Intro by Sam
Welcome to Season Fore of One Last Line, where everything is made up and the points usually involve us losing money. If you’re not familiar with our work, feel free to check out our overview from our inaugural season here. We’ll be bringing takes, lines, and the occasional winning bet your way all season. Before we dive into the picks for WEEK ONE, we’ll quickly recap our disappointing season 3.
Future scientists will study how two men were able to put together two completely different halves of the season – call us the reverse Lions. Regardless of the first half of the season, Yank and I walked away from last season feeling like what we thought we knew was not all that much in the long run. We’re going into this season trying to find a balance of our opinions with the strategies that have led to success at times.
For instance, you’ll see us stick to these key strategies:
- Division games are usually close, no matter the difference in talent.
- Coaches more than players make a difference in the final spread outcome.
- Hype disparities can help you find upset picks.
- Every week there is an obvious no-doubter teaser team, and they usually kill the tease.
And lastly, we’re trying something new this season. Instead of limiting our exposure by only picking 3 games (though we couldn’t always restrain ourselves), we’re going to take more shots at success. Diversify! Diversify! Diversify! While this will undoubtedly end in catastrophe, Yank put it perfectly when he said “I’ll probably regret saying this, but it’s hard to go 0-9.” And thus, without further pomp and circumstance, Week 1 picks:
Week 1 Picks
The Collaboration:
The Los Angeles Rams+5 @ the Seattle Seahawks
Sam: No Cooper Kupp here is a tough look for our bet, but we’re banking on a couple of things. First, Sean McVay bouncing back after a brutal Super Bowl hangover. Second, a regression from everyone’s offseason darling, the Seahawks. It feels like everyone is taking for granted that Geno Smith truly took a leap last season, despite multiple years’ worth of evidence that he was, what? Fine? Even if he is just that, this is a division game that will undoubtedly be hard-fought. This game meets almost all of the criteria we’re looking for this season. Division game. Check. McVay is a good coach. Check. The line is close to the tease-able range. Check. The hype differential between these two teams is too great. Check.
Yank: It’s great to be back folks! Here I am, once again picking the Rams to Sam’s chagrin. Week One is all about going against the prevailing narrative. Everyone seems to think this Rams team will be awful, but there’s some real “nobody believes in us” potential considering they have several key contributors back including Stafford at QB. Meanwhile, are we absolutely sure Geno Smith is bankable to cover more than a FG? Add in the fact that it’s a weird division game with a strange line and I’m happy to take a shot that the Rams keep it close.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Rams+5 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Rams+5 (-110)
The Carolina Panthers+3.5 @ the Atlanta Falcons
Yank: Week One also presents a big opportunity to take advantage of coaching upgrades. Matt Rhule is a great college coach but his time in Carolina never clicked. Frank Reich brings in professional experience and most importantly an excellent DC in Ejiro Evero. It’s easy to forget now but the Panthers defense almost carried them to an unlikely playoff berth last year. They are the most bankable unit in this game. I’m riding with that defense in what should be another tightly contested division game.
Sam: Coaching upgrades will definitely be a focus for us this week and likely for the weeks to come, at least until the lines adjust to the improvement. But the other element that we’ll be paying attention to is bad coaching, and that starts with Arthur Smith. Are we sure this guy is a good coach? The way people are talking about how the Falcons are poised to take a leap, seem to forget who is at the helm. Let’s see them not lose a close game before we consider them playoff contenders. And finally, this is a division game. These teams will bring a fight and we think that will be enough to close the field goal gap.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Panthers+3.5 (-109)
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Panthers+3.5 (-108)
The Dallas Cowboys @ the New York Giants+3.5
Sam: The Giants were everyone’s spread bet darling to start the season and we both feel like that will continue to start this year. Have you heard one good thing about the Giants this off-season despite drastically upgrading their weapons? Half of their starters from last season played for the Chiefs in Week One and just dropped the most balls I’ve ever seen in one game. They’re being talked about as a team likely to regress, and while there are some concerns about turnover luck bouncing against them this season, I think we’ll catch them while no one believes in them. Finally, as I did for the Rams, this game meets a lot of our criteria: division game, well coached, and being on the right side of the hype teeter-totter.
Yank: I can’t help but back my Gmen in the nightcap. Brian Daboll is a bankable top-tier NFL coach already. The Giants upgraded the offensive skill positions in a significant way. More importantly than any of that though, Mike McCarthy fired his OC in the offseason to take over playcalling duties himself. He has not called plays in an NFL game since 2018, a time before TikTok, ChatGPT, and COVID-19. Good luck to him – I’ll be happy to play the other side while he tries to figure it out.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Giants+3.5 (-115)
Sam’s Pick: $3.00 on the Giants+3 (-102) and $2.00 on the Giants ML (+152)
The New York Jets @ the Buffalo Bills-2.5
Yank: If we’ve said it once we’ve said it a million times, there’s no time like Week One to go against the Hard Knocks team. They always come in with significant momentum from the betting public that has nothing to do with actual football skills. This year in particular everyone really wants to forget that Aaron Rodgers was bad last year? Like backbreaking picks week after week bad? I haven’t forgotten because I lost money on those picks. Hopefully, we can make some of that up here, where the Bills should definitely be laying more than a field goal at home.
Sam: Is this a division game? Yes, though we often prefer to be on the underdog. Do we have a coaching advantage? Maybe. A little less sure, but I’ll tell you I was definitely not impressed by Saleh’s weird hierarchy of competitors on Hard Knocks. Like, come on. You’re not a psychologist or an anthropologist man. Stick to football. Most importantly, do we have a hype differential? Absolutely. Like Yank said, everyone seems to be expecting Rodgers to sling it all over the field like it’s 2012. Well, outside of Garrett Wilson, he’s throwing to the same dudes from 2012 and he’s behind an Offensive Line that could possibly end his career. Put them firmly in the let’s wait and see bucket.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Bills-2.5 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Bills-2.5 (-110)
Tease Killer of the Week:
The Arizona Cardinals+7 @ the Washington Commanders
Sam: I, like the rest of you, have no desire to put my hard-earned money in the hands of the Cardinals. They went from a joke of a head coach in Kliff Kingsbury to a parody of Kendall Roy at the helm. If you’re thrown off by what I mean, just watch this clip of Jonathan Gannon and tell me I’m wrong. With all of that on the table, you have to wonder why on earth we’d do this. Well, a majority of people are expecting to put this game in the bank, but Vegas has a lot of money from games just like this. Ask yourself, do we know anything about the Cardinals? No! We don’t even know who they’re playing at Quarterback (LOL coaches are so annoying). So without knowing anything, we’re assuming they’re a whole-ass touchdown worse than a team that could maybe be the second-worst team in the NFL? Would you be shocked if I told you that the Commanders were the second-worst team in the NFL at the end of the season? I’m guessing not. Yank and I are proponents of a philosophy that the talent gap isn’t that big when you’ve reached the final stage of making it to the NFL, so even though we can’t name a single player on the Cardinals, we don’t believe you can just assume they’re going to get smacked in every game.
Yank: I hate this pick, but some facts are unavoidable. Several of your friends are assuredly taking Washington for their eliminator pool this week. An overwhelming amount of the bets on this game are on Washington. Ron Rivera still stinks. Sam Howell shouldn’t be favored by a touchdown over the Alabama Crimson Tide much less an actual NFL team. Generally, we like to pick these tease-killer teams to win outright. It seems like they often come up just short, so I’m going to try a new strategy this year where I exclusively bet these games against the spread.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Cardinals+7 (-106)
Sam’s Pick: $3.00 on the Cardinals+7 (-106) and $2.00 on the Cardinals ML (+285)
The Confrontation:
The Houston Texans @ the Baltimore Ravens-9.5
Yank: Another chance to take advantage of a simultaneous coach and QB upgrade here before the rest of the world catches on. DeMeco Ryans is young, charismatic, and at the forefront of modern NFL defensive schematics, none of which can be said about Lovie Smith. CJ Stroud is not Davis Mills. I like the Ravens a lot this year and don’t plan to bet against them much, but this line is too high. The outcome of this game likely is never in much doubt, but Houston will hang around enough to cover this huge number.
Sam: Going into this season Yank and I both penciled the Ravens as a team to have a bounceback year. Like the Giants, many are writing them off despite the fact that they’re coming off of a snakebit injury-plagued season, and also like the Giants, they vastly upgraded their offensive playmakers. I’m not out on the Texans being competitive this year for the reasons that Yank laid out, but I’ve seen how Lamar can put a team away quickly when he’s got a lot of haters looking at him, and I think this season he’ll be out for blood.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Texans+10 (-115)
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Ravens-10 (-110)
The Isolation:
The Tennessee Titans+3 @ the New Orleans Saints
Sam: We’ll see how far this philosophy takes us, but I’m not ready to buy into off-season hype. The Saints added Derek Carr, they’ve got some weapons back, and they’ve got an easy schedule. Meanwhile, everyone is tired of America’s most boring team, the Titans. Just because they’re boring, doesn’t mean they’re ineffective. Last season was a train wreck, but like the Ravens, they’ve had all of the off-season to heal and recover from a tough injury-filled season. I think there’s an obvious coaching advantage with Mike Vrabel > Denis Allen and the Titans are going into this one under the radar. We like that combination.
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Titans+3 (-112)
The Las Vegas Raiders @ the Denver Broncos-3
Sam: There’s arguably no greater coaching upgrade than going from Nate Hackett to Sean Payton. Sure, we don’t know what a year off did to Payton, but we sure as hell saw what happened to the Broncos under Hackett last year. Good God. And sure, I’m nervous about what Russel Wilson still has to offer, but I’m going to take a chance on them early with the idea that the line hasn’t caught up to how much of a coaching change will impact this roster.
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Broncos-3 (-110)
The Jacksonville Jaguars @ the Indianapolis Colts+5
Sam: If you’ve made it this far, this pick might be your final straw. You’re probably thinking to yourself, “This guy really wants me to bet on the Cardinals, Broncos, and the Colts? GTFOH.” I get it. No, I really do. It’s insane. I’m fully expecting to be bankrupt after Week One, but I think there’s a possibility that there is another coaching/culture upgrade that happened when Reich/Saturday left. Not to mention, adding a talent like Anthony Richardson, who can easily make plays with his feet, could make this division game a little more exciting than most would expect. Once again, the team I’m betting against, in this case, the Jaguars, has a whole lot of hype behind them coming into the season, but are we sure they’re that good? I was left unimpressed by what they accomplished against a disastrous AFC South last season and even though I like the addition of Calvin Ridley, I’m not ready to give them my vote of confidence. We made our bed going into this week on hammering home division games, coaching upgrades, and hype differences and you can’t tell me this doesn’t fit the bill.
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Colts+5 (-120)
The Bank – Week 1
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $100 | $100 |
| Risk: | $30 | $38 |
| Record: | 0 – 0 | 0 – 0 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 0 – 0 | 0 – 0 |
| Record on the Tease Killer of the Week: | 0 – 0 | 0 – 0 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 