Intro by Yank
Welcome back one and all to our favorite weekend of the year. A set of days dominated by food and football, I ask you my friends, how do you beat it? As we slam food into our bellies the NFL continues to slam new games into the schedule giving us not one, not two, not three, but now FOUR midweek games if you count Black Friday(and you better believe we do). Our record on past Thanksgivings is spotty but we feel great about this years slate, so grab some Turkey and your favorite sides and stuff your face with these picks.
Thanksgiving Day Picks
The Green Bay Packers @ the Detroit Lions-7.5
Yank: Let’s start with this, the Lions have an outstanding record against the spread this year even after last week’s ATS loss. It would be easy to get spooked by the fact that they underperformed against the lowly Bears last week especially given that this is another division game. Admittedly the division game aspect of all these games is my biggest worry, if the Packers are poised for a bit of a breakout it likely starts here. That said, we’ve been working hard to base our picks on the body of work as opposed to last week’s results. On that basis, the Lions should roll here, and exorcize some Detroit demons of starting Thanksgiving every year getting dominated by the Packers.
Sam: -7.5 is really giving me anxiety after last week’s letdown, but that letdown has to be the reason they back the Lions here. Think about this as trying turkey again after a bad experience last year. You know there’s a way to make it better. You just have to not overbake some throws like Goff did last week, and you’ll be in for a tasty meal. The Packers escaped with a win last week, which adds to the sweetness of this recipe. The Packers have demonstrated that they’re not a good football team. Both teams will fall back to their norms today.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Lions-7.5 (-110)
Sam’s Play: $6.00 on the Lions-8.5 (-108)
The Washington Commanders @ the Dallas Cowboys-12.5
Sam: How many times have we said this? How many times have we won money off of this? Dallas destroys bad teams. They’re one of the best teams at making bad teams look BAD. They are not afraid to score and the defense will make life no fun for you Sam Howell. I don’t love betting the Commanders after a letdown performance, they’re ripe for regression, but the Cowboys are like the stuffing… well they’re stuffing our pockets with cold hard cash.
Yank: Sam clearly lays out the case and I won’t be redundant. The Cowboys are fake good, they dominate horrible teams and struggle against real opponents. They are excited to send Ron Rivera to his doom today, it will make Mike McCarthy feel good about himself. The Commanders O-Line gave up a rash of sacks to the lowly Giants, this Cowboys D-Line is going to FEAST today. This game also marks the beginning of our All Our Favorite Dishes Parlay.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Cowboys-10.5 (-110) $16.13 on a ML parlay DAL/SF/MIA (-108)
Sam’s Play: $5.00 on the Cowboys-13.5 (-108) and $13.00 on a ML parlay DAL/SF/MIA (-130)
The San Francisco 49ers-7 @ the Seattle Seahawks
Yank: I am back to my many-times repeated logic. The 49ers with everyone healthy on offense may be the best team in the league. They are likely to score 30+ per game and win/cover more often than not. They are close to an autobet for me going forward. The division game aspect once again gives me some pause, but Geno Smith/Drew Lock ultimately isn’t going to cut it. Throw them in the parlay as well!
Sam: The reasoning for the Cowboys applies to the 49ers. This Thanksgiving they represent that one fun uncle who hasn’t been able to make it to the feast the last few years. Well, he’s healthy again, and ready to have some fun with Drew Lock’s pocket presence. Just like I’m an auto bet to get a second helping just so I can have more mashed potatoes, we’re betting the 49ers against teams like Seattle.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the 49ers-7 (-104) and $16.13 on a ML parlay DAL/SF/MIA (-108)
Sam’s Play: $5.00 on the 49ers-7 (-115) and $13.00 on a ML parlay DAL/SF/MIA (-130)
Black Friday Picks
The Miami Dolphins @ the New York Jets-9.5
Sam: Are you all here for the Tim Boyle fire sale? Me too. I can’t put enough money down on these Dolphins to make Tim Boyle look foolish. The Jets are going to look horrible, and while the Dolphins might not look as ferocious going up against that DLine, we know Tyreek will break 1, 2, maybe even 3 huge plays in the game. I think the reason the Jets didn’t move on from Zac earlier is because they saw Tim Boyle practicing and it looks great in comparison. Who knows, maybe this is DiNucci’s Law and we’ll be slamming our heads into our hands, but how could you bet on that?
Yank: As Sam mentions while Amazon had visions of Aaron Rodgers and Tyreek Hill fighting for a playoff spot with this matchup, instead we are left with the Tim Boyle bowl. Bad for entertainment value, but great for our wallets. This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to bet against Tim Boyle. He had a 1/13 TD/INT ratio in college at UCONN. His main NFL qualification is being Aaron Rodgers friend. Vic Fangio should have fun scheming this one up.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Dolphins-9 (-110) and $16.13 on a ML parlay DAL/SF/MIA (-108)
Sam’s Play: $6.00 on the Dolphins-9.5 (-110) and $13.00 on a ML parlay DAL/SF/MIA (-130)
Thanksgiving performances:
| Sam | Yank | |
| Against the Spread: | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Moneyline: | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Over/Unders: | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Props: | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Total: | 4-7 | 2-8 |
| Money: | -$15.52 | -$5.79 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 