Intro by Sam
The Penultimate week of football is upon us, and it should be a good one. We’ve got 4 of the best teams from the season and great storylines across the board. Will the Lions overcome the odds and restore the roar? Will we get another two weeks of Brock Purdy debate? Will Lamar put his playoff jitters behind him? Will Mahomes’ weapons fail him in the final hour? Yank and I can’t wait for these matchups, so let’s take a quick look back at our successful divisional round and get to today’s games.
Recap
Outside of the Bills, pretty much everything came up Sam and Yank. The Packers meltdown didn’t rob us, since we only had them in the spread, while the Ravens and Lions handled their matchups to get us both ML parlay and spread winnings. If only every week could be like last week.
Conference Championship Picks
The Kansas City Chiefs @ the Baltimore Ravens-4
Yank: The Ravens have been the unequivocal best team in the NFL this season. They have a +202 point differential against winning teams on the season so far. Nobody, literally nobody, has been able to stand against them. So why is the point spread only 4, at home, in what is going to be one of the most raucous environments the NFL can produce? In the other cornerrrrrrr: two-time Super Bowl MVP, two time league MVP, 6 time AFC conference championship game participant, the BEST QUARTERBACK ALIVE Patrick Mahomes. I’m obviously being dramatic I picked against the Chiefs twice already this playoffs, but Mahomes is starting to feel more and more inevitable. It doesn’t make sense to pick the Chiefs, but Mahomes has made a career of doing things that don’t make sense. If he carries this less talented team to the Super Bowl will you really be that surprised? Would it be surprising for this Ravens team who has not been on this big stage before to come up small in a big moment? Would it be surprising for the NFL to favor the Chiefs with penalty calls even on the road? Most importantly of all would you be surprised if all the gamblers you know who have the Ravens in moneyline parlays(aka everyone) lose their shirts? I want the Ravens to win, I hope I’m wrong, but an underdog almost always comes through in one of these games and if I have to pick one I’m picking the team with Patrick Mahomes.
Sam: Yank lays this one out nicely. Patrick Mahomes is obviously by a wide margin, the best quarterback in the NFL, and that is no disrespect to Lamar Jackson. Lamar has been awesome all season, so we should be in for a good one. That being said, I think the story of this one might be on the defensive side. The Chiefs quietly built a strong, young defense by nailing the draft, while the Ravens have always had a great defense. I think we’re going to see two heavyweight defenses, slugging it out and making life hard on the offense. That means points are going to be at a premium, and we’ve got two awesome kickers so it feels like it’s gonna come down to one of their legs in the last seconds of the game. In the end I think this is Lamar’s year so I have the ravens winning in a tight one.
Sam’s Pick: $5.75 on the Chiefs+4.5 (-115), $11.47 on a Ravens/49ers ML (-115), and $6.14 on the Ravens ML (-215)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Chiefs+4.5 (-110)
The Detroit Lions @ the San Francisco 49ers-7
Sam: Yank feels more confident about this one than I do, but at the same time, we’ve made money betting on the Niners juggernaut of an offense and stifling defense week after week. The more I think about it, the more this feels like a Niners blowout. Yes, the Lions have a high flying offense in their own right, but they’ve been prone to lapses, especially against defensive lines as good as the Niners. Goff could have a hard time staying in the pocket and usually their offense breaks down at that point. Meanwhile, Shanahan has had some time to address the shakiness of the Niners offense from last week. Teams often come out flat when they’ve had the week off and now they know what’s in store. This Niners team has gone for the kill over and over again, so in a game that makes me feel uneasy, I’m going with the Niners body of work that spans multiple seasons.
Yank: The 49ers undoubtedly looked terrible last weekend against the Packers and probably should have lost. That said I feel like in rising from the dead in that game the zombie version that returns may actually be harder and stronger for the experience. I don’t feel sure about many things this weekend, but the one thing I am confident in is that this San Francisco offense with its full complement of playmakers is going to move the ball up and down the field on the Lions defense, which is below average at best; they are in the bottom third of the league in success rate allowed. A driving force behind the Niners struggles last week was Brock Purdy’s small hands in a rainstorm; great news folks it’s supposed to be 70 and sunny in Santa Clara today. I think Niners offense versus Lions defense is a huge mismatch and the lion’s share (groan) of my bets this weekend are poised to take advantage. As for picking the game itself, the Lions enter riding high off two home wins. The key to the game will be Jared Goff who has been awesome indoors this year, particularly at home. I’m worried he’s likely to turn into a pumpkin, even one small mistake could be enough to blow this one open. For the second time in this blog I’m picking against what I want to happen but I can’t shake the feeling the Niners are going to roll here.
Sam’s Pick: $7.14 on the 49ers-7.5 (-102) and $11.47 on a Ravens/49ers ML (-115)
Yanks Pick: $5.00 on the Niners-7 (-115), $15.50 on the Niners 1H O13.5 (-155), $6.60 on Brock Purdy O275.5 passing yards (-110), $6.60 on Christian McCaffrey O84.5 rush yards (-110), and $6.60 on Jauan Jennings O17.5 receiving yards (-110)
The Bank – Conference Championships
| Yank | Sam | |
| Risk: | $45.30 | $30.50 |
| Potential Earnings: | $36.89 | $25.86 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 