Intro by Sam
Super Bowl Weekend is here and we’ve got a good ole’ fashion gunfight set for 6:30 ET this Sunday in the wild, wild west. This matchup is shaping up to be a rootin’ tootin’ good time. As our annual tradition demands, we’ll release our picks in two parts. This post, part 1, will cover our prop picks, and part 2 will cover our picks on the game itself.
Super Bowl LVII Prop Bets
Passing Prop Bets
Sam’s picks:
$5.00 on Mahomes U295.5 Passing yards -115,
Yank’s picks:
$5.50 on Mahomes U294.5 Passing yards -110
Yank: The John Wayne of the modern NFL rides into Arizona looking for his second Lombardi trophy. We all know Sherriff Patrick Mahomes always has a chance to go off but these prop bets are all about v-a-l-u-e. This number opened in the mid-280s and has risen into the mid-290s over the last two weeks as money pours in on Mahomes-related props. Philly knows they are up against a gunslinger they will want to run the ball and limit his possessions, and their defense will be happy to try to goad the Chiefs into runs and short passes as well. Unders aren’t sexy but winning money is.
Sam: Yank lays out the plan for robbing the bank in this one. Mahomes line keeps shootin’ up, but it’s going to be rough for him to meet that total. Not only is he going up against an oppressive pass rush and good coverage in the secondary, but he’s not got the plethora of weapons he once had. He’s made do with the likes of butterfingers Valdez-Scantling and famous tik-toker Juju Smith-Schuster, but with those weapons locked up in the local jailhouse, it’s going to be a question of how many yards he can muster out of Kelce. We don’t think it’s enough to get the job done, even if we’re pulling for him to do it.
Rushing Prop Bets
Sam’s picks:
$4.00 on Mahomes under 19.5 rush yards -118,
$4.00 on Hurts under 50.5 rush yards -110,
$4.00 on Kenneth Gainwell anytime TD +390,
$4.00 on Kenneth Gainwell O19.5 rush yards -110,
$3.00 on Miles Sanders anytime TD +135, and
$3.00 on Miles Sanders 2+ TDs +800
$3.00 on Philly first score – Rushing TD +205
Yank’s picks:
$2.47 on Boston Scott Anytime TD +550
$5.00 on Miles Sanders Anytime TD +120
$1.00 on Miles Sanders 2TD +700
$2.78 on Kenneth Gainwell Anytime TD +360
$5.00 on Hurts Anytime TD +100
Sam: The Philly Offensive Line looks like trouble, and the safes will be unguarded after they clear out the Chiefs defenders. We’re expecting a roll on the banks with Sanders, Scott, and Gainwell featured in a series of prop bets. We’ve seen all season long that there’s no question that the Eagles can run the ball. What about this Chiefs defense makes you think any differently? We’ve dabbled on Sanders anytime TD and 2+ TDs as the featured back, but Gainwell and Scott offer high odds despite plenty of opportunity with Philly’s consistent rotation. And with the ground game being such a point of emphasis, I don’t see how the Eagles first score isn’t a rushing TD. Circle the wagons around these backs and you’re bound for a serious payout. Lastly, both of these quarterbacks are mobile but have shown in recent weeks, they’ll only put their heads down when absolutely necessary. Mahomes is nursing a sprained ankle and Hurts won’t need to scramble with the runningbacks doing the bulk of the work. I think it’s fun to think they’ll easily meet their totals, but I’m going to take the unders.
Yank: When Nick Sirianni saddles up his horse to ride out into this Super Bowl, his cowboy code is clear: a) he understands the value of possessions when playing a team like the Chiefs – he will go for it on fourth downs to keep drives alive. b) He’s not afraid to pound the rock with all of his RBs and Jalen Hurts. c) He’s got one of the league’s best red zone offenses going up against a bad red zone defense. The Eagles are not bringing a knife to this shootout, they’re going to try to score a ton of TDs. The value on this series of bets is on multiple rushing TDs (though backs receiving a TD cashes too). If we get rushing TDs by two members of the eagles’ backfield (or two scores by Miles Sanders), we win, and if more than two of these guys score we win big.
Defensive Prop Bets
Sam’s picks:
$5.00 on Will Hasson Reddick record a sack? – Yes -150
Yank’s picks:
$5.00 on Haason Reddick more sacks than Chris Jones +105
Sam: We know this Philly defense will get after the quarterback, so why not steer the cattle in the direction of Philly’s best outside pass rusher? Reddick has undeniably been awesome for Philly this year, so we’re expecting a big game out of him. Lastly, when it comes to Super Bowl weekend, more than any week during the regular season. The casinos actively hike up the odds on bets they know are likely to win. They want you and me to stay away from those bets and chase the fun, high odds. Let’s not give them what they want. Vegas says Reddick’s getting a sack, well I say Reddick is getting a sack.
Yank: Similar rationale to Sam here, Reddick is a beast betting him to cause havoc is good business. Given that Reddick has much better odds than Jones to have a sack on most sportsbooks, these plus odds head-to-head seemed like a better value play.
Game Specials Prop Bets
Sam’s picks:
$3.00 on Will there be a 2 pt conversion attempt – Yes +110
$4.00 on Highest scoring Q U20.5 -134
$10.00 on the team with more time of possession – Philly -144
$5.00 on Will the game be tied after 0-0? Yes -115
$4.00 on KC Net Yards U365.5 -115
Yank’s picks:
$9.00 on Will the game be tied after 0-0? Yes -125
$6.00 on Game TDs O5.5 -120
$13.70 on Opening Kickoff Touchback -137
$9.00 on Chiefs O1.5 FGs -118
Yank: Finally a rapid-fire bonanza to close us out in the desert:
Opening kickoff touchback is my favorite bet on the board, max adrenaline for the kicker, and both have the leg to put the ball in the stands. Let’s get a W in the first 5 seconds of action.
The next two are scoring related: as mentioned I expect a lot of TDs. We might go over 5.5 in the first half. I also think there’s a decent shot both first possessions are TDs, which puts the tie in play early. I’m expecting a close game so the score being knotted up at some point feels like good value.
Finally, Chiefs O1.5 FGs makes me sad, but Andy Reid has proven he’s willing to take the points repeatedly. Frankly, I hope this bet loses because the Chiefs score so many TDs, go Chiefs.
Sam: Yank touched on Siranni being a wanted man when it comes to pushing the envelope on 4th down attempts and I think that carries over to the extra point. Count me in on a 2 point conversion at some point in this ball game. Additionally, Yank and I aligned on this game ending up tied at some point. I think it’ll happen early, say a 7-7 start, but I’m not going to rule out a miraculous Mahomes come back at some point either.
And finally, you all know the theme at this point: the Eagles will dominate on the ground and thus the clock. We’re looking at low-scoring quarters (under 20.5 in any quarter) and a lot of Time of Possession for the Eagles. That will limit the number of opportunities the Chiefs will have to move the ball, hence betting Mahomes passing yards under as mentioned earlier, and the total yards for the Chiefs in this section.
| Yank | Sam | |
| Risk | $58.95 | $56.00 |
| Potential Earnings | $76.67 | $84.85 |
One Last Line 
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