Intro by Yank
Spooky season is here folks, and our picking ability remains terrifying to behold! Tricks and treats in equal measure below, although as you know by now trusting us is most likely a path to a bag full of candy corn.
Recap
You’re getting used to reading this, but last week was not great. We had the Lions, Packers, 49ers and Bills who all lost in embarrassing fashion. I also had the under in a the Browns/Colts game where almost 80 points were scored. The Eagles provides our only joint victory. Thankfully Sam correctly picked the Colts and Giants as well. At this point I’ve basically had to resort to copying his picks. Will that be bad for him or good for me? Read on to find out!
Week 8 Picks
The Collaboration:
The Jacksonville Jaguars-2 @ the Pittsburgh Steelers
Sam: This game and the game below are about identifying similarly tiered teams and taking the value of a home underdog. In this case, the Steelers are in the same tier as the Jaguars and Tomlin is notoriously great as a home underdog. Thankfully, both teams are coming off of wins, so we don’t have to worry too much about a stock-up/stock-down situation. Look for Trevor Lawrence to struggle against this defense and the Steelers offense to do just enough to get the job done.
Yank: For whatever it’s worth the reason I like this pick is because this game is supposed to take force in driving rain. I just can’t imagine the Jags out executing a Mike Tomlin Steelers team in non-ideal conditions. The Steelers may not do a lot well, but they are still a hard nosed football team.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Steelers ML (+115)
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Steelers ML (+116)
The Atlanta Falcons-2.5 @ the Tennessee Titans
Yank: I’m out on Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder as mentioned many times before. Their 2-5 record against the spread speaks for itself. The Tennessee front office may be trying to pack it in trading away veterans, but I don’t think Mike Vrabel will go quietly into the night.
Sam: Once again, this is two similarly matched teams where one is a home underdog. While the Titans are at a decision point, Vrabel – like Tomlin – doesn’t go down easy at home. This game is going to be one of those no-fun 10-17 games. I think the Titans do enough to come out on top.
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Titans+2.5 (-105) and $2.00 on the Titans ML (+120)
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Titans+3 (-118)
The Houston Texans-3.5 @ the Carolina Panthers
Sam: We’ve made no bones about it on this blog so far. We are fans of the CJ Stroud and the DeMeco Ryans Houston Texans. Unlike the matchups above, this game is not evenly matched. The Texans have demonstrated repeatedly throughout the season that they are a competent football team, while the Panthers have demonstrated that they are anything but. The Texans roll for another victory and continue their intriguing peak at the AFC South title.
Yank: Sam hits the key point above we’ve been in on this Texans team from the beginning. On the flip side there has not been much to like about Carolina they’ve been pretty uniformly bad particularly on defense. No reason to overthink this one.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Texans-3.5 (+100)
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Texans-3.5 (-102)
The New York Jets-3 @ the New York Giants
Sam: Technically the Giants are a home underdog, though it is a bit of a weird situation with the shared stadium, nevertheless, I won some money on the Giants last week and want to carry that forward this week. I think that they’ve shown that they aren’t the dumpster fire everyone thought they were to start the season, and this is a perfect game to get a good win to carry their momentum forward.
Yank: This is a dumb thing for me to do given the emotional investment I have in this game already without betting on it. That said, the Jets are way too big for their britches at this point. People are looking around thinking they may have a chance to win the AFC East. Newsflash: their coaches stink, and their players at many positions also stink. Unfortunately the risk here is that the Giants also stink, but they have looked surprisingly competent the last weeks. The thing I am most sure about in this game is that Wink Martindale is going to put Zach Wilson in absolute hell. This game probably ends 10-9 or something stupid like that one way or the other. Give me the Gmen.
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Giants ML (+152)
Yank’s Pick: $4.00 on the Giants ML (+136)
The New England Patriots @ the Miami Dolphins-8
Yank: Admittedly I’m worried about this one. The Patriots just looked fully competent in a road game against another supposedly strong division team in the Bills. Also Tyreek Hill is hurt and this line continues to move towards the Pats which is never a good sign. That said I feel the need to stick my guns on the Pats; they stink! They do not have much talent on either side of the ball and their offense in particular has been abhorrent. The Dolphins should be able to score 24 minimum in this game, I just don’t believe the Pats get past 14.
Sam: This game has all the makings of a Miami blowout win. First, they lost a big game last week to the Eagles. Everyone is back on the doubting train. Second, the Patriots are coming off of a big home win against the Bills. Stock-up/stock-down. Finally, these two teams have already played each other and I think that the Dolphins will be gunning for the sweep. They’re motivated and have shown they take care of business against bad teams. Last week’s win against the Bills doesn’t change the fact that the Patriots are bad.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Dolphins-8 (-110)
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Dolphins-9.5 (-110)
The Cleveland Browns @ the Seattle Seahawks-4
Yank: This line makes absolutely no sense to me. A four point line is typically reserved for a team in an obvious mismatch expected to dominate. Don’t the Browns have the most dominant defense in the league by far? Hasn’t Seattle kind of stunk in both sides of the ball recently? Sometimes the best thing you can do when picking is trust the oddsmakers. Give me Seattle; I have no idea why.
Sam: Yank explains the logic pretty clearly on this one. Something is fishy about this line. The Seahawks are a pretty mid-team. They’ve won some good ones and lost some bad ones. I’m all in on riding the Seahawks roller coaster. Let’s just hope we’re catching them when they’re going up.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Seahawks-3.5 (-115)
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Seahawks-3.5 (-110)
The Cincinnati Bengals @ the San Fransisco 49ers-5
Yank: Maybe I’m powerful enough to jinx them, but from my perspective it still seems like the most likely scenario is this Niners team wins 12-13 games at a minimum. They’ve had some offensive injuries but the defense remains largely in tact. I was willing to back them even with Darnold at the controls so I grabbed the line earlier this week when it seemed like he may play. It’s looking like Purdy will play today which makes me like them even more. Cincy will put up a fight, but this Niners team still operates on a higher plane than pretty much every other team in my opinion.
Sam: This was one of the hardest picks this week. The 49ers have really let us down the last two weeks after we crowned them king of the good teams, but I’m not ready to abandon them just yet. The Browns game was in abysmal weather, it was the Browns super bowl, and they still almost won. Last week they ran into a good Vikings team that played its best collective game in years, and they still almost won! Don’t lose faith in this 49ers team. They may be dealing with too many injuries right now to overcome this Bengals team, but I like them to get back on track now that they’re back home.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the 49ers-5 (-110)
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the 49ers-4 (-110)
The Chicago Bears @ the Los Angeles Chargers-8.5
Sam: How are the Chargers more than a touchdown favorite against anyone? Besides the fact that every time they play it’s a weird one-score game, have the people that set the lines actually watched this team play? They’re not good. They essentially have the same record as the Bears! The team they’re playing! And somehow they still get more respect. Whatever the case, it feels like a no-brainer to take 8.5 points against a 2-5 football team.
Yank: Everything Sam said! The Chargers stink! Eight and a half points is way too many. Especially when you consider they don’t have any fans so this stadium should present as essentially a Bears home game. Also if we bet the Bears we get to root for rookie D2 sensation Tyson Bagent. There’s definitely a world where this ends poorly!
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Bears+9 (-110)
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Bears+8.5 (-110)
Tease Killer of the Week:
No identified TKOW this week.
The Confrontation:
No identified Confrontation this week.
The Isolation:
The Philadelphia Eagles-7 @ the Washington Commanders
Sam: I usually like to be on the side of the home underdog in division games, especially when they are a touchdown or more underdogs, but I can’t do it this week. The Commanders had their shot at one of the best teams in football in Week 4 when they took the Eagles to overtime. But trust me, the Eagles have learned from that game and are ready to take some revenge. We will be betting on the good teams as long as we can stand it.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Eagles-7 (-106)
The Kansas City Chiefs-7 @ the Denver Broncos
Sam: The Eagles, Chiefs, and 49ers games all fall into the same category for me. Good teams. In the case of the Chiefs and Eagles, they’re both going up against division rivals on the road. But what you’ll notice is that neither of these teams are close to being in the same tier. The Broncos are coming off their first win of the season, but are still in full blow-it-up mode, while the Chiefs are starting to catch their stride offensively. Like in the Eagles-Manders matchup, the Chiefs and Broncos have already played and it was relatively close then too. The Chiefs will be looking to destroy the Broncos and I don’t want to be standing in their way.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Chiefs-7 (-106)
The Bank – Week 8
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $63.25 | $72.97 |
| Risk: | $39.00 | $50.00 |
| Record: | 15 – 21 – 1 | 27 – 31 – 1 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 10 – 14 – 1 | 21 – 21 – 1 |
| Record on the Tease Killer of the Week: | 1 – 1 | 1 – 2 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 