Intro by Sam
Week 13 is shaping up to be a doozy. For the last few weeks, Yank and I have identified a strategy to take the best teams against bad teams. This strategy has paid out incredibly well. Since Week 9, I’ve won just over $80.00 and Yank has won just under $60.00. It’s safe to say we love this strategy. Unfortunately, this strategy doesn’t quite line up this week given the number of teams on bye and the two best teams facing off against each other. We had to come up with new strategies and it led to some unusual divisions in our takes, but first a quick recap of Week 12.
Recap
We cooled off a bit from our recent pace in Week 12, but that was kind of to be expected since the bulk of our efforts were focused on the Turkey Day picks. Nevertheless, neither of us lost money which is always a good thing.
For starters, we started off hot with the Steelers covering on the road against the Bengals and Yank got some extra juice accurately predicting that neither the Patriots nor the Giants would put up points – hence the under. In fact, he nearly predicted the final score exactly. Our one loss of the week came at the hands of the Browns, who we had in a ML parlay with the Dolphins. The Browns fell apart in the mile-high stadium and took down the second leg of our parlay. We finished the day with a push in our Sunday Night pick with the Eagles needing overtime to cover -3 against the Bills. Never love a push, but it beats losing straight up. On to Week 13!
Week 13 Picks
The Collaboration:
No identified Collaboration this week.
Tease Killer of the Week:
The Kansas City Chiefs @ the Green Bay Packers+6.5
Sam: I’m not convinced that Green Bay’s recent stretch of decent play is anything but schedule luck, but I am going to back them this week against the Chiefs. While the Chiefs have shown flashes, they don’t seem to be the same unit they were the last few years. I’m expecting a low-scoring game and throw in a cold Lambeau atmosphere, the Pack should be able to do enough to cover here.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Packers+6 (-110)
The Confrontation:
The Los Angeles Chargers-6 @ the New England Patriots
Yank: Does the old man have anything left in the tank? That’s the key question for this game, which on its face seems like an easy Chargers W. I can’t help but feel like something is off here. For one, the Chargers can and will lose to anyone. For two, Bill Belichick is 7-3 straight up all-time against the Chargers. And for three, again, counting on this Brandon Staley-led Chargers team to come through, ever, is a recipe to make yourself sad. I hate this Pats team who lost to my awful Giants, but I also hate the Chargers, who probably should not be favored by 6 against anyone.
Sam: This matchup has been hotly contested in the text threads. As Yank lays out, he’s convinced this is a too-easy bet for the Chargers. And yet, I feel like it’s the complete opposite. I feel like everyone is all over the Patriots – or at least has labeled this the game the Patriots win for no reason. That may be the case. The Chargers suck, there’s no doubt about that, but the Patriots are abysmal. Since our strategy of the last couple of weeks doesn’t line up with the matchups this week, I’m taking all of the favorites that are playing the bottom-of-the-barrel teams. Give me the Chargers against the dead Pats while I hold my nose.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Chargers-5 (-110)
Yanks Pick: $3.00 on the Patriots ML (+200) and $3.00 on the Patriots+5 (-110)
The San Francisco 49ers @ the Philadelphia Eagles+3
Sam: This game is the main reason our recent strategy doesn’t work this week. The two juggernauts of the NFC are facing each other, and while I think the 49ers are potentially more loaded than the Eagles, I’ll probably bet the Eagles whenever they’re dogs, especially at home. I also think while the 49ers will want revenge for the NFC championship game, they whined enough about how they didn’t have a fair shot and should’ve won blah, blah, blah, that I actually think it gives the Eagles extra incentive to show the 49ers it wasn’t just chance. We’ll call it a sneaky revenge game.
Yank: This line seems WAY too high in favor of the 49ers on the road, almost like the oddsmakers didn’t see the game is in Philadelphia. The sportsbooks don’t make mistakes though which means some smart people must really like San Fran. If you squint it seems like the Eagles could be due to finally blow a game, they’ve been flirting with it for weeks. I’ll take the Niners to win.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Eagles+3 (-110)
Yank’s Pick: $8.00 on a 49ers ML/Dolphins-2.5 Parlay (+115)
The Isolation:
The Indianapolis Colts-1 @ the Tennessee Titans
Sam: As I mentioned in my Chargers pick, this fits the bill of betting against dead teams. The Titans are dead. They barely snuck out a win against the even-deader Panthers, but don’t let that fool you. And while I’m not in love with the Colts – they are firmly meh – the Titans won’t offer much resistance. At this point in the season, it’s better for the Titans to lose and that’s what I’m betting they’ll do.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Colts-1 (-110)
The Carolina Panthers @ the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-5
Sam: The last of my bet against the abysmals strategy this week comes in the form of taking the Bucs at home against the Panthers. There’s a large possibility of Jeff Saturday’s Law coming into effect here, especially since we’re looking at the same head coach getting fired in Frank Reich. The difference here is that the Panthers are just lacking talent. Bryce Young has no chance behind that OLine and with those weapons. When you add that Tampa is playing at home, I’ll take my shot with the Bucs.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Bucs-3 (-115)
The Bank – Week 13
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $113.76 | $139.27 |
| Risk: | $ | $25.00 |
| Record: | 32 – 32 – 3 | 54 – 47 – 4 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 22 – 20 – 3 | 39 – 30 – 4 |
| Record on the Tease Killer of the Week: | 1 – 2 | 1 – 4 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 