Intro by Sam
It may all be over for One Last Line soon. If LeBron is going to come out here picking games correctly, we’ll have no choice but to hang it up. Until that time comes, we’ll continue to deliver mediocre picks all the live long Sunday.
Recap
Last week was one to forget. The Steelers were thoroughly demolished by the Texans. The Colts blew it with the opportunity right in their face against the Rams. The Eagles couldn’t separate from Sam Howell and the Commanders. The Bucs own the Saints, despite our thinking the complete opposite. Woof, that was a doozy.
Thankfully for the 49ers, not all hope was lost. They managed to take care of business against the Cardinals in a never-a-doubt fashion, while Yank successfully navigated a tasty Chiefs/Cowboys teaser that featured the Chiefs right below their 3-point victory at Chiefs-2.5 and the never-a-doubt Cowboys ML over the Patriots. Thankfully another 6 days have passed and Sunday football is upon us, on to the picks.
Week 5 Picks
The Collaboration:
The Houston Texans @ the Atlanta Falcons-2.5
Yank: This game presents an opportunity to see if we have really learned anything, or if we have the black spot no matter who we bet on. Prior to the season, I liked the Texans with new head coach DeMeco Ryans and top draft pick QB CJ Stroud as a big improvement candidate. If you’ve read this blog at all you also know I hate Atlanta Coach Arthur Smith and QB Desmond Riddder, they of the putrid offense. Coming off a big Texans win and a big Falcons loss (not to mention Atlanta went to London and back) the Falcons are still favored. The line concerns me but not as much as Ridder’s play.
Sam: We are working on patience this season. And we need it. The Texans were always an easy improvement pick for us this season, and Atlanta was a team we considered over-hyped. It will be a natural tester for us. The main issue with this game is that we don’t like being on a team that has a big win and playing a team after a dismal performance. Nevertheless, we’re sticking with our guns and taking the Texans here.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 in the Texans ML+114
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Texans ML+120
The Dallas Cowboys @ the San Francisco 49ers-3.5
Sam: The 49ers are one of the best teams from top to bottom. They don’t have any exploitable weaknesses. When they need to, the defense will stifle any life from the opponents offense, and Shanahan has not only the weapons but the playbook to solve any riddle. While the Cowboys are one of the best teams in the NFC, they’ve shown that they aren’t infallible. This feels like a trap/revenge game for the Cowboys in San Francisco, but I have to take the 49ers until I see them lose.
Yank: There’s not much analysis required for me on this one; I may bet the 49ers ATS every week that their top players are healthy. They have the best offensive skill talent and the best pass rushers in the league. In this particular case I also really dislike Mike McCarthy calling plays and the Dallas run defense (which couldn’t stop Arizona), so I’m doubling up Niners bets.
Sam’s Pick: $7.70 on the 49ers-3.5 (-110)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the 49ers-3.5 (-110) and $5.00 on a ML parlay Niners+Eagles(+133)
The Philadelphia Eagles @ the Los Angeles Rams+4
Yank: Long-time readers of this blog will know I am a Sean McVay stan and I generally overvalue the Rams. Even I can’t find a reason to like them in this spot. Against most teams, the fact that the Rams roll out late-round draft picks and UDFAs at many positions can be papered over but the Eagles roster is full of blue chippers who are going to rip that paper to shreds. Additionally, this game in LA should have about 70% Eagles fans in the stands. The Birds fly on in this one.
Sam: You know there’s nothing more I hate than betting on the Eagles to win. Yuck. The only thing that allowed me to submit this wager was that my like of money outweighed my disdain for the Eagles. The Eagles are such a hard team to stop on offense with their ability to power-run it down the field all day long and a defensive line that will stop any runner short of the line of scrimmage and cause nightmares for Stafford. We’ve seen the Rams struggle when they’re going up against a dominant defense. I expect the same here.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on an ML Parlay Niners+Eagles (+129)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on an ML Parlay Niners+Eagles (+133)
The New York Jets @ the Denver Broncos
Yank: We’ve spent the year this far looking for mismatches. This Broncos team is clearly awful, giving up 70 to the Dolphins and needing a miracle to beat the Bears. They may be lucky to win 4 games. Meanwhile, this Jets team with Zach Wilson at QB is just perfectly adequate? They largely held their own against the Chiefs last week and beat the Bills in week one. They’re probably like a 7-8 win outfit. Their defense should be easily the best unit in this game. They should be favored in my view so I’m going to go wild and adjust the line.
Sam: I’m not quite as daring as Yank, but I will settle for a Jets ML bet. Yank laid it out pretty clearly. Everyone felt like the Jets immediately became a dump truck as soon as Rodgers went out, but they’ve had a murderous row of opponents to start the season – thanks to the Rodgers hype train – but they’re basically the same team they were last season and that team was just fine. They rely on their defense and do just enough to win on offense. This is a recipe that will work well against one of my failed takes in thinking Sean Payton would clear the stench that is the Denver Broncos. Take the Jets against their easiest opponent this season and prosper.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Jets ML (+118)
Yank’s Pick: $4.15 on the Jets adjusted -2.5 (+144)
Tease Killer of the Week:
No identified TKOW this week.
The Confrontation:
The Cincinnati Bengals @ the Arizona Cardinals+3
Sam: The Cardinals are a perfect representation of what has happened to me betting this season. We were all over them in Week 1 going against the Commanders, because everyone was down on them. It worked out great for us. Despite having the right take that they were undervalued, I have gone against them multiple times now. How is it possible to be this dumb? Well, look no further than me now betting them against the Bengals now that the magic has more than likely worn off. As a principle, I’m trying to return to our original strategies. The Cardinals are still undervalued and I’m trying to take more underdogs. I’m hoping that there is still enough gas in Conner’s tank to control the ball and make the Bengals regret starting this season altogether.
Yank: I get that we have a few weeks of data on the Cardinals now but I am just not willing to believe what I have seen just yet. Prior to this year, I would have expected the Bengals to be favored by more than a TD in this game. Now the Bengals backs are against the wall and this is as close to a must-win as you will see in Week 5. Even if Burrow is severely limited this Cardinals team still gave up 31 points in a half to the awful Giants offense. I kinda hate this pick and I suck at picking so that’s the best reason of all to take Cincy.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Cardinals+3 (-105)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Bengals-3 (-115)
The Isolation:
The New York Giants @ the Miami Dolphins-12.5
Yank: The less said about this game the better. The Giants look like the Joe Hudge era has returned and I don’t expect their listless offense to do much in this game. Miami should roll to an easy victory here, something like 35-10
Yank’s pick: $5.00 on Under 47.5 (-110)
The Baltimore Ravens-4.5 @ the Pittsburgh Steelers
Sam: The last couple of weeks have made me feel like I’m taking too many favorites. We’ve identified some key spots when it makes sense to take them, but underdogs are still covering more than 50% of the time. In matchups against teams that are more alike than different, I’m trying to take more underdogs. While overall I believe in the Ravens, they’re already battling injuries and they’re favored against fierce division rival in their home stadium. Pickett’s injury is alarming, but I’m not banking on the Steelers offense doing all that much in the first place. This pick comes down to TJ Watt living inside Lamar’s jersey.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Steelers+4.5
The Tennessee Titans-2.5 @ the Indianapolis Colts
Sam: Rinse and repeat. The Colts are home underdogs against a division rival. Anthony Richardson has been fun to watch so far and the Titans anything but. Needless to say, I’m not expecting much in the way of offense in this game. With a weird line like 2.5, this spread will ultimately come down to some weird safety or missed extra point at the end of the game. Give me the points and I’ll let the casinos do the rest.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Colts+2.5
The Bank – Week 5
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $ | $ |
| Risk: | $ | $37.7 |
| Record: | 6 – 8 – 1 | 12 – 14 – 1 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 5 – 5 – 1 | 10 – 9 – 1 |
| Record on the Tease Killer of the Week: | 1 – 1 | 1 – 2 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 