Intro by Sam
Another tough week for the boys. After reflection, we both felt that we are actually moving closer to a working strategy. This week we’re hoping to refine things and get a winning week on the books.
Recap
The highlights are essentially summed up by me pushing my Eagles-7 bet over the Commanders. In fact, there were a few wins on the board, including the Seahawks, Titans, and the Dolphins. We liked taking the home teams and in the case of the Titans as dogs.
That didn’t work for us when Pickett went out early against the Jags. Similarly, the Giants ML bet almost certainly would’ve hit had Taylor stayed healthy or the Giants not failed a FG attempt in the cold rain when all they needed was 1 yard. While we feel like on any given Sunday, we could’ve had those games, the other picks didn’t feel like they had much of a chance. The 9ers never showed up, the Texans performance was disturbing, and the Bears sat in their own feces. To make matters worse for me, I had the Chiefs-7 but they no-showed against a division rival on the road. Who could’ve seen that coming…
Week 9 Picks
The Collaboration:
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ the Houston Texans-3
Yank: This is mostly a straight-up fade of the Bucs. Their record is good but they are really bad. Todd Bowles is not a good head football coach. The Texans are coming off a bad loss, we are betting they bounce back in a big way here.
Sam: We can’t quit the Texans. The strategy this week is that they’re at home. Betting a young team on the road is always tough, but they’re getting a bad team at home this week and they’re only favored by 3. Hook ‘em.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Texans-2.5 (-118)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Texans-2.5 (-118)
The Dallas Cowboys @ the Philadelphia Eagles-3
Sam: Division games are always tough, but in most cases, I’d like to be on the home team. In this case, we get one of the best teams in football as 3-point favorites. It’s also possible that they’re going up against the good-bad team in the Cowboys. They’ll crush easy opponents but struggle when they face good defenses. Throw in the fact that the Cowboys vaunted defense has struggled against good running teams. This one feels like the Eagles will take care of business.
Yank: On the one hand, it feels like this Eagles team has been part of like 75% of my bets that have actually won this year, so continuing to rely on them makes sense. On the other hand, taking a favorite in a division game has been a significant portion of our losses this year. I’m wary of this matchup for that reason, from the beginning of OLL we have said the outcomes of division games often don’t make sense. The logical outcome here is an Eagles victory over what seems to me to be an overrated Cowboys squad. Let’s hope logic prevails in this one.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Eagles-3 (-110)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Eagles-3 (-110)
The Indianapolis Colts-3 @ the Carolina Panthers
Sam: This is a mid vs bad matchup. The fear here is that the Colts are on the road, which can turn mid-teams into bad-teams. Nevertheless, we’re trying to identify mismatches in quality and take low lines even when it’s because they’re on the road.
Yank: In the second AFC South vs NFC South matchup of the day we are again riding with the AFC South. This is another straight fade, this time of the Panthers. They stink this year; they struggle to score points no matter the opponent. This Colts team with Minshew at the controls is…totally fine? Decidedly average? That should be enough today.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Colts-2 (-110)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Colts-2 (-110)
Tease Killer of the Week:
No identified TKOW this week.
The Confrontation:
No identified Confrontation this week.
The Isolation:
The Buffalo Bills @ the Cincinnati Bengals
Yank: Prior to the season everyone had this labeled as one of the games of the year between two of the top teams in the AFC. Both of these teams have been found wanting in some areas thus far. Everyone’s most recent memory is of Cincy going into San Francisco and boat racing the Niners. 75% of the tickets on this game are on the Bengals. This game feels like a pick ‘em to me I will take the plus value on the Bills, who desperately need a win.
Yanks Pick: $4.50 on the Bills ML (+115)
The New York Giants @ the Las Vegas Raiders-1.5
Sam: This has all the makings of the Raiders players coming out hot and heavy after getting rid of McDaniels. All stories coming out of Vegas seem to indicate that the players HATED him. They love Pierce – and how could you not? While I don’t think this changes anything about the Raiders this season, I’ll take a chance on the new coach bounce.
Sam’s Pick: $10.00 on the Raiders-1.5 (-110)
The Minnesota Vikings @ the Atlanta Falcons-4
Sam: I’m taking a rip on my Vikings this week. Everyone is expecting the Falcons defense to stop the Vikings running game and make them one-dimensional. Well, news flash, the Vikings are one-dimensional already. O’Connell knows how to draw up plays to get wide receivers wide open and I expect that to continue with the weapons the Vikings have. Yank and I have stated for years that unknown backup QBs can be a good bet in their first start because they catch teams by surprise. Expect Jaren Hall to surprise and Taylor Henickie to run for his life against this Brian Flores defense.
Sam’s Pick: 5.00 on the Vikings ML (+158)
The Bank – Week 9
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $56.50 | $59.08 |
| Risk: | $19.50 | $35.00 |
| Record: | 18 – 24 – 1 | 31 – 37 – 2 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 13 – 16 – 1 | 24 – 25 – 2 |
| Record on the Tease Killer of the Week: | 1 – 1 | 1 – 2 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 