Intro by Yank
Super Bowl weekend is here, and it always feels like it comes too quickly. Even after Conference Championship week where we barely picked anything right (at least I had the Chiefs) shooters shoot and your boys here on One Last Line make picks.
Most importantly, this year the big game is in LAS VEGAS, the home of flashing lights and taking chances. (editor’s note: and bad decisions…) They say Americans are going to bet $25B on this game so come join the party with us. We both make a pick on the game for posterity and then we get to your favorite action of the weekend: prop bets. We’ve organized our “prop-aganda” below based on bets on a craps table in honor of our friends in the desert. Step right up and toss the dice with us friends, and most importantly, good luck!
Super Bowl LVIII Picks
The San Francisco 49ers-1.5 @ the Kansas City Chiefs
Sam: When you find a table that’s hot, you gotta ride it out. In this case, the Chiefs are hot. Is the offense explosive like it used to be? No, but this Chiefs team has their mojo. After rolling through Miami, Buffalo, and Baltimore, the last two on the road, they’ve put up a dominant postseason run. And while the 49ers had to win 2 to get here, did going down big in both of those games inspire you? Did it make you feel like the 49ers have things figured out? Absolutely not. The Chiefs know who they are. They can ground out 8 minute possessions on the ground behind mad-kid-running Pacheco and Spagnuolo has put together 3 impressive game plans AND made impeccable halftime adjustments.And just when you need him most, Mahomes is still the ace in the hole. I’ve been known to be wrong – and quite a lot – but my experience is telling me to take Mahomes and the Chiefs as a dog over and over and over. You’ll find more about how I expect the game to play out in my prop bets below.
Yank: I can’t help but agree with Sam that the Chiefs are on a heater. Through a combination of great game plans, grit, and some good breaks, arguably the least talented KC team in a while finds themselves in another Super Bowl. On the other side this Niners team spent all year rolling teams, but has looked exceptionally vulnerable the last two weeks. I’m particularly worried about the Niners defense which was taken to the woodshed in two straight first halves by the Packers and Lions aka two teams without Patrick Mahomes at QB. This just in, the Chiefs do in fact have Patrick Mahomes. The Niners are going to need to either find a way to stop the run and rush the passer better than they have the last two games (unlikely!) or Brock Purdy is going to need to have a monster game in his first ever Super Bowl. I’ll take my chances in Vegas with a proven winner and multiple time Super Bowl MVP who is 9-1 straight up as an underdog for his career.
Sam’s Pick: $15.75 on the Chiefs+2.5 (-105)
Yanks Pick: $12.20 on the Chiefs+3 (-122)
Crap-a-palooza
The Pass Line (aka the bets you should play, with better odds than the casino wants to admit)
Sam’s Bet: $3.00 on Pacheco 25+ rush yards in each half (+120)
Sam:I don’t know what to tell you folks. Pacheco is getting the ball left, right and down the middle in this one. Unless the 49ers suddenly figured out how to stop the run – which they didn’t – this feels like easy money.
Yank’s Bet: $11.20 Pacheco O66.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Yank: The Chiefs have been a different team since they started to commit to the run. The Niners were a bottom half of the league team in success rate against the run BEFORE getting gashed by Green Bay and Detroit on the ground. As Sam notes, Andy Reid knows what to do here.
Sam’s Bet: $2.00 on Chris Jones to record a sack (+132)
Sam: Betting someone to get a sack is never a guaranteed play, but Chris Jones is a playmaker. He has an easier matchup going up against the 49ers interior as opposed to Karloftis facing Trent Williams every snap. Give me Christ Jones to get a sack as the 4th best odds when he could easily be defensive MVP of this game.
Sam’s Bet: $5.00 on Kelce ATD (+100)
Sam: I’ve certainly learned my lesson that anytime TDs are never a sure thing, so I’m not sure this bet qualifies to be in this section. Nevertheless, do we really think the NFL is going to let us not get a shot of Taylor Swift celebrating another Travis Kelce touchdown? If we know anything, it’s that the NFL will have their grimey little hands on the outcome of this one, so keep your eye on a defensive holding or something in the redzone to give Kelce an extra chance at hauling one in. We may only have one more game to see it!
Yank’s Bet: $59.00 on Opening Kickoff to be a touchback (-295)
Yank: Offensive coaches want the first kick to be a touchback. They want to know the starting yard line and start calling plays. We have two offensive coaches in this ballgame. If the Chiefs are kicking this bet is a 100% lock, Harrison Butker has a cannon for a leg. Even if San Francisco is kicking, the Chiefs don’t exactly have Devin Hester to take it out. This should be closer to -1000.
Yank’s Bet: $14.50 on Shortest TD U1.5 yards (-145)
Yank: Another bet that hits way more often than you’d think, all it takes is one PI in the end zone and this is a winner. It may be a winner anyway, tackles on the one are fairly common. Happy to take this bet at these odds.
Don’t Pass Bets (aka bets explicitly against the public)
Sam’s Bet: $7.70 on Mahomes under 262.5 (-110)
Sam: I’m not sure where the public will land on this one exactly, but overs are typically the public bet, and who doesn’t want to see Mahomes sling it all over the yard? But unless the Chiefs come out with an entirely different script – which is entirely possible – Mahomes is throwing deep less and relying on the ground and pound game to get the job done. He knows his receiving weapons are unreliable and they have to pick and choose when they bring Kelce out of the garage. I’m calling this one a near lock for me.
Yank’s Bets: $11.00 each on receiving yards: Kelce U72.5, Samuel U58.5, Kittle U49.5, Aiyuk U62.5, Rice U68.5
Yank: So many people are going to bet on this game and people love offense particularly passing offense. These receiving yard numbers should be nice and inflated at this point. Sam and I have already pointed out we think the offenses will have a heavy dose of the ground game in this one, I also think both QBs scramble under pressure a fair bit. This will limit passing and receiving yards. It’s not fun to root for unders but that is kind of the point in taking all of these. The play here is that the majority of these big name pass catchers aren’t going to be coming through for the average bettor’s same game parlays.
Playing The Field (aka taking some chances on longer odds)
Sam’s Bet: $1.00 on Kittle most receiving yards of game (+650)
Sam: Kittle is obviously a big-name, but of the big names in this game, I don’t see how his odds should be lower than the Deebo’s and Rice’s of the game. Kittle could easily have a big game as the KC corners take care of the receivers on the outside. Add in that he could be a checkdown favorite of Purdy’s in a nerve-wracking game, I’ll take him at +650 to have the most receiving yards in the game.
Sam’s Bet: $2.00 on Pacheco 2+ TDs (+500)
Sam: I’m loading up on Pacheco in this game. Even if he doesn’t hit the 25+ yards each half bet, you know he’s going to be featured near the goal line.
Hardway Bets (aka some longshots that are fun to take a flier on to close it out)
Sam’s Bet: $2.00 on Noah Gray ATD (+950)
Sam: Now that we’re in the Hardway bets category, we’re letting them rip. I feel like Andy Reid always has some type of crazy, Philly Special type play in his back pocket. Noah Gray feels like a perfect candidate to be the recipient of some play where the Chiefs confuse the 49ers with who is eligible on the LOS.
Sam’s Bet: $1.00 on MVS to have a 50+ yard catch (+1600)
Sam: We are feeling HOT. If there were odds for MVS to drop a 50+yard catch, it would probably be minus odds, so there’s a lot of risk inherent in this one. But this is this guys one job. He plays in the NFL because he’s tall and fast. He will likely have only one deep shot in this game, and he better bring it in.
Sam’s Bet: $1.00 on L’Jarius Sneed to record 1st int of the game (+1000)
Sam: L’Jarius Sneed walking away with a Brock Purdy interception at some point in this game feels pretty likely. I’m juicing the odds by making it the 1st interception of the game.
Sam’s Bet: $1.00 on Chiefs 0 – 49ers 0 after 1st Q (+850)
Sam: If you haven’t caught on by now, I’m expecting this to be a ground and pound, low scoring, defensive battle. Both teams are coming off of a break in action that can throw some teams off. I’m placing my chips on the idea that they both come out a bit slow and whether we get a missed field goal or a long drive at the end of the quarter, I’m taking a flier on there being 0 points in the 1st quarter. And hey, if I’m wrong about this bet and how the game will go, we should at least be in for a high-scoring, fast-paced thriller!
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 