Intro by Yank
We’ve arrived at conference championship weekend, and as usual, it’s hard to believe we’re here already. Only four teams left, only two picks left to make. It feels like just yesterday Sam and I were discussing strategies for Week 1 and now we’re staring down the barrel of the cold dark offseason. Before we get to all that there are some great matchups left, including two awesome games today. While our money-winning (or lack thereof) record leaves something to be desired we’ve been solid against the spread these playoffs. Two weeks left to capitalize. Let’s win some money.
2023 Playoff Betting Records
| Yank | Sam | |||
| Bet Type | Win | Loss | Win | Loss |
| Moneyline | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Spread | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Over/Under | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Props | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Grand Total | 7 | 10 | 10 | 12 |
2023 Playoff Betting Ledger
| Yank | Sam |
| -$4.05 | -$5.82 |
Conference Championship Picks
The San Francisco 49ers @ the Philadelphia Eagles-2.5 (3:00 PM ET on FOX)
Sam: While a matchup of teams I’m not too fond of, this should be a good one. The Eagles have been undeniably great all season and the 49ers are riding a massive win streak, even with their 3rd string QB at the helm. I think this game is about as much of a toss-up as you’ll find, so I won’t be surprised when the Eagles ultimately take care of business. That being said, betting is about trying to find value and we think the value is on the 49ers this week. You’re probably wondering why, since the Eagles dominated the Giants last week and the 49ers struggled to get past the Cowboys who couldn’t get out of their own way. Well here’s our lean: the Eagles looked so dominant because they played the Giants. As much as we talked the Giants up last week, they were the 29th-ranked defense by DVOA. Meanwhile, the 49ers played the Cowboys, who have the 2nd best defense according to DVOA. Who has the #1 defense you ask? The 49ers. So the Eagles are going from playing a team with basically no defense to a team with the best defense in football. We don’t think points are going to come as easily this week. At the end of the day, the Eagles are good enough to win this one, but with everyone believing in the Eagles this week (74% of the tickets), we’re taking the value on the 9ers.
Yank: Sam has eloquently laid out our reasons to doubt the Eagles, especially since everyone loves them this week. Instead of more analysis, here is a song to honor the decision I made last week regarding SF:
🎵 Niners, Niners, Niners, Niners,
Junior, Double, Triple, Niners
Going to give the birds a primer
On physical play
This sundayyyy, let’s win some mo-neyyy🎵
(You rule)
Yank’s Pick: $10.00 on the 49ers ML (+130)
Sam’s Pick: $10.00 on the 49ers ML (+135), $1.00 on Christian McCaffery 2+ TDs (+400), $1.50 on Miles Sanders TD (+155), and $1.50 on Dallas Goedert TD +185
The Cincinnati Bengals @ the Kansas City Chiefs-1.5 (6:30 PM ET on CBS)
Yank: What an awesome football game this should be. Mahomes vs Burrow for me is unquestionably the matchup of the top two killers at the QB position. And speaking of being a killer, Burrow has slain the Chiefs the last three times in a row. The Bengals also ripped the Bills limb from limb on the road last week; hard to imagine a team looking more impressive. On the opposing sideline, Mahomes is dealing with a potentially significant injury. And yet…doesn’t all that feel a bit too easy? The Chiefs have made 5 straight AFC title games. Patrick Mahomes is fully participating in practice and walking around without a limp or a boot. All the while the Cincinnati Bengals are running around acting excited about returning to “Burrowhead”. The line still implies they’d be favored on a neutral field. Somehow, wildly, we’ve reached the “nobody believes in us” zone for the Kansas City EFFING Chiefs. I trust Mahomes more than Burrow. I trust Andy Reid more than Zac Taylor. Give those guys some extra motivation and there’s no chance I pick against them.
Sam: This game is scintillating, and the crazy thing is, there’s almost no way it doesn’t live up to the hype. As Yank lays out, the level of disrespect for the Chiefs is mind-boggling. I get it, everyone loves the new thing, and how can you not love Burrow and Chase, a college fling that blossomed into a serious romance? But let’s not kid ourselves. The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, arguably the most talented QB whose success comes so easy he is verging on Lebron James-level of making the spectacular seem mundane (FYI, I’m stealing that take from Yank, sorry not sorry). I have nothing but respect for the Bengals and they may well win this matchup, but you’re telling me I can have the greatest player of his generation to win straight up for even money?? That’s a good bet, even if it loses.
Yank’s Pick: $11 on the Chiefs-1(-110) and $7.55 on the Chiefs-3(+145)
Sam’s Pick: $10 on the Chiefs ML (+100), $1.00 on Ja’Marr Chase 2+ TDs (+500), $2.00 on Jerrick McKinnon TD (+170)
| Yank | Sam | |
| Risk | $28.55 | $27.00 |
| Potential Earnings | $33.95 | $41.00 |
One Last Line 