Intro by Sam
🎵So look at me now, I’m just makin’ my play, Don’t try to push your luck, just get out of my way – cause I’m back in Black 🎵You read that right, your boy here has climbed back from being down ~$30 to over our starting $100 mark. What a few weeks it has been.
Recap
It was a near-perfect week – in the Collaboration, we picked every matchup correctly and only missed on a push in the Lions game (and I missed a parlay thanks to the Ravens losing to the Browns). The Steelers, 49ers, Seahawks, and Lions (in our parlays) did their jobs.
The only major loss of the week came down to the Confrontation, where Yank used his streak of poor picking to throw me off the scent of a good one. The Texans must be REALLY good if they can handle Yank’s stink. And finally, I took care of business in the Isolation. The Cowboys covered easily, the Vikings won big, and the Browns covered the spread (even though they won outright, which wasn’t a part of the plan). All in all, the table is hot, so we will keep it rolling this week.
Week 11 Picks
The Collaboration:
The Dallas Cowboys-10.5 @ the Carolina Panthers
Yank: I don’t know much, but I do know the Cowboys have the best defensive line in football. Meanwhile, the Panthers have been bemoaning because of *checks notes*…poor offensive line play. If that’s not worth betting on I don’t know what is.
Sam: This pick is easy. The Cowboys have identified themselves as the good-bad team, but not only that. They KILL bad teams. With Parsons terrorizing bad OLines and young/bad QBs, it is a dangerous combination for bad teams. Even if Dallas’s offense falters, the defense is good enough to score 14 points on their own accord. With Bryce Young behind maybe the worst offensive line in football, this should go according to plan.
Sam’s Pick: $7.00 on the Cowboys-10.5 (-110), $4.00 on an ML Parlay Cowboys/Vikings (+164), and $4.00 on a Cowboys ML/Niners ML/Eagles ML Parlay (+191)
Yanks Pick: $10 on the Cowboys-10 (-115) and $5 on an ML parlay Cowboys/Vikings (+143)
The Chicago Bears @ the Detroit Lions-8
Sam: It has become clear to Yank and me that we need to consider putting the Lions in the tier of good teams that we bet on. In this case, the Lions are going up against the abysmal Chicago Bears and they’re only favored by a touchdown. While having Fields back definitely makes this more of a question mark, the Lions have the offense to score at will against the Bears lackluster defense. And for those keeping score, the Lions are 7-2 ATS. Every season, some teams are just undervalued throughout the course of the season. The Lions have a good case to be that team.
Yank: Sam says it well, at a minimum when it comes to covering the spread the Lions are top-class. We normally shy away from division games but the difference in team quality in this one is hard to pass up. Also, it’s important to remember the Bears want to lose at this point to keep their draft pick position high. Give me the team fighting for the one seed.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Lions-7.5 (-115)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Lions-7.5 (-110)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ the San Francisco 49ers-12
Yank: The Niners reminded everyone they are the class of the league on the road in Jacksonville. They haven’t consistently blown teams out at this point, but they are another team that just puts a higher level of talent out on the field each week than their opponents. The Bucs, meanwhile, are fools gold as Sam outlines below (hence the GM gigantic line). Still, something worries me a little about this one, so I’m going to throw the Niners into a parlay rather than lay the huge number.
Sam: The 49ers are healthy. They took apart a fine Jacksonville team last week. This week they’re at home against a bad Bucs team. Yes, they have 4 wins, but they’ve beaten the Titans, Bears, Saints, and Vikings (in week 1). The 49ers take care of business against bad teams. Consider them back. We are and we will likely bet them every week the rest of the way.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the 49ers-11.5 (-110) and $4.00 on a Cowboys ML/Niners ML/Eagles ML Parlay (+191)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on a parlay 49ers-2.5/Steelers+1.5 (+126)
The Minnesota Vikings @ the Denver Broncos-3
Sam: Vibes. Vibes. Vibes. This iteration of the Vikings team has been sooo fun to watch. The offense is humming now that they have a mobile QB who can pick up a 1st down when everything is covered downfield. And it’s not all Dobbs. Brian Flores is working magic with rookies and no-names all across the field. On the other side of the field the Broncos seem to have something brewing, but color me not that impressed. Besides taking down the Chiefs, they’ve beaten the Bills and Packers. Not exactly impressive wins these days. You can probably say the same thing about the Vikings, but that Saints game wasn’t as close as the final score and I think the Vikings will continue their impressive 5 game win streak.
Yank: A big win on national TV for the Broncos means there is the potential for a big letdown spot coming here this week. Here’s the secret folks, and we’ve been saying it on the blog and in our text threads for a bit now: the Bills look to be bad. Congrats to the Broncos for barely beating them on a fluke penalty, but I think the Vikings are just fine? That may be too much for the Broncos to handle. Plus as Sam mentions VIBES. Seems like the wrong team may be favored in this one.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Vikings ML (+120) and $4.00 on an ML Parlay Cowboys/Vikings (+164)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on an ML Parlay Cowboys/Vikings (+143)
The Philadelphia Eagles+2.5 @ the Kansas City Chiefs
Yank: I may bet the Eagles in some form every week this year until they start testing the starters. They continue to get less respect than you think an 8-1 team would deserve. Granted every team in the league should be underdogs in Kansas City, but any chance you can get to take the Eagles AND points is worth grabbing. I also like this game to go under the total with two really strong defenses.
Sam: Eagles as dogs? Against the team they lost to in the Super Bowl? Sure, why not? I don’t think the Eagles have been as good as they were last season, but at the same time, it doesn’t really seem like it matters. They have the pieces to dominate the trenches on both sides of the ball and it’s not like the Chiefs have really looked like the Super Bowl-winning team they were last year either.
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Eagles+2.5 (-105), $3.00 on the Eagles ML(+128), and $4.00 on a Cowboys ML/Niners ML/Eagles ML Parlay (+191)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Eagles+3 (-120) and $5.00 on game Under 45.5 (-110)
Tease Killer of the Week:
The Tennessee Titans @ the Jacksonville Jaguars-7
Sam: I really don’t like this bet. I think the Titans might be dead and the Jaguars are going to want revenge after a no-show against the 49ers. But that’s kind of the recipe when it comes to the Tease Killer of the Week, no? Of the games in the 6-8 point range, this one feels like it is least likely to happen. Hence, us nominating the Titans as the TKOW.
Yank: Division games are always weird! Put the Jags in an eliminator pool this week at your own peril. Vrabel continues to get more out of his guys than you’d expect, particularly in a bounce-back spot.
Sam’s Pick: $3.00 on the Titans+7 (-110) and $2.00 on the Titans ML (+260)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Titans+7(-110)
The Confrontation:
No identified Confrontation this week.
The Isolation:
The Las Vegas Raiders @ the Miami Dolphins-13.5
Sam: Color me skeptical about the Miami Dolphins. Yes, they could share a similar trait with the Cowboys as the good-bad team of the AFC, but is it possible this Raiders team isn’t bad? Now they haven’t exactly blown anyone away the last two weeks after the coaching change, but I’m counting on the cigar-smoking vibes to carry through. I feel like a team that is as juiced as the Raiders seems to be, a 2-touchdown loss feels like too much. Give me a professional team with an added 14 points and that should hit.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Raiders+13.5 (-110)
The Bank – Week 11
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $84.65 | $108.54 |
| Risk: | $45.00 | $47.00 |
| Record: | 23 – 26 – 2 | 43 – 40 – 3 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 16 – 17 – 2 | 31 – 27 – 3 |
| Record on the Tease Killer of the Week: | 1 – 1 | 1 – 2 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 