Intro by Sam
Another week, another fruitless endeavor. We’ve yet to capture any benefits from our updated strategies. We’re not giving up quite yet, but are facing a daunting task in Week 3. Neither Yank nor I are quite sure how to proceed this week, but before our picks, we’ll quickly recap Week 2.
Recap
In the Collaboration, we were somehow on the end of a ludicrously uninspiring performance by the Packers in the 4th quarter against Atlanta and an infuriatingly annoying field goal by Sean McVay to push our 49ers-7 bet against the Rams. We came nowhere close in our TKOW when the Raiders no-showed in Buffalo. Our previously pretty steady Collaboration picks have been somewhat disastrous here so far.
Yank returned to the winners podium by picking the Seahawks in what was an obvious overreaction game, while I was a sucker for the Lions. Yank rounded out his week with another blowout loss in the form of betting the Texans ML against the Colts. While Yank couldn’t find luck in the Isolation, I found my only success of the week here. The Cowboys, Chiefs, Titans, and Ravens all did me the favor of winning and covering. No small feat! While the Giants and Broncos couldn’t get the job done. One more win last week and I would’ve had a positive number, but instead, we’re back in the red for another week.
Week 3 Picks
The Collaboration:
The New Orleans Saints @ the Green Bay Packers-1
Sam: This team burned us last week, but like we said at the beginning of the season, we’re going to try and stay away from overreactions. While the Packers lost last week, if you look back at the game flow there is a case to be made that they should have won that game – or at the very least they had a 90% win probability in the 4th quarter! We get them again as an undervalued team at home, going up against a team that has some wins on their record but not a whole lot more to write home about.
Yank: I agree with Sam’s actual rationale but this is also a vibes pick for me. My Dad and Uncle are at this game and it just feels like it’s going to be a beautiful day in Green Bay, WI and they are going to see a win.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Packers ML (-118)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Packers ML (-115)
The Dallas Cowboys-13 @ the Arizona Cardinals
Sam: I don’t know what happened here. I decided to parlay the Cowboys and Chiefs spreads as they stand together. While the reasoning makes no sense, here’s the process I made to come to this decision. Both of these games made me nervous. I wanted to pick just one but felt like whichever game I picked, the other one would cover and the one I was on would lose. Thus, I decided to tie the fate of both picks to the risk of one bet. The Cowboys should absolutely take care of business against the Cardinals. As we identified in Week 1, the Cardinals were a little closer to competent than most people anticipated, but they haven’t seen a defense like the Cowboys. I fully expect Micah Parsons to once again make Dobbs look like the backup QB he is and the offense to move the ball like the Giants did in the 2nd half last week. The fear here is that the Cowboys have won two straight games in blowout fashion, I’m not sure how many more you can expect in a row without something gumming up the works. Let’s cross our fingers.
Yank: The Cowboys D Line feels like one of the most bankable things in the entire NFL. It’s extremely difficult to throw the ball against them because they are constantly in the backfield. I watched the Cardinals last week against the Giants so I can confirm, they are not very good. You will likely see me betting the Cowboys a lot in this space moving forward because whether I win money on them or they lose I will be happy regardless.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 parlay on the Cowboys-12.5 and the Chiefs-12.5 (+264)
Yanks Pick: $10 on a parlay of Cowboys-2.5, Chiefs-2.5, and Ravens ML (-134)
The Chicago Bears @ the Kansas City Chiefs-12.5
Sam: As I stated in the breakdown of the Cowboys-Cardinals game, this parlay makes absolutely no sense. I’m equally worried about this game, and hopefully for no reason. Me, you, your brother, your grandmother, and your grandmother’s grandmother are all expecting the Chiefs to dominate the Bears. And they should. But is this a trap game? Is everyone so out on them and Justin Fields blaming the coaches, that the Bears actually come together and put up the fight of their life? The Chiefs haven’t been exactly dominant this year. managing a meager 18.5 points per game to start the year. Throw in that last year this was a 3-point game and you have my nerves through the roof. Nevertheless, I can’t bring myself to bet on the Bears and I have to hope the Chiefs defense shuts out a confused and disgruntled Justin Fields.
Yank: The Bears literally have coaches quitting midweek. The QB is openly bashing the OC on ESPN. They’ve also been horrible through two games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have been very good, particularly on defense. Happy to back them to win by a FG.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 parlay on the Cowboys-12.5 and the Chiefs-12.5 (+264)
Yanks Pick: $10 on a parlay of Cowboys-2.5, Chiefs-2.5, and Ravens ML (-134)
Tease Killer of the Week:
No identified TKOW this week.
The Confrontation:
No identified Confrontation this week.
The Isolation:
The Los Angeles Chargers @ The Minnesota Vikings EVEN
Sam: I have to go with my team this week. I know things have looked ugly and a lot of the public thinks the Vikings aren’t any good this year, but I have a good feeling about this week and this team. The Vikings passing offense is one of the best in the NFL and they’re going up against a team that couldn’t stop Ryan Tannehill and his lowly cast of receivers. While this is a do-or-die game for both teams, the Vikings have a home-field and rest advantage. I have faith in my Vikings to come out on top.
Sam’s Pick: $7.00 on the Vikings ML (-110)
The Denver Broncos @ the Miami Dolphins-6
Sam: My fear with this pick is that I’m now falling into an overreaction. I’ve bet the Broncos the last two weeks because I believe that Sean Payton would account for a significant coaching upgrade. I’ve had both of their games on in the background and can’t seem to figure out why they’re struggling. Nevertheless, this pick is less about the Broncos and more about the Dolphins. This week I did some research into games where the favorite wins against the spread by more than one touchdown. While I still have some work to do, the premise I was working on is that teams with the best records are the teams that win in blowouts most frequently. Based on this brief study, this game has all the makings of that kind of blowout victory. The Broncos are traveling across the country to play at 9 a.m. their time and at this rate are going to end up as a sub .500 team. The Dolphins have one of the best offenses in the NFL and are most likely going to have one of the best records in the NFL when it’s all said and done. While it’s not foolproof, this theory may give us a slight edge in finding out when to bet favorites.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Dolphins-6 (-106)
The Philadelphia Eagles-5 @ the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sam: This week I’m diving into a Monday Night Football matchup. The Eagles fall into the same category that the Dolphins game did. The Eagles are going to have one of the best records in the NFC and they’re going to have a couple blowouts. Why not this week when they’re coming off of a Thursday Night football game (added rest) and going up against a team that has overachieved to this point? Everyone seems to think that the Bucs have been impressive to start this season, but let’s take a quick look at what they’ve actually accomplished. They barely managed to beat the Vikings in Week 1 when the Vikings turned the ball over 3 times in critical spots. The offense barely moved the ball all game. In Week 2, they played the Bears in a close game! It was close! Against the Bears! I’m anticipating that the shine will start to wear off Baker and the Bucs starting on Monday.
Sam’s Pick: $5.50 on the Eagles-5 (-110)
The Indianapolis Colts @ the Baltimore Ravens-8
Yank: The Colts have a good defense but they are not very deep. The Ravens may not run them out of the stadium, but they also should make life miserable all day for Gardner Minshew. Indy may look frisky for potions of this game, but I expect the Ravens talent advantage to eventually rule the day.
Yank’s Pick: $10 on a parlay of Cowboys-2.5, Chiefs-2.5, and Ravens ML (-134)
The Atlanta Falcons @ the Detroit Lions-3
Yank: I am going to bet against Atlanta every week this entire season. This is another opportunity to bet against Arthur Smith who is a bad coach and Desmond Ridder who is a bad QB.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Lions-3 (-110)
The Buffalo Bills-7 @ the Washington Commanders
The New England Patriots-3 @ the New York Jets
Yank: Finally for me an AFC East double-trouble parlay! The Pats absolutely HAVE to win this week to avoid going 0-3. Belichick owns the Jets. I’d also like to juice the odds by throwing in the Bills to take down the Commanders, who continue to start Sam Howell at QB. The Bills showed last week they still have some juice against bad teams at the very least. I’m definitely willing to bet that the Commanders are still bad.
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Bills and Pats MLs (+140)
The Bank – Week 3
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $79.82 | $87.05 |
| Risk: | $25.00 | $27.50 |
| Record: | 3 – 7 – 1 | 9 – 12 – 1 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 3 – 5 – 1 | 8 – 9 – 1 |
| Record on the Tease Killer of the Week: | 1 – 1 | 1 – 2 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 