Intro by Yank
November is the perfect time of year for so many things: crackling fires, warm apple cider, big cozy sweaters, and…football in Frankfurt Germany? The NFL continues to perplex us with scheduling choices and game outcomes, but we press on and adapt.
Recap
We had one of our best Collaborations of the year last week nailing the Eagles and the Colts. We also felt good about our Texans pick which of course didn’t cover…by one point…because their kicker got injured. Sam was also all over the Raiders and Vikings for a nice little week in the black. I took a shot on the Bills and was rewarded with another loss. When will I learn that I should just be listening to Sam? Maybe next week.
Week 10 Picks
The Collaboration:
The Green Bay Packers @ the Pittsburgh Steelers-3.5
Yank: All year we have been trying to identify clear mismatches between teams. In this particular case these teams may have equally bad rosters, so what gives? The mismatch in any Steelers game is walking the sidelines and his name is Mike Tomlin. The Packers threw people off the scent last week but they only beat Brett Rypien. The Steelers defense should fully overwhelm Jordan Love in this one. Give me the Steelers.
Sam: This is a no-brainer for me. The Packers have demonstrated that they are not a very good football team. Their strength supposedly is their defense, but that won’t matter against a Steelers offense that struggles to do anything until they absolutely have to have it. No, the Steelers offense will have very little to do with it. The Steelers will win this game on the back of their defense like they do every week. Steelers at home by a field goal? I’ll take it.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Steelers (-125) and $5.00 on a Ravens/Steelers ML Parlay (+113)
Yanks Pick: $9.65 on a Steelers/Niners ML parlay (+155)
The San Francisco 49ers-3 @ the Jacksonville Jaguars
Sam: We’ve bet on the 49ers the last 3-4 weeks and whether it was our bad stench or a bad round of injury luck, it hasn’t worked out for us in a while. Despite my concerns that Yank and I are all powerful, we’re backing the 49ers again. We feel that with a healthy Trent Williams and Deebo Samuels, this should set things straight for the 49ers offense. Add in that they’re going up against a team that I’m not all too fond of, and this has the makings of a winning bet.
Yank: I know the 49ers have had two bad weeks in a row, but I still believe they are the class of the league and more likely than not to win 12 or 13 games. Add in the bye giving them a chance to get healthy as Sam mentions above and the talent disparity should be apparent in this one. Lastly, as we’ve mentioned in the past, road favorites coming off the bye cover at a significant clip (63% since 1999 according to Vegas Insider). Add it all up and this feels at minimum like a Niners victory.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the 49ers-3 (-120) and $3.00 on a 49ers/Lions ML Parlay (+158)
Yanks Pick: $9.65 on a Steelers/Niners ML Parlay (+155)
The Detroit Lions-3 @ the Los Angeles Chargers
Yank: The Lions have officially reached top-tier in the NFC status for me. The defense and run game travel, and they also have the benefit of playing a lot of bad teams. Additionally, they are another road favorite coming off the bye which is close to an autobet for me.
Sam: This game falls into our category of a good team going up against a meh team. The Lions have demonstrated that they can be really good on offense when they want to and the defense can make a splash play here or there. Meanwhile, the Chargers have escaped the wrath of public outcry due to wins against the Bears and Jets… Don’t be fooled by their recent success. This team is still not good. Hence taking the Lions on a neutral “home field” for the Chargers.
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Lions-3 (+105) and $3.00 on a 49ers/Lions ML Parlay (+158)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Lions-3 (+100)
The Atlanta Falcons-2.5 @ the Arizona Cardinals
Sam: I will not tell a lie – this is a complete flier on Kyler Murray looking like regular Kyler Murray. Even with a depleted roster, he’s capable of making plays against a bad football team. Atlanta might have some talent, but they can’t overcome Arthur Smith’s horrible coaching. Why not back a talented QB at home against a bad team?
Yank: Sam’s got it here, Atlanta sucks, Arthur Smith sucks and it’s hard to envision a scenario where they should be favorites. Arizona also stinks but there is a world where Kyler looks great and they win this game. I wanted to throw this game in a parlay where if Arizona does win we get a little bit bigger reward for it since they’re such a wild card team. Nevertheless, it’s a fun swing to take at a minimum.
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Cardinals ML (+122) and $3.00 on a Cardinals/Seahawks ML Parlay (+205)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on a Cardinals/Seahawks ML Parlay (+179)
The Washington Commanders @ the Seattle Seahawks-6
Yank: Add Washington to the list of freaks you will see a lot of bets against going forward. I don’t love Seattle either but Washington traveling to the West Coast to play in a loud stadium feels like their worst-case scenario. The Commanders just traded away their two best defensive players two weeks ago to begin the tank. Seattle should be able to at least eke out a win here. Big bird parlay!
Sam: Another strategy pick here. The Seahawks are a better team than the Commanders, they’re at home, and they’re coming off of a big loss. They will be motivated to take care of business, while the Commanders “saved” their season. Once again we’ll take the coaching and home-field advantage over a lackluster opponent.
Sam’s Pick: $3.00 on a Cardinals/Seahawks ML Parlay (+205)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on a Cardinals/Seahawks ML Parlay (+179)
Tease Killer of the Week:
No identified TKOW this week.
The Confrontation:
The Houston Texans @ the Cincinnati Bengals-6
Yank: I think the Bengals are a little big for their britches at the moment. Beating the Niners two weeks ago was a great win, but what if the Bills just stink? I think it’s possible the Texans may just straight up be better than Buffalo, who covered this number. Additionally, we have now officially reached tease killer season, where the big team of the week stumbles as often as they cover. Every bad gambler you know will have Cincy in this game and yet the line opened at 8 and today sits at 6. I don’t think the Texans will be a walkover.
Sam: As the introduction mentions, I am betting this one almost solely based on Yank’s confidence in the Texans. We were early adopters of the Texans and deserve praise from the masses – in my humble opinion – but I’m not ready to bet them against the Bengals. Yank lays out a good case for why the line might be a bit too high, but I think this might be one season too early for the Texans. The Texans won a crazy game last week, CJ Stroud was pumping his chest like he won the Super Bowl, and it was only against the Bucs… I think the Bucs-Texans Super Bowl hangover will be a bit too much for a young team going against a seasoned Bengals team. I don’t love this bet, but I do love that Yank loves the Texans.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Bengals-5.5 (-110)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Texans+7(-110)
The Isolation:
The New York Giants @ the Dallas Cowboys-17
Sam: 17 its a lotttt of points. But I’m pretty much ready to put the Giants in my isolation bet every week until they demonstrate that they’re more interested in winning than trying to secure Marvin Harrison Jr.’s services at the end of the year. This game was 40-0 in Meadowlands, what makes you think the Italian Scallion is going to do what Danny Dimes could not?
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Cowboys-17.5 (-105)
The Cleveland Browns @ the Baltimore Ravens-6.5
Sam: This is a tough one for me. I have really liked the Ravens all season. It feels like they’re finally putting it all together. That being said, I don’t expect them to beat every team by 20+ points. The Browns have a legit defense and I think they will make the Raven’s lives hard. It will be a good reality check for them, even though I think they still come out victorious. Hence, taking the Browns ATS but the Ravens in an ML parlay.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Browns+6.5 (-110) and $5.00 on a Ravens/Steelers ML Parlay (+113)
The New Orleans Saints-3 @ the Minnesota Vikings
Sam: Will a loss here hurt more now that I bet on them? Absolutely. Can you stop me from betting the Vikings based on good vibes only? Absolutely not. The Vikings have good vibes! This is very rare! The Saints should not be favored on the road against most teams, but the uncertainty surrounding Dobbs at QB is going to create some opportunity for me to capitalize. I think that his mobility creates advantages that the Vikings haven’t been able to utilize previously. Addison/Hockensen and to a lesser degree Osborn can create a vacuum in the middle of the field that Dobbs will always be able to turn and run to if he doesn’t trust what he sees. Give me the Vikings ML!
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Vikings ML (+128)
The Bank – Week 10
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $56.10 | $80.17 |
| Risk: | $24.65 | $49.00 |
| Record: | 18 – 24 – 1 | 35 – 38 – 2 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 15 – 17 – 1 | 27 – 26 – 2 |
| Record on the Tease Killer of the Week: | 1 – 1 | 1 – 2 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 