Intro by Yank
It’s good to be back! Watching teams Sam and I bet on throw pick-sixes, get field goals blocked for TDs and just generally look like they’ve been infected with a biblical plague truly means the NFL season has arrived. Typically we see these results and we radically shift our takes based on the Week 1 data point. This has not had great results. This year we are going to work on being steadfast in our preseason opinions and trying to go against the overreactions. We will see if this can help keep locusts and disease from overrunning us, or if further sacrifice will be required from the NFL gods.
Recap
We are now making too many picks to recap them all in long form. Here’s a speed round summary. We were right about a couple of things! The Rams should not have been big dogs to the Seahawks and the Commanders should not be favored by 7 over anyone. Sam also had good calls on the Titans and Ravens. We were also wrong about a lot of things! The Giants and Panthers both fell apart; the Giants right at the beginning and Carolina in the second half. No horse teams came through for Sam either as the Broncos and Colts failed to cover.
Finally, and most fittingly for us, the Monday night game was the most One Last Line situation possible. If someone told you Aaron Rodgers would only play 4 plays before the game started, how much money would you have bet on Bills-2.5? $1000? $100,000? Alas, my friends, gambling is not for the faint of heart. In a no-doubt-about-perfect situation for the cover, the Bills managed to lose outright with Josh Allen looking more like Chuck Knoblauch by game’s end. We can’t win for losing here (fade us!) but we fight on!
Week 2 Picks
The Collaboration:
The Green Bay Packers+1.5 @ the Atlanta Falcons
Yank: Rinse and repeat my rationale from last week. Desmond Ridder is not a good QB. He threw for 115 yards last week! I don’t believe in Arthur Smith or his vision for this offense. Meanwhile, on the other side, Matt LaFleur is close to an 80% winning percentage for his career! Jordan Love is not a world-beater but LaFleur will make him right more often than not. It’s crazy that Atlanta is favored in this game.
Sam: This could be an overreaction, but I wanted to bet on the Packers last week and decided not to at the last minute. LaFleur has demonstrated that he’s a competent, if not all-around good coach, and as much as I want them to suck, the Packers have a strong structure and good overall culture. They know how to put a competitive team out on the field, even with a question mark still at quarterback. With a clear advantage at the coaching level, the Packers have a good chance of walking into Atlanta and taking care of business.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Packers ML(+113)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Packers ML (+114)
The San Francisco 49ers-7 @ the Los Angeles Rams
Sam: This one goes against some of our strategies in the sense that it’s a divisional game and both teams are well-coached, but neither of us thinks this is going to be close. Shanahan has owned McVay and the Rams the last few seasons and they showed that once again they have very few weaknesses. The offensive playmakers are on another level entirely, and the defensive line will get after Stafford early and often. 49ers by a mile.
Yank: Most of my picks this week are intended to swing back against Week 1 overreactions. In this case, the Rams looked great last week which has people back in their corner. The problem is their preseason win total was so low because they have one of the least talented rosters overall in the league. Unfortunately for them that will matter playing San Francisco who are nothing but chainsaws and razor blades on both sides of the ball. This could get ugly.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the 49ers-7 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the 49ers-7 (-105) and $3.00 on a 6-Point Teaser with 49ers-1.5 and the Cowboys-3 (-120)
Tease Killer of the Week:
The Las Vegas Raiders @ the Buffalo Bills-8.5
Yank: This Bills team gets too much respect plain and simple. Their coach sprints his punter onto the field the second a ball carrier is stopped a millimeter short on third down irrespective of field position. Their quarterback is liable to turn it over three times on a moment’s notice. Their defense is so anonymous I’m not sure you can name a single player on it (Damar Hamlin doesn’t count if he doesn’t get activated on game day). This Raiders team seems like they may be just fine? They could easily lose this game 27-20. But, if the Bulls totally fell apart and lost this one would you really be that surprised?
Sam: We’re hedging that the Bills still have serious flaws and that the Raiders are competent. Jimmy Garrapolo has demonstrated that he can manage an offense in an Alex Smith-ian kind of way and they’re capable enough on defense. Meanwhile, the Bills are an absolute wild card. Without Von Miller, the defense hasn’t had a lot of juice and Josh Allen looks like someone is controlling him on Madden. Who else just chucks the ball downfield with reckless abandon? We could be laughing stocks and bought into an overreaction to the Bills loss, but with 70% of the money on the Bills, we feel safe that more people are expecting a get-right performance from the Bills than the implosion we think they could be staring at.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Raiders+8.5 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Raders+8.5 (-115)
The Confrontation:
The Seattle Seahawks @ the Detroit Lions-4.5
Yank: Another prime overreaction situation here. The Lions beat the Chiefs so they must be good! Seattle lost to the Rams so they must stink! In reality, in preseason these teams had similar win totals. Pete Carroll is a better coach than Dan Campbell. The mighty Lions offense managed 14 whole points against the Chiefs without Chris Jones. I’m definitely not sure they are bankable to score enough to beat a decent team by more than 4.
Sam: This is a scary one. The line opened at 6 and seemed like a big overreaction to the Seahawks losing badly to the Rams. I thought that it would’ve been bet down almost immediately but it stayed at 6 for a few days. Eventually, the line came down, but only after the Seahawks announced that they would be without both starting offensive tackles… hmm. At the end of the day, I said I’m sticking with my guns, and like in Week 1, I’m fading the Seahawks. While I also think the Lions have wayyyy too much hype, Goff is good enough when he has time to throw and he shouldn’t be in a rush against a Seahawks pass rush that couldn’t get past the Rams dismal OLine.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Seahawks+4.5 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Lions-4.5 (-105)
The Isolation:
The Indianapolis Colts @ The Houston Texans-1
Yank: I liked this Texans team preseason because I think DeMeco Ryans is a huge coaching upgrade and I believe in CJ Stroud. I also live in Indianapolis so I watch a lot of Colts football. Their offense is putrid. The defense is good so this whole game could be putrid, I wouldn’t recommend watching (I will be, yay for NFL-forced regional viewing!). I think the Texans show they are slightly more ready than this Colts team.
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Texans ML (-115)
The New York Giants-4 @ the Arizona Cardinals
Sam: Another take I’m riding into Week 2 is that the Giants aren’t *that* bad. Admittedly this take got out to the worst possible start possible losing 40-0 to the Cowboys, but Week 1 is always weird and things turned early for the Giants in that one. I expect a bounce-back performance this week against a weaker opponent that has at least some tape now. Giants steady the ship this week and take care of business in the desert.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Giants-4 (-110)
The Baltimore Ravens+3.0 @ the Cincinnati Bengals
Sam: I liked the Ravens coming into the year, and they made me some money against Yank in the confrontation last week. I’m going to back them once again, this time as underdogs in a division game. Sure, I don’t like that the injury bug has once again resurfaced and that the Bengals are coming off of a disastrous performance against the Browns. That being said, I like the Ravens in this one because they are on a revenge tour and the Bengals might struggle to start this season again like they did last year.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Ravens+3 (+100)
The Los Angeles Chargers @ The Tennessee Titans+3
Sam: This pick is a simple equation once again. I’m backing the better coach in Vrabel. They’re a home underdog against a team that has a lot of hype but not a lot of experience to back it up. I wasn’t encouraged by the Titans offense last week against the Saints, but they’ll be going up against an already injury-riddled Chargers defense that will have its hands full trying to stop Derrick Henry.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Titans+3 (-118)
The Washington Commanders @ the Denver Broncos-3
Sam: I know, I know. There’s no chance this covers. The only reason I’m betting this one is because Yank and I discussed trying to hang on to our takes instead of getting swayed off of them after early returns. Let’s hope that against a weaker opponent and a head coach advantage, the Broncos look more like the team they did in the first half than the team they did in the second half last week.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Broncos-3.5 (-110)
The Kansas City Chiefs-3.5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sam: This feels like a no-brainer. I’m taking the Chiefs in a bounce-back game after a Week 1 loss when they played well enough to win (if it weren’t for the 100 drops). They’ll be looking to get right, and they’ve got Kelce and Jones back this week. Home or away, I’d pretty much take the Chiefs to win any game by more than 3.5 points.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Chiefs-3.5 (+100)
The New York Jets @ the Dallas Cowboys-9.5
Sam: Even with Aaron Rodgers, the shaky Jets OLine will have trouble keeping their QB from getting ravaged all game long. I expect Wilson to see ghosts early and have trouble making plays. That being said, I can see this one being close. The Jets defense is no joke and I’m sure the Jets will try to bring some wrinkles to the offense that can make this game feel a little “trappy.” Luckily for me, I was pulling out my phone to bet the Cowboys-3.5 right as Rodgers went down with his Achilles injury. FanDuel wasn’t quick enough for me so I was able to sneak a bet in while all of the other books were taking the line down.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Cowboys-3.5 (-108) and $3.00 on a 6-Point Teaser with 49ers-1.5 and the Cowboys-3 (-120)
The Bank – Week 2
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $89.27 | $90.68 |
| Risk: | $25.00 | $58.00 |
| Record: | 2 – 4 | 4 – 7 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 2 – 4 | 4 – 5 |
| Record on the Tease Killer of the Week: | 1 – 0 | 1 – 1 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 