are well-coached on both sides of the ball. They have a two-day rest advantage in this game. I still don’t believe in Purdy, but honestly, how many times has my fully believing in someone been a bad sign for their gambling reliability? Good luck stopping this Niners team. You’ll find me betting on San Francisco every week in this space until they lose.
Yank’s Pick: $4.56 on the Niners-3.5 (-114) and $6.00 on a Chiefs/Niners ML parlay (-120)
Sam’s Pick: $7.40 on the Niners-3 (-148), $3.00 on a Chiefs/Niners/Bills ML Parlay (+158), and $3.00 on a Chiefs/Niners ML Parlay (-119)
| Yank | Sam | |
| Risk | $18.41 | $29.33 |
| Potential Earnings | $17.32 | $33.00 |
One Last Line 