Intro by Yank
The Divisional Round might be the best NFL weekend of the year. Enough teams left for there to be lots of football on both Saturday and Sunday but at this point, the wheat has been fully separated from the chaff as they say in the Midwest. Can the one seeds reap what they sowed after earning the all-important bye last week? Should we bet the farm on the teams that have gotten hot lately? Are all my eggs in one basket with the farming metaphors? In any event, given how close we are to the end of the season, Sam and I intend to make hay while the sun shines this week.
Recap
Last week was terrible, snakes and chainsaws for the casinos and your boys just kept drawing dead. Thankfully we used our powers for good to get Dallas, Philly, and Cleveland embarassed on their way out the door, but it was a bad weekend for our wallets. The less said about it the better; we are on to the Divisional Round.
Divisional Round Picks
Saturday Picks
The Houston Texans @ the Baltimore Ravens-9.5
Yank: This Texans team is plucky and CJ Stroud already looks like a dude. I’ve liked them since Week 1, when funnily enough they played the Ravens. While this team has grown a lot since that early loss, I don’t think they have the firepower to keep up here on what should be a tremendously cold day in Baltimore. Houston won their Super Bowl last week with some significant help from Joe Flacco, but I don’t think Lamar Jackson will be a particularly ingratiating host this week. I like the Ravens big in this one.
Sam: Yank covers the Texans bit of this. They had their fun in the sun. This week Lamar Jackson and the Ravens look to put their playoff woes behind them. Lamar has faced a lot of criticism for his lack of playoff success. I think he’s ready to take the leap and put the doubters in their place.
Sam’s Pick: $6.90 on the Ravens-8.5 (-115), $15.03 on a Ravens/Lions ML Parlay (-151), and $5.00 on the Ravens ML (-460)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on Ravens-9 (-110) and $15.00 on a Ravens/Lions ML Parlay (-150)
The Green Bay Packers @ the San Francisco 49ers-9.5
Sam: Well I certainly won’t be rooting for the Packers in this one, but I learned my lesson from last week. I’d rather be on their side to cover than on the other side while they win. The Packers showed enough offensively to make us think they have a chance against the Niners this week, but it won’t be an easy task. With the Niners fully healthy, they’ve demonstrated that they are a bit of a wrecking ball. At the end of the day, this one feels like a bit of a toss-up for the spread so we’ll take the underdog.
Yank: I’ve been the guy telling you every week that if Deebo and Trent Williams are playing the 49ers are a cover machine. That strategy was a boon for us this year and I thank San Francisco for their service. At the same time, I can’t get a couple of advanced stats out of my head: since mid-way through the year the Packers have a top 5 offense by EPA. To Sam’s point, we saw it with our own eyes as they roasted the Cowboys last week. Meanwhile, the Niners defense on the year is 22nd in success rate, aka teams have largely been able to move the ball on them. I think turnovers and big plays will be the difference in this one (high-level analysis there) because both teams will be able to score. Ten just feels like way too many points for a game I think the Packers have a legitimate shot to win.
Sam’s Pick: $7.00 on the Packers+10 (-108)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Packers+10 (-110)
Sunday Picks
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ the Detroit Lions-6.5
Yank: Shoutout to Baker Mayfield for being baseline competent with excellent weapons out wide. And my sincere gratitude to the Bucs organization for trouncing the Eagles last week. Guess who trounced the Eagles the week before that? The New York Football Giants – one of the 6 worst teams in the league. Now this Bucs team is headed on the road, to face arguably the most fired-up fanbase in the sport. It is going to be LOUD at Ford Field. The Lions offense may have the best overall group of playmakers left with Gibbs, St. Brown, and LaPorta. Meanwhile, Todd Bowles is still the Bucs HC, and he can’t wait for his chance to punt and kick field goals in as many key situations as possible. I’ve been saying it all year and I want to say it for one last time this week: this Bucs team stinks. Loading up against them is my favorite play this week.
Sam: The Lions arguably had a harder matchup last week than they do this week. The Rams had them on the ropes, but thanks to McVay taking the points, the Lions escaped with a win. Their defense showed some mettle for potentially the first time all season, and now it’s on the offense to shake off their jitters. Look for Goff and co to put up points in a hurry and Baker to have an untimely Flaccoian performance.
Sam’s Pick: $7.70 on the Lions-6 (-110) and $15.03 on a Ravens/Lions ML Parlay (-151)
Yanks Pick: $10.00 on the Lions-6 (-110) and $15.00 on a Lions/Ravens ML Parlay (-150)
The Kansas City Chiefs @ the Buffalo Bills-2.5
Sam: Much like the Packers-Niners game, this feels like it has all the makings of a toss-up. The Chiefs are fundamentally the Chiefs until they are dead, and perhaps more importantly, the Bills serial playoff disappointments until they prove otherwise. Nevertheless, it’s hard to shake just how bad the Chiefs have been this season. Some might’ve been thrown off the scent by a miserable cold weather game last week where the offense looked functional, but they were going up against a Miami team that was completely decimated. I’m not 100% convinced the Bills walk away with the win, but it feels like they’ve been the better team for the last 10+ weeks.
Yank: Sam makes the key point; are we sure this Chiefs team is any good? I know everyone including me is terrified to bet against Mahomes as an underdog, but last week against a team who was playing four edge rushers off the street (they literally signed three of them on Monday before the game), they managed 19 points until essentially garbage time. Andy Reid is going to continue to kick field goals in big moments. The bet here is that Josh Allen and the Bills Mafia can cause just enough chaos (the good kind) to pull out a W. We opening ourselves up to the bad chaos that comes with Josh Allen totally sinking this pick, but this Bills team has been hot and I think they keep it going. I like them as my Super Bowl pick and am going to ride with them ideally all the way to Vegas.
Sam’s Pick: $6.10 on the Bills-2.5 (-122)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Bills-2.5 (-120) and $5.00 on the Bills ML (-145)
The Bank – Divisional Round
| Yank | Sam | |
| Risk: | $45.00 | $47.73 |
| Potential Earnings: | $35.81 | $35.57 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 