Intro by Yank
With the new schedule since the advent of the 17 game season, Week 14 is a strange part of the NFL calendar. It feels like the season should be winding down, but most teams still have 5 games left, which is almost ⅓ of the season? There are two Monday Night games this week, at the exact same time for god knows what reason? Ultimately more football than you’d expect is a good thing I guess. Let’s batten down the hatches and win some bets.
Recap
The strangeness began last week as we expected. Sam was all over the Packers taking down the reigning champs in Lambeau. We also had the Chargers cover the spread in a game where they only scored 6 total points to Sam’s delight and my chagrin. The shoe was on the other foot in Niners/Eagles where I managed to back the correct NFC contender. Luckily for Sam the Colts and Bucs came through to keep his week in the black.
Week 14 Picks
The Collaboration:
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ the Atlanta Falcons-2.5
Yank: You’ve seen a lot of bets against Atlanta on this blog and our strategy here is “why stop now? *shrug emoji*”. Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder are still bad. You may say, well guys the Bucs are also bad, and my friend you’d be right, but if we can get plus money to go against the Falcons we are just going to take it and ask questions later.
Sam: This one’s on me if it doesn’t workout. This is the battle of the meh’s. We’ve decided to take underdogs when it’s meh against meh so this one fits the bill. They lost this head to head earlier in the season and the Falcons aren’t very good, so I’d expect the Bucs to come in with a little more motivation. They’ve also demonstrated that Mike Evans can break any game open.
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Bucs+2.5 and $2.50 on the Bucs ML (+115)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on a moneyline parlay Bucs/49ers (+144)
The Indianapolis Colts @ the Cincinnati Bengals-2.5
Sam: The rationale is pretty similar to the Bucs one. The Colts have demonstrated that they’re capable of being competent and the Bengals are an unknown with Jake Browning. Even if we set aside Browning’s big game from last week, the Bengals haven’t been much to write home about this season. The fear here is of course that whenever Ja’Marr Chase touches the football, it’s likely going for 6. The colts defense will have its work cut out for it, but given the Bengals topsy turvy record even with its starting QB, why not back the team getting the points?
Yank: Sam lays it out pretty well, this is another chance to get plus odds on a team that probably should be favored. Last time I checked Cincinnati is still starting a backup QB. The Colts have been decidedly competent on both sides of the ball and have made their bones with a strong D-line. Seems like a nice recipe to take on a backup, even one who had a nice game last week on MNF.
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Colts+2 and $2.50 on the Colts ML (+114)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on a moneyline parlay Colts/Niners (+150)
The Carolina Panthers @ the New Orleans Saints-6
Yank: I’m scared of this pick, but Sam has been hot and so I’m following his lead. We are going to go against the Panthers from here on out. Their O-Line is so bad and their confidence is so low it seems more likely than not their slide continues down the stretch. If they go 2-3 ATS we win money, and we will try to scratch out a little profitability any way that we can (you are welcome in advance people of Charlotte).
Sam: The good news: the Panthers are 2-8-2 ATS. The bad news? The Saints are 2-9-1 ATS. As Yank lays out, this bet is about taking the team playing the Panthers the rest of the way. Sure, they don’t have a pick to play for, but man they are sorely lacking in the talent department. We should’ve been on this strategy from the jump, but we’ll try to get on board now. The Saints, while only a mid-team, are playing for something. They still have a chance to win this division, so I expect their defense, the strength of this team to do a number on the Panthers offense.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Saints-5.5 (-115)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Saints-5.5 (-105)
The Seattle Seahawks @ the San Francisco 49ers-11
Sam: The 49ers have made us decent money so far this season and there’s no sign that’ll be slowing down anytime soon. While 13 is a high number, the Seahawks are potentially looking at playing Drew Lock against a ferocious defense. Add in that the 49ers offense is healthy again and has torn teams up left and right, you might not be able to set a line high enough for the disparity here.
Yank: The 49ers are undefeated when Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams both play. Deebo Smauel and Trent Williams are scheduled to play in this game.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the 49ers-13 (-110)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the 49ers-11 (-110)
The Minnesota Vikings-3 @ the Las Vegas Raiders
Yank: We have a longstanding standing tradition of betting teams on the road who are favored coming off of their bye. In this scenario teams cover the spread close to 60% of the time over the last 20 years. That is good enough for punters like Sam and I to latch on to. I’m willing to blind bet any road favorite coming off the bye and so that takes us to the desert with boys in purple this week.
Sam: Yank lays out the logic behind this pick, I’ll give you the heart. Dobbs is back and synched up with O’Connell. The Vikings really lost the last two games on borderline parody turnovers. With two weeks to prepare, I expect a better version of Dobbs and this Vikings offense.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Vikings-3 (-106)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Vikings-3 (-106)
The Tennessee Titans @ the Miami Dolphins-13
Sam: This is a double whammy of our recent strategy. We get the Dolphins who are one of the best teams in football. The offense can score in a second, and with the defense getting healthy and Vic Fangio at the helm, they’re becoming a complete team. We’ve liked good teams ATS most of the season, now we’re pairing that up with taking teams playing bottom of the barrel teams, enter the Titans. The Titans are on life support, their season is essentially finished and they’ve shown they are not afraid to lay down during a game. Dolphins by a million.
Yank: Sam’s got it here, at this point we believe in Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins offense as premiere unit in football. Pair that up with the almost tanking Titans and you have yourself a recipe for a lot of points. No reason to overthink this one, get used to seeing fast guys in teal and orange streaming towards the end zone for another week.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Dolphins-13 (-110)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Dolphins-13 (-110)
Tease Killer of the Week:
No identified TKOW this week.
The Confrontation:
No identified Confrontation this week.
The Isolation:
No identified Isolation this week.
The Bank – Week 14
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $116.96 | $147.92 |
| Risk: | $30.00 | $33.00 |
| Record: | 33 – 34 – 3 | 57 – 48 – 5 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 22 – 21 – 3 | 42 – 31 – 5 |
| Record on the Tease Killer of the Week: | 1 – 2 | 2 – 4 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 