Intro by Sam
Week 7 is here – the NFL season is fully in the swing of things but Yank and I are still trying to find our way. After a successful Week 5, Week 6 didn’t prove as fruitful as we hoped. Here’s a look at what happened.
Recap
With our new strategy of betting on the best teams each week in tow, we encountered that miserable week that happens every year where the big favorites all lose on the same day. In this case, the 49ers were the biggest disappointment. It was a stinker of a game like we thought, but the 49ers defense couldn’t keep the Browns to 0 points and the offensive playmakers started dropping like flies.
The other favorite to go down was the Eagles. They also managed a meager 14 points against the Jets tough defense. Chalk up these results to that one bad week where the contenders all slip up. Thankfully the Lions saved us from a clean sweep in the Collaboration. The Lions were the perfect matchup of a good vs a mid-to-bad team in the Bucs. Whenever you can get those matchups at 3 or less, you take it.
I got the better of Yank in the Confrontation when the Rams took care of business against the Cardinals. Even though it was a division game, the Cardinals are what we thought they would be – a team destined to pick #1 overall.
Finally, I was able to keep my momentum afloat in the Isolation. I picked 3 out of 5 outcomes correctly, which was just enough to nudge me into the black. Thanks to the Cowboys, Texans, and Bengals for coming through. Meanwhile, the Bills and the Colts let me down.
Week 7 Picks
The Collaboration:
The Detroit Lions @ the Baltimore Ravens-3
Yank: Back to the well again with the Lions, and why not? Detroit has been consistently solid on both sides of the ball all year, I am willing to consider them a straight-up good team at this point. Baltimore on the other hand has shown even with all their talent they belong in the meaty middle of meh in this year’s NFL (as most teams do quite frankly). If we can get a good team against an average one and get points while we are doing it, we will take that every time even on the road.
Sam: Yank sums this one up nicely. I’m still holding out hope that the Ravens have something special in them, but it’s been a rough start to hold onto those ideals. With them looking more and more like a meh/mid team, we’ve gotta take the Lions.
Sam’s Pick: $5.50 on the Lions+3 (-110) and $4.00 on the Lions ML (+132)
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Lions+3 (-110)
The Cleveland Browns-3.5 @ the Indianapolis Colts
Sam: The Colts might stink. I’ve had a mixed history of betting on them this season, but I do think the time to bet on them is when they are home underdogs. What helps is this is a case of stock up and stock down. The Browns are coming off their regular season Super Bowl beating the 49ers, while the Colts just got demolished in Jacksonville. While there may never be a good time to bet on the Colts, this is about as close as it gets.
Yank: The two best units in this game are each defense. Meanwhile piloting the controls for the offenses will be Gardner Minshew and either Watson or Walker for the Browns, I am here to report all of those dudes stink. Both D-lines should run rampant. This strikes me as likely a 17-13 game one way or the other. There is probably an outside chance the Browns totally shut down Minshew and win 24-0. The under seems like the move here as it keeps all those options in play.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Colts+3.5 (-115)
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Under 41 (-110)
The Buffalo Bills @ the New England Patriots
Yank: The Bills looked bad against the Giants last weekend, full stop. It seems more likely than not to me that was a one-week blip. The Bills have shown they are liable to score 30+ most weeks, particularly against a defense missing their two best players like the Pats. On the offensive side of the ball, the Pats should struggle to get to 10 points like they have for weeks now. This one could get ugly.
Sam: My main worry with this one is about the blowback to the story that the Patriots are actively tanking. If anyone would pull something out of their ass and win a game they shouldn’t just to spite the narrative, it’s Bill Belichick. That being said, the Patriots suck. They are bottom-of-the-barrel bad. Put this game in the watch-out for a Bills blowout category for me. Even though it’s a division game, the Bills have shown over the last few seasons they’re not afraid to put up a lot of points against bad teams.
Sam’s Pick: $5.50 on the Bills-7.5 (-110)
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Bills-8 (-110)
The Green Bay Packers-1 @ the Denver Broncos
Sam: This is almost strictly a fade the Broncos bet. They are in complete tire-fire mode and why not go against them with a team we liked at the beginning of the season? The Packers are fresh off of a bye week and had an extra long time to reflect on their horrible performance in Week 5. This is what we call a mid vs. a bad matchup and we’re trying to take as many of those as we can.
Yank: The main thing we do at this point is look for mismatches. This Packers team is by no means great but they are also totally fine. They are a capable NFL outfit. The Broncos stink, they may be the worst team in the league. They also seem to already be actively seeking the #1 pick. And for some reason, they are only 1 point dogs? The worry is it seems too easy, but if we bet against the Broncos 5 times we should win 4 at minimum.
Sam’s Pick: $7.00 on the Packers ML (-112)
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Packers-1 (110)
The Miami Dolphins @ the Philadelphia Eagles-3
Yank: We’ve reached the portion of the program where if you’ve been paying attention you should remember my logic by now. The Eagles have one of the most talented rosters in the league they are likely the second-best team in the league straight up. Betting them to win by 2.5 or less most weeks should be an extremely profitable enterprise for the season. Let’s keep that train rolling.
Sam: I’m certainly a little more intimidated betting on the Eagles when they’re going up against the high-flying offense of the Dolphins. The Dolphins have looked like world-beaters at times, but if you look a little closer at the wins, the shine starts to wear off a little bit. They haven’t beaten anyone of real value yet, and while this matchup presents itself as a prime opportunity to prove themselves, we’re going to land on the Eagles in a bounce-back spot. This isn’t so much of a bet against the Dolphins as it is a bet on the Eagles system bearing fruit.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Eagles-3 (-110)
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Eagles-2.5 (-110)
The San Francisco 49ers-6.5 @ the Minnesota Vikings
Sam: Here comes trouble for me. I have to emotionally hedge this game. In reality, I think this game will be 42-0 for the 49ers, but my heart is telling me the Vikings have a chance. The Vikings have had chances all season, but it’s proven to bounce the wrong way over and over again each week. Why should we expect it to be any different going up against the best team in football? Sure they’re missing a handful of key players, but the VIkings are missing their whole offensive identity. Nothing about scoring 13 offensive points against the Bears makes me confident they know what to do without #18 out there.
Yank: My 49ers thoughts almost had to change this week with the injury situation, but given that McCaffrey is supposed to play I think they remain healthy enough to get the blind bet treatment. You’ll recall my plan to bet the 49ers against the spread every week given that they are the best team in the league. Wash, rinse, repeat.
Sam’s Pick: $6.00 on the 49ers-6.5 (-110)
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the 49ers-6.5(-114)
Tease Killer of the Week:
No identified TKOW this week.
The Confrontation:
No identified Confrontation this week.
The Isolation:
The Washington Commanders-3 @ the New York Giants
Sam: Did I really just bet the Giants again? Unfortunately for my wallet, yes. When I’m trying to take my emotions out of it, I see this as a mid vs. mid-to-bad matchup. The Giants may indeed be terrible – evidenced by their not having scored a touchdown in a month – but I think they still have a chance to be meh with a healthy Jones and a healthy Saquon. The last time we saw them both was when they scored 31 points against the Cardinals in Week 2. I’ll take them as home underdogs against a division rival and hope they’re more mid than they are bad.
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Giants ML (+135)
The Bank – Week 7
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $83.70 | $85.67 |
| Risk: | $30.00 | $42.00 |
| Record: | 14 – 16 – 1 | 24 – 26 – 1 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 9 – 10 – 1 | 19 – 18 – 1 |
| Record on the Tease Killer of the Week: | 1 – 1 | 1 – 2 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 