Intro by Yank
Week 18 has arrived. On the one hand, I feel like the season just started! On the other hand, the season definitely feels like it’s been going on forever. Like it or not this is our last chance to bet on (or against) most teams, so let’s make it count!
Recap
Last week was a perfect illustration of how 2023 has gone for the blog boys. Our multi-week strategies of betting on San Francisco and against Carolina continue to pay off. We also had smart instincts; Sam with the Giants against the Rams and me with the Bears against the Falcons. Unfortunately, the Giants and Eagles (whom I had thrown in a parlay with Chicago) ultimately lost and doomed what could have been a nice payday. The more things change the more they stay the same.
Week 18 Picks
The Collaboration:
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers-4 @ the Carolina Panthers
Yank One last time into the breach against the 2023 Panthers. You are probably sick of hearing it at this point so I won’t belabor the point: they are bad. Tampa Bay just needs to win to win the division and something feels fishy about this line to me so I am loading up on the Bucs moneyline.
Sam: A sub-plot to our strategies this week is picking every team to win that I need to lose for the Vikings to make the playoffs. This recipe accounts for two things: 1. If our stink is on point, then the Vikings should make the playoffs. 2. If we’re right, we win money. As far as this matchup goes, Yank has it correct. The Panthers stink. It’s been great betting against them all season – and some say we should’ve started sooner. Here’s to one last line!
Sam’s Pick: $10.25 on the Bucs ML (-205)
Yank’s Pick: $10.00 on the Bucs ML (-210)
The Seattle Seahawks-3 @ the Arizona Cardinals
Sam: Geno Smith hasn’t been as great as last year and the Seahawks have truly struggled at times. They have one last game against a division rival. The Cardinals should be toast in this one, but you never know with a division game. The safe play here is taking the money line and hoping for the best (or a clean sweep of the teams the Vikings need to get in).
Yank: Another win-and-in-game here for Seattle, who has been up and down all season. Arizona had their Super Bowl last week and won it, they may be satisfied at this point. You’ll start to see a pattern here for this week; I’m taking lots of teams on the money line who just need to win to get into the playoffs. This one could be ugly but I think Seattle pulls it out.
Sam’s Pick: $7.25 on the Seahawks ML (-145)
Yank’s Pick: $10.00 on the Seahawks ML (-145)
The Chicago Bears @ the Green Bay Packers-3
Yank: Did you see the Packers offense against the Vikings last weekend? They looked like the best unit in football. Some of that may have been a mirage but there is no question this team is firing on all cylinders. Now all it takes to make the playoffs is a win at home against a team they have owned for a decade plus? Sign me up for a wager on that one.
Sam: Yank lays out all the reasons why I hope this bet fails miserably. The Packers picked the Vikings apart, but I think they’ll have a harder time against a Bears defense that has been pretty good as of late. The addition of Montez Sweat has given them a true edge threat to put pressure on Jordan Love. I’m betting the Packers to win because I want them to lose so badly that it won’t happen, but don’t be surprised if Packers fans are in for a surprise this week. They’ve been accustomed to great QB play but I think Love still has a lot to prove and if he’s riding a high from last week, I think he could be in for a rude awakening this week.
Sam’s Pick: $10.00 on the Packers (-148)
Yank’s Pick: $10.00 on the Packers (-150)
The Minnesota Vikings @ the Detroit Lions-4
Sam: What a rollercoaster of a season this was for the Vikings. From catching our stride with Cousins, to his Achilles tear, to Dobbs-mania, to the Dobbs/Mullens/Hall/Mullens turnover fest. It’s been a doozy. At this stage, it’s in the best interest of the Vikings to lose this game. Here’s to hoping a loss today secures future Vikings QB Michael Pennix Jr!
Yank: I hate to say it but the Vikings are dead. They had their shot last weekend and they blew it on national TV. Meanwhile, this Lions team still has a chance at the two seed and since this game is at 1 pm and Dallas plays at 4:25 they will need to win to keep their chances alive. The Lions are a much better home than road team and that should manifest itself here as well.
Sam’s Pick: $6.00 on the Lions ML (-196) and $5.00 on the Lions-4 (-108)
Yank’s Pick: $10.00 on the Lions ML (-185)
Tease Killer of the Week:
No identified TKOW this week.
The Confrontation:
The Philadelphia Eagles-4.5 @ the New York Giants
Yank: This is a classic pick with my heart folks, but there is also some logic behind it. People keep expecting the Eagles to bounce back but what if they are really just not that good? They haven’t played well in weeks. Additionally, if Dallas is winning in Washington by a significant amount in the second half this Eagles team will have nothing to play for. Daboll has had his team fighting the last few weeks and I expect that to continue. I expect the Giants to put forth significant effort to finally get a W against the Eagles here, regardless of the players Philly has in the game.
Sam: Yank has a logical approach to this selection, meanwhile, I’m going with chaos, and as we all know, chaos is a ladder. While I don’t think the Cowboys lose to the Commanders, it’s not entirely impossible. The recent history of the Cowboys has been a traumatic disappointment. They find devastating ways to hurt their fans and with the division technically still on the line, what would be worse than showing against a division opponent – and one who’s coach could have his last hurrah? This coupled with an Eagles win would flip the division winner in favor of Philadelphia. FYI – this bet is essentially the same as betting the Eagles to win the division, but books only have that at +750. I wanted to squeeze out a little extra juice because I don’t think the Commanders and Cowboys will tie.
Sam’s Pick: $2.00 on an Eagles and Commanders ML Parlay (+905)
Yank’s Pick: $10.00 on the Giants ML (+190)
The Isolation:
The Jacksonville Jaguars-4.5 @ the Tennessee Titans
Yank: Everyone is counting out the Titans but what if the Jags just stink? I like betting on Vrabel and will take one more shot at it just in case this is my last chance.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Titans+4.5 (-110)
The Bank – Week 18
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $96.78 | $104.42 |
| Risk: | $55.00 | $40.50 |
| Record: | 41 – 45 – 4 | 65 – 67- 6 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 29 – 25 – 4 | 49 – 40 – 6 |
| Record on the Tease Killer of the Week: | 1 – 2 | 2 – 4 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 