Intro by Sam
This week is about rinsing the bad taste out of our mouths and pushing forward with the strategies that have been successful the majority of the last few weeks. We’ve seen a lot of success and we won’t let this speed bump stop us.
Recap
Last week was a bit of a hiccup. Nothing terrible, but not quite the success we had been used to the last few weeks. For starters, we had a couple of hits. The Bucs took care of business on the road against the Falcons, the Saints beat down the pitiful Panthers, and Yank and I split the 49ers ATS. I had a bad line of -13, while Yank covered it with -11. Alas.
Things started to go south for us when we lost a never-a-doubter with Cincy smashing the Colts.
Somehow we were disappointed with a Vikings -3 push against the Raiders, although if you had told me the Vikings would only score 3 points, I think a push would’ve been a shock. And to cap off our disappointment, we were on the wrong side of that crazy Titans-Dolphins game. I stopped looking when were in a firm position to cover, only to wake up to find out the Dolphins lost outright. While not a horrible showing, that ends a 6-week streak of winning for me. Yank has a chance to keep his 6-weeker rolling this week – let’s hope he gets it done!
Week 15 Picks
The Collaboration:
The Atlanta Falcons-3 @ the Carolina Panthers
Yank: As the good book says, if it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Carolina is totally in shambles with a mismatched coaching staff, patchwork offensive line, and broken rookie QB. They are desperate to get to the offseason. Everyone knows I hate Atlanta but even that hate isn’t strong enough to keep me from betting against Carolina down the stretch. The Panthers may get us once in these last 4 weeks, but they should get blown out at least 3 times.
Sam: This spread would have covered in Week 1 when they faced off the first time. What has changed to make you think the outcome will be any different this week? As much as we hate Atlanta, betting against the Panthers who have covered the spread twice this season feels like free money. They’ll be a staple for us the rest of the way.
Sam’s Pick: $7.00 on the Falcons-2.5 (-120)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Falcons-3 (-105)
The San Francisco 49ers-12 @ the Arizona Cardinals
Sam: I was on the sad end of a weird line last week with the 49ers. Yank covered after getting the 49ers at -11 while I missed at -13. And even weirder is that we placed our bets within a few hours of each other. All that to say, while these lines can make it close, the 49ers consistently win by double digits. I’d expect them to cover a meager 12 points against the Cardinals even if it is a road division game.
Yank: The 49ers have been snakes and chainsaws every week where they have had their full complement of players. Guess what, this week, all their guys are playing again. Arizona is feisty but it will likely take 24+ points to cover. I’m happy to ride with San Francisco.
Sam’s Pick: $6.00 on the 49ers-11.5 (-115)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the 49ers-12.5 (-105)
The Philadelphia Eagles-3 @ the Seattle Seahawks
Yank: Everyone hates the Eagles all of a sudden, but I’m not buying it. So they lost to two of the best teams in the NFC? What happened when they played other worse NFC teams? Oh yeah, that’s right they’ve beaten them all. I don’t expect that to change this week whether it’s Geno Smith or hapless Drew Lock under center.
Sam: Yank lays this one out perfectly. The Eagles are still a good football team despite two losses. And even though they’ve been beaten down the last two weeks, this is the perfect spot for a bounce-back game. The Seahawks are either playing an injured Geno Smith or running out Drew Lock. Give me the Eagles defense against either of those QBs even if they’ve been picked apart lately.
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on a ML parlay Eagles/Chiefs (+106)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on a ML parlay Eagles/Chiefs (-102)
The Kansas City Chiefs-8 @ the New England Patriots
Sam: The Patriots *sort of* showed signs of life against the Steelers on TNF, but as we all know, TNF games can be weirdddd. I wouldn’t read too much into it. The Patriots are still on a mission to find their next great QB and beating the Chiefs would endanger the odds there. Additionally, the Patriots formerly well-run ship is starting to show signs of dysfunction. Belichick is potentially on the outs, players are openly criticizing roster moves and talking about how bad they are to other teams. Nothing about what’s happening in New England screams a team that’s going to play together. And that’s what it’s going to take after the Chiefs meltdown against the Bills. I expect the Chiefs to come out hot here.
Yank: To Sam’s point above we think the Patriots are D-E-A-D. Congrats to them on beating Trubisky but beating the angry Chiefs coming off a brutal loss is another thing entirely. The Chiefs haven’t been awesome but they should be able to put up 16 points at least. Will New England score 6? The fact that it’s worth discussing says everything I need to know.
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on a ML parlay Eagles/Chiefs (+106) and $5.00 on the Chiefs-8.5 (-105)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on a ML parlay Eagles/Chiefs (-102) and $5.00 on Game U38.5 parlayed with 49ers ML (+106)
Tease Killer of the Week:
No identified TKOW this week.
The Confrontation:
The Dallas Cowboys @ the Buffalo Bills-1.5
Yank: I know this is somewhat of a bad idea before we even get started. I’ve made a lot of hay this year betting ON the Cowboys (who I hate) and at least profiting off of my sadness. That said I like going against the team everyone was most impressed with the prior week in a clear letdown spot, and that is absolutely Dallas this week. Additionally, this Dallas team thrives in a track meet, but Buffalo in December is not a great place to host one. Meanwhile, the Bills are catching their stride at the right time, giving me the vapors from those Giants teams that got hot late in 2007/2011, and I think they could legitimately go on a run. I’ll take my chances with the Bills in this one.
Sam: Yank is right that one of these teams is getting hot at the right time, but I’m betting that he picked the wrong team. The Cowboys are blazing right now and I am going to ride the hot team, especially as an underdog. Sure, this is a classic Cowboys letdown spot, and if I lose, at least the Cowboys lose too. But I don’t think this game is going to be close. The Cowboys defense will make life hard for Josh Allen and Dak will keep the offense marching on.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Cowboys+1.5 (+100) and $3.00 on the Cowboys ML (+110)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Bills-1.5 (+100)
The Isolation:
The New York Giants @ the New Orleans Saints-5.5
Sam: I’m going to ride the hot team in this one. Give me the Italian Scallion, aka Tommy Cutlets, aka Tommy Sausage. The Giants pick has little to do with the offense and more to do with the defense. The Giants can still play complementary football, and the Saints are a great team to take advantage of this week. Derek Carr’s welcome is running out and add this to his list of not-achievements this season.
Sam’s Pick: $3.00 on the Giants+5.5 (-105) and $2.00 on the Giants ML (+205)
The Bank – Week 15
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $123.52 | $142.13 |
| Risk: | $25.00 | $34.00 |
| Record: | 35 – 36 – 4 | 60 – 52 – 6 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 24 – 22 – 4 | 44 – 33 – 6 |
| Record on the Tease Killer of the Week: | 1 – 2 | 2 – 4 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 