Intro by Yank
Happy Ryder Cup Sunday! One of the best sports events we get to witness is a good reminder of a critical fact: if you’re reading this it’s too late. By the team you read this, Europe will likely have extinguished the US team’s faint hopes of extending a 30-year winning streak on home soil. If you’re reading this it’s also too late for your resident blog boys, who stayed up too late last night at various celebrations across the country and are now in all likelihood feeling the effects. And finally, if you’re reading this, it’s too late for you, you’re destined to lose money. Unless you turn back the clock, dear reader, and as we always insist, fade us!
Recap
Last week our results were good, bad, and ugly. On the good side of the ledger, the Packers came through for us in Lambeau (albeit after some serious doubts), Sam also had the Phins and the Eagles and I had the Lions, Bills, and the Pats all of whom came through. The bad was teasing our good Chiefs pick with our bad Cowboys pick when one of our only reliable takes is tease killer teams come through every week. However, the ugliest part was our continued belief in mediocre teams like the Vikings and Ravens in either-or games. We are going to spend more time trying to identify clear talent gaps or mismatches as opposed to betting on gut feel. I actually won money for the first time in a while on OLL last week, let’s make it two weeks in a row.
Week 4 Picks
The Collaboration:
The Pittsburgh Steelers-3 @ the Houston Texans
Sam: Coming into the season, we both liked the Texans more than most did. Nothing demonstrated our faith in them more than a division win against the Jaguars – a bet that we somehow overlooked last week. Nevertheless, we’re going against them this week. Whether it was the beatdown from the defensive line of the Colts or the Ravens, the Texans are going to struggle when they’re going up against a dominant defensive front. Look no further than the Steelers DLine to find that mismatch. We’ll take the Steelers on a small line in Houston.
Yank: It’s top-flight D-line against struggling O-line week here on One Last Line, as Sam identified above. The Steelers have a clear formula to keep games close and ultimately take advantage of opponents’ mistakes. Houston doesn’t yet match up talent-wise particularly in the trenches. Mike Tomlin and Teryl Austin know a thing or two about rookie QBs and should make this one a long day for CJ Stroud.
Sam’s Pick: $7.00 on the Steelers-3 (-110)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Steelers-2.5 (-117)
The Los Angeles Rams @ the Indianapolis Colts EVEN
Yank: Game #2, mismatch #2: the Colts don’t have much but they do have a dominant D-line led by DeForest Buckner. The Rams lost their LT to injury last week. Living in Indy I have Colts football on in the background a lot. The offense struggles to move the ball but the D-line is fearsome and has keyed their victories so far. Should be hard for the Rams to match up in this one.
Sam: Have you figured out the theme yet? There are only a handful of things we find more important when picking lines than a potent defensive line against a banged-up offensive line. The Colts have shown that while they’re erratic on offense, the defense is no joke. They can get after a less-than-stellar OLine and cause problems for Matt Stafford. Throw in that the Colts are at home and we’ll take the Colts simply to win.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Colts ML (-104)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Colts ML (-105)
The Washington Commanders @ the Philadelphia Eagles-9
Sam: Trenches! Trenches! Trenches! Who has a more dominant DLine than the Eagles right now? Jalen Carter was such a steal for the Eagles, it’s truly a shame the NFL keeps letting them get away with this. Soon enough Goodell is going to have to step in and blow that team up. While the Commanders remain a mystery to us, some things remain true. The Eagles are very good. Sure a division game is never a lock as a favorite, but we got in trouble betting against good teams last year and we’re trying to right the ship here.
Yank: Simple one here – the Manders stink. The Eagles may be the second-best team in football. Lay the points. Moving on.
Sam’s Pick: $5.50 on the Eagles-7.5 (-132)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Eagles-8 (-110)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ the New Orleans Saints-3.5
Yank: This line stinks to high heaven. Why was this published before Carr’s status for the game was known? How is New Orleans supposed to hang around with their backup QB? Oh, yeah – this Saints coaching staff OWNS this Bucs coaching staff ever since the Brady days. Also, this game is in the Super Dome. Also also, the Bucs stink, their record is a mirage, their offense couldn’t move the ball if it was taped to an RC car. To top it off this Saints D-line looks strong and the Bucs O-line has been awful this far. As Sam said before – trenches!
Sam: Oof I hate this pick. The Saints with Jameis are the wild card of all wild cards. We’ll be praying that we get the 3 TDs version of Jameis and not the 3 picks version. I wasn’t super thrilled to make this pick, but Yank reminded me that this staff is the same staff that gave Tom Brady problems the last few years and now they have Baker at the helm. We’re banking on people thinking that the Bucs are still better than they are – keep in mind they haven’t won a game against a team with a single win in this young season yet.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Saints-3.5 (-115)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Saints-3 (-118)
The Arizona Cardinals @ the San Francisco 49ers-14.5
Sam: Did I lose this against the Cardinals last week? Yes. Have I lost to them the last two weeks after telling everyone that they’re probably not going to be as bad as everyone expected? Yes. Some things never change. I have a good idea, go completely against it, and lose money. This is likely going to be the same story this weekend. 14.5 points is a lot of points to give up to another professional football team. That being said, the 49ers have the tools to score in bunches. When the 49ers were favored last season, they won 9 games by more than 1 TD over the spread. The Cardinals were two of those games. Some things never change.
Yank: Get used to seeing this paragraph often. I’m going to bet the 49ers against the spread every week they play a bad team. Their defense is fearsome and their offense is scoring 30 on anyone. Lay the points.
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Niners-14 (-105)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Niners-13.5 (-120)
The Kansas City Chiefs-8.5 @ the New York Jets
Yank: The Chiefs are starting Patrick Mahomes. The Jets are starting Zach Wilson. Teaser City here we come.
Sam: We had the Chiefs last week against a bad team and it really came through. This week they’re going up against a team that has a hard time gaining one yard, let alone one score. The Jets defense will give the Chiefs troubles, but we trust Mahomes to get the job done enough to cover the spread.
Sam’s Pick: $5.50 on the Chiefs-8.5 (-110)
Yanks Pick: $6.00 on a teaser Chiefs-2.5/Cowboys moneyline (-130)
Tease Killer of the Week:
No identified TKOW this week.
The Confrontation:
No identified Confrontation this week.
The Isolation:
The New England Patriots @ the Dallas Cowboys-6
Yank: I’m going to bet the Cowboys on the moneyline more or less every week. If they’re good they will win me money. If I put my stink on them and they lose, all the better for my emotional state.
Yank’s Pick: $6.00 on a teaser Chiefs-2.5/Cowboys ML (-130)
The Bank – Week 3
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $85.72 | $89.01 |
| Risk: | $31.00 | $32.00 |
| Record: | 6 – 8 – 1 | 12 – 14 – 1 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 5 – 5 – 1 | 10 – 9 – 1 |
| Record on the Tease Killer of the Week: | 1 – 1 | 1 – 2 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 