Intro by Yank
Happy Festivus everyone! I have a lot of problems with all these NFL teams. It’s time for the airing of grievances which should help us get into the Christmas spirit and hopefully get some holiday cheer on our side for the games on Sunday and Monday. I’ll go get the pole out of the crawl space.
Recap
It’s pitch-perfect to start our Festivus with a complaint about the awful Falcons, who could not get it done against the Panthers. Really the grievance should be with ourselves for backing them at all. Next up for our disdain are the Eagles and erstwhile coordinator Matt Patricia who couldn’t come up with a key stop against Drew Lock of all people. The Giants also drew Sam’s ire looking totally lifeless against the Saints. Thankfully it wasn’t all bad as the 49ers continued to come through for us, and the Bills dominated the Cowboys for me. On to week 16!
Week 16 Picks
The Collaboration:
The Green Bay Packers-4 @ the Carolina Panthers
Yank: We said we will go against Carolina every week and we will not be deterred by them inevitably getting a win against lowly Atlanta. Green Bay has a lot of injuries and porous defense but Carolina is really, really, REALLY, bad.
Sam: The Panthers played in a monsoon last week against an infuriating Falcons team. I wouldn’t worry about that production carrying over. I actually think the win solidifies ATS losses the rest of the way. They got their win, they don’t have to feel miserable anymore. Now the next stop is regrouping in the postseason. The Packers have to win this game to keep their postseason hopes alive. Everything is pointing to the Packers this week.
Sam’s Pick: $7.00 on the Packers-4.5 (-115) and $5.00 on a Packers/Broncos ML Parlay (-112)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Packers-4.5 (-110)
The Detroit Lions-3 @ the Minnesota Vikings
Sam: The Vikings are staring at a must-win game at home against a division opponent. We’ve laid out earlier this season that we want to take home teams as dogs in division games. Division games are so much harder for teams because they know each other so well. In this case, the Vikings know how they can exploit a weak Detroit defense, while the Vikings will make Jared Goff uncomfortable. If the Vikings defense, which has been getting pressure all year, can generate pressure against Goff he’s liable to turn the ball over and give the Vikings offense a shot to put the nail in the coffin.
Yank: This Vikings team has been remarkably solid even amidst a revolving door at quarterback. As Sam mentions above this is a pure fade of the Lions defense, which has been horrific in recent weeks against teams with even a hint of a pulse. Additionally, this game is in Minnesota in a home stadium that should be rocking due to a whiteout environment. Backing the Vikings at plus odds here feels like a worthwhile investment. We’re throwing in the Eagles in a bounce-back spot against my awful Giants to juice the odds even more.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on a Vikings/Eagles ML Parlay (+170)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on a Vikings/Eagles ML Parlay (+170)
The Dallas Cowboys @ the Miami Dolphins-2.5
Yank: The Cowboys looked horrible last week but overreacting to last week’s performance is the surest way to lose money. Neither one of these teams is consistent so I believe any outcome for this game is possible. As of this writing, several Dolphins’ starting OL are injured and may miss this game. The Cowboys DLine may be the best in the NFL, that’s enough for me to take a shot on them to take this one. I’m throwing in the Chiefs who are 10-point favorites against the Raiders on Monday to add some extra value.
Sam: We’ve made money on the Dolphins being a good-bad team this season. They’ve shown they’re capable of laying 70 points on bad teams while they struggle with good teams. Although the Cowboys are also a good-bad team – as evidenced by their performance last week – we like them in a bounce-back spot here. As Yank explains, the Cowboys’ defensive line can make a real difference in this one.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Cowboys ML (+104) and $5.00 on a Cowboys/Chiefs ML Parlay (+142)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on a Cowboys/Chiefs ML Parlay (+142)
Tease Killer of the Week:
No identified TKOW this week.
The Confrontation:
The Buffalo Bills-13 @ the Los Angeles Chargers
Yank: I want to start this by saying, I really like the way the Bills are playing. I think they are playing the best football in the AFC, if they can get into the playoffs they have a real shot to make a run. All that being said this is a super weird spot. After the Cowboys game, this is a huge letdown opportunity against a team without their QB. Normally playing in LA is a great opportunity to see road team fans, but I doubt many Bills fans are traveling two days before Christmas for this one. Finally, and most importantly, we established last year that the first game for an interim coach is a GREAT opportunity to take the team who just fired their coach, i.e. Jeff Saturday’s law. The Chargers are guaranteed to look more motivated this week and they are coming off three days extra rest. I am going to do the unthinkable and go for the middle by betting BOTH the Chargers to cover this crazy spread and also bet the Bills to win.
Sam: I’m going against Yank on this one. I think the Chargers are dead. The Bills are notorious for blowing out bad teams and Easton Stick neutralizes any Jeff Saturday’s law application. The Chargers are playing for picks and the Bills are playing for a Super Bowl birth.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Bills-12 (-110)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Chargers+13 (-117) and $5.00 on a Bills/Colts ML Parlay (+145)
The Isolation:
The Indianapolis Colts @ the Atlanta Falcons-2.5
Yank: I hate this stupid Atlanta team. They should never be favored against anyone. They have awful QB play and one of the worst HCs in the league. The Colts are fighting for a playoff spot and need this game. Give me Indianapolis.
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on a Bills/Colts ML Parlay (+145)
The New York Giants @ the Philadelphia Eagles-11.5
Sam: I’m not a believer in the Eagles-demise rumors. They’ve been too good for too long for it to be a fluke. Do they need to play better? Absolutely. Are they considering a QB change? Absolutely not. The Giants arrive at the perfect time for this Eagles team that has owned the Giants for the last few years. The Eagles will continue that trend, as will notorious Giants killer, Boston Scott. I’m putting a few on Scott anytime TD and considered betting Scott 2+ TDs.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Eagles-11.5 (-112), $5.00 on a Vikings/Eagles ML Parlay (+170), and $2.00 on Boston Scott anytime TD (+280)
The Bank – Week 16
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $118.28 | $128.11 |
| Risk: | $30.00 | $44.00 |
| Record: | 38 – 39 – 4 | 62 – 58 – 6 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 26 – 23 – 4 | 46 – 37 – 6 |
| Record on the Tease Killer of the Week: | 1 – 2 | 2 – 4 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 