Intro by Yank
What a week for your favorite blog boys. Did you all finally start to listen and fade us? Is that what it took to turn our karma around? Whatever it was that happened we will take it. We’ve started taking more of a “grip it and rip it” philosophy with our picks and it seems to be paying off. We’re trying to bomb another one out there down the middle this week.
Recap
Our big week began backing favorites in The Collaboration, where the Eagles and Niners continue to come through. We also liked the Jets in the Hackett Bowl, where Denver proved they should never be favored against anyone. Finally, we proved we’re still snake-bit betting against Atlanta, who won but didn’t cover in a game where I took the ML for a second time. Last but not least, the Bengals covered, the Giants/Dolphins game went under for me, and the Colts and Steelers won for Sam to solidify Week 5 as our best week ever here at One Last Line.
Week 6 Picks
The Collaboration:
The San Francisco 49ers-9.5 @ the Cleveland Browns
Yank: All the Niners best guys are healthy. Bet the Niners against the spread. Wash, rinse, repeat.
Sam: A couple of things to be wary about in this game. The Browns defense is legit. The 49ers are flying three-quarters of the way across the states to play this team. And the Browns game plan will be a little less clear with a new QB behind center this week. Nevertheless, the Niners are a juggernaut. There’s no way PJ Walker has a good game against this defense and even if the Browns defense contains the 49ers offense a little bit, I have a hard time seeing the Browns scoring points in this one at all.
Sam’s Pick: $5.50 on the 49ers-9.5 (-110)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the 49ers-9.5 (-110) and $8.00 on a parlay 49ers-2/Eagles-1.5(-134)
The Philadelphia Eagles-6.5 @ the New York Jets
Sam: Road favorites are a tough hill to die on, but when you’re backing the 49ers and the Eagles it becomes a little easier to see. The Eagles are maybe not quite as good as last year, but that defense is still getting in the backfield and causing havoc. Zac Wilson has had some moments, but he’s not playing the Broncos defense this week. He’s going to be seeing ghosts by the end of this one and the Eagles offense will do enough to contain the tenacious Jets defensive front.
Yank: It was nice for the Jets to get a win last week, especially since they won me money. That said that’s about the limit of nice things there are to say about them. The offense is inept with Zach Wilson at the controls. The defense is solid but unspectacular. I’m a little worried about the Eagles injury situation on defense so I adjusted this line for a parlay but I can’t really envision a world where Robert Saleh wins a matchup with Nick Sirriani.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Eagles-6.5 (-110)
Yanks Pick: $8.00 on a parlay Niners-2/Eagles-1.5(-134)
The Detroit Lions-3 @ the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Yank: The formula that seems to have paid some dividends for us this year is identifying clear mismatches that aren’t reflected in the spread. I maintain my belief that this Tampa team stinks. The Eagles validated that belief on the Monday Night Football a few weeks ago. I’m not sure this Lions team is in the Eagles tier quite yet, but they are decidedly above average particularly offensively. The Bucs are one of those teams that has feasted on other teams mistakes keeping them in games. If they get down 10-14 points early they struggle to keep pace. Looking for the Lions to come out hot in Florida.
Sam: We’re taking the Lions as our 3rd favorite of the week. You read that right – not 1, not 2, but 3(!) road favorites. Yank lays this one out pretty clearly. The Bucs haven’t beaten anyone of note but are still riding a high that they started the season off better than most thought. The Lions meanwhile have their offense moving. When betting 3 favorites inevitably fails, you’re going to hear me roar!
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Lions-3 (-105)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Lions-3 (-110)
Tease Killer of the Week:
No identified TKOW this week.
The Confrontation:
The Arizona Cardinals @ the Los Angeles Rams-7
Sam: The Rams are a competent football team. They have some playmakers on offense and they have Aaron Donald on defense. While I don’t love the division element of this game, the Cardinals might be hitting the stage of they are who we thought they were. Without James Connor and a few weeks of tape, teams are starting to catch up to them. I want to capitalize on this realization before the lines start to really grow.
Yank: This is a classic “seems too easy” matchup. The Cards finally came back down to earth and the Rams have looked solid all year. Load up the Rams into your moneyline parlays and take the easy wins…right? To quote the great Lee Corso; Not so fast my friends. Division games like this are always weird and the Cards have a strong track record against the Rams. Both of these teams have limited roster depth. Seven points feels like too many here to me.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Rams-7 (-105)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Cardinals+7 (-110)
The Isolation:
The Indianapolis Colts @ the Jacksonville Jaguars-4.5
Sam: Consider me not a believer in the Jaguars. I’m not sure where the Jacksonville hype comes from. This is a division game and even though the Colts are on the road and don’t have their starting QB, I like the Colts to be competitive in this one. The Jaguars are coming off two weeks in London, so I’m anticipating a bit of an overseas hangover. Jet lag is real folks.
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the colts+4 (-110) and $2.00 on the Colts ML (+170)
The Seattle Seahawks @ the Cinncinati Bengals-3
Sam: This is a bet on the Joe Brr finding the ice in his veins again. If this game were at the beginning of the season there is no way that the Bengals would only be favored by 3 in Cincy. Yes, the Seahawks are coming off of a bye, so that helps, but if this Bengals team’s start is similar to last season, the Bengals are about to catch fire. I’m trying to catch a ticket early before the lines move on this Bengals team
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Bengals-3 (-105)
The New Orleans Saints-2 @ the Houston Texans
Sam: I know I’m going to regret this one, but I’ve been trying to find more underdogs to bet on the last two weeks and I’ve bet a lottttt of favorites so far in this post. I’m going to take the Texans again this week for the following reasons. I think these are two similar teams. The Saints might have a slight edge, but they’re coming off of a huge win and this is the perfect letdown spot. The Texans are at home and continue to show that they are more or less competent. Give me the points and a taste on the ML.
Sam’s Pick: $3.00 on the Texans+1.5 (-110) and $2.00 on the Texans ML (+105)
The Dallas Cowboys-1.5 @ the Los Angeles Chargers
Sam: The Dallas Cowboys are essentially playing a home game in LA this week and they’re coming off of a disappointing loss to the best team in football. I’m banking on a bounceback performance against a team I consider desperately meh. The Cowboys might be the good/bad team of this season, but this is the type of opponent that the good/bad team puts down to make themselves look good.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Cowboys-1.5 (-110)
The New York Giants @ the Buffalo Bills-15
Sam: The question here is, will the Giants score a point with Tyrod Taylor playing quarterback? Yes, he’s proven himself competent at times, but he’s playing behind a line that consists of guys like you and me – okay not really – but you get the point. Throw in the fact that the Bills are angry/hot after losing a silly game in London and I’m guessing they’ll be ready to burn the house down.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Bills-15 (-110)
The Bank – Week 6
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $97.15 | $83.51 |
| Risk: | $23.00 | $46.50 |
| Record: | 13 – 13 – 1 | 18 – 21 – 1 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 8 – 8 – 1 | 14 – 14 – 1 |
| Record on the Tease Killer of the Week: | 1 – 1 | 1 – 2 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 