Intro by Yank
Week one can be unpredictable. Between the lack of preseason games, the new schemes and players, and now the crazy NFL hullabaloo spread across 5 days and multiple continents, the results can be all over the board. We did a decent job under those circumstances last week, but now we’re excited to go against something that is predictable: overreactions. Week one provides a data point, and in many cases a bad one. Hopefully, we can use that to our advantage here in week two.
Week 1 Picks
The Collaboration:
Dogs of the Week
The Indianapolis Colts-2.5 @ the Green Bay Packers
Sam: This is our DiNucci’s Law pick of the week, a throwback pick for our 5 long-term readers. Essentially, the play here is that when a backup comes in, no one expects them to win or cover, and they often do. This is a perfect matchup to run the principle back. The infrastructure in Green Bay is good and the home crowd will help carry them over the top.
Yank: Matt LaFleur is a really good coach with a great record straight up and against the spread in his career. He is the best possible play-caller for a backup QB. The Packers offense is full of talent and the game is in Lambeau Field. The bet here is that the Packers do just enough to cover.
Yank’s Pick: $8.12 on the Packers+3 (-109)
Sam’s Pick: $6.00 on the Packers+3 (-110)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ the Detroit Lions-7.5
Yank: The Lions are a tough team and they pulled out a gritty win in Week 1 but people have forgotten a little bit about the Bucs who really came together at the end of last year and appeared to carry that momentum into this season dispatching the Commies last week. The Lions struggled a bit at home with the less-talented Rams roster last week. I think Tampa Bay has a decent shot to win this game outright so I’m definitely comfortable taking the points here.
Sam: I expected the Bucs to be slow in Week 1 due to brain drain, but throwing it up to Mike Evans is a pretty good offensive strategy. While I’m a little wary that they looked too good in Week 1, I think this game has the makings of a shoot out and that’ll be a recipe for a last-second field goal/final score to keep the game within 7.
Yank’s Pick: $8.25 on the Bucs+7.5 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Bucs+7.5 (-108)
The Los Angeles Chargers-5 @ the Carolina Panthers
Sam: Sam, back at it again with the Panthers. If the Panthers fail to cover again, I’ll likely never bet on the Panthers again for the rest of my life. Nevertheless, I wasn’t convinced by the Chargers win against the Raiders, and I’m expecting the Panthers to be motivated by their abysmal performance in Week 1.
Yank: This is a pure principles bet. Teams that get wrecked like Carolina did in Week 1 cover like 60+% of the time in Week 2. The bet here is that pendulum swing back against the overreaction applies here, even though Carolina was abhorrent last week and all of last season.
Yank’s Pick: $8.25 on the Panthers+5.5 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Panthers+5.5 (-112)
The Cincinnati Bengals @ the Kansas Chiefs-6
Yank: Another overreaction bet here: the Chiefs looked great last Thursday and the Bengals looked terrible last Sunday. The worry is that the Bengals are always bad in September. The possible upside is that the Bengals are so talented and 6 is A LOT of points for the Chiefs, who are great at pulling out Ws, but generally haven’t been blowing teams out.
Sam: Oooo man do I worry about this bet. The Bengals showed us very little that makes you think they should compete with the likes of the Chiefs. That being said, they should have had a few more scores if it weren’t for bad turnover breaks. If they can keep those down and sharpen the offensive execution a little more, they can bring the fight to Kansas City like they have the last few seasons.
Yank’s Pick: $8.25 on the Bengals+6 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $8.00 on the Bengals+6.5 (-115)
Tease of the Week
The Los Angeles Rams @ the Arizona Cardinals EVEN
The Cleveland Browns @ the Jacksonville Jaguars-3
Sam: It’s good ole’ fashion teaser time. I think the Rams could win this by more than 10, but I’m also concerned by the injuries at OL. If they win, I’ll have left some money on the table, but I prefer being a little safe. When it comes to Browns @ Jags, we have ourselves a poop sandwich. I have been out on Jacksonville during the Pederson-Lawrence era, and Week 1 didn’t do anything to change my mind. The Browns absolutely stink, but on the other hand, they went up against one of the best regular season teams (and defenses in particular). I won’t be at all surprised if the Browns don’t cover a 9-point spread, but these two teams may not be as far apart as they first seem.
Yank: I’m going to bet a “tease of the week” every week, just because it’s fun. Sam’s done a great job describing this week’s already. Moving the Rams to plus a TD in what should be a tightly contested division game feels pretty safe. Betting on Cleveland feels decidedly unsafe, but I think the Jags are getting a lot of shine for almost winning last week. The team they almost beat just got wrecked on Thursday. I think they may stink, so Cleveland should be able to stay within double digits.
Yank’s Pick: $13.00 on a teaser Rams+7 and Browns+9 (-130)
Sam’s Pick: $15.00 on a Rams+7 and Browns+9 Teaser (-120)
Moneyline Parlay of the Week
The New York Jets-3.5 @ the Tennessee Titans
The New Orleans Saints @ the Dallas Cowboys-6.5
Yank: Pretty simple here for me: number one I want to go against Tennessee as much as possible, Will Levis proved why last week. Number two, the Saints are due for a letdown after the beatdown they put on Carolina last week but I do not trust Dallas to cover a full TD. Let’s throw them together to get better odds.
Sam: Cowboys, Cowboys, Cowboys. I’m expecting the Cowboys to make a lot of money for me this season, especially early. As I said last week, the public narrative is out on the Cowboys for not doing much in the offseason, but they essentially brought back a 13-win team and upgraded at defensive coordinator. We’ll see if Zimmer’s scheme can last, but I’m sure it’ll catch people off guard to start the season. Meanwhile, for the Jets, I’m expecting them to bounce back a little against a lackluster Titans team. Levis is the perfect QB to get trashed by the Jets defense, even if they didn’t look so good against the 49ers.
Yank’s Pick: $10.00 on a Cowboys and Jets ML parlay (+108)
Sam’s Pick: $15.00 on a Cowboys and Jets ML parlay (+110)
The Confrontation:
The Chicago Bears @ the Houston Texans-6.5
Sam: Yank managed to talk me into talking myself into the taking the Bears. I don’t know what to think about Caleb Williams yet, and obviously, his performance in Week 1 was pretty abysmal, but I’ve maintained that the Bears defense drastically improved last season with the arrival of Montez Sweat. With the Texans being everyone’s sweetheart this offseason, I think the Bears defense will shock people a bit and make this game a little more interesting than it looks on the surface. While I won’t be one bit surprised if they do get their doors blown off, I’m happy to take a risk here to keep the Confrontation alive this week.
Yank: Keeping this bit alive cost me money last week but I can’t help it I love to compete with Sam, especially after his Vikings wrecked my Gmen. I had money on the Bears last week and I watched a lot of the game so I have to admit they stink. They got incredibly lucky to win and cover against a horrible Titans team. I think any shine the Bears got from their win last week was fool’s gold. They are much more likely to repeat looking lackluster on offense and mediocre on defense than they are to block another punt and get a pick-six. Houston should be poised to take advantage.
Yank’s Pick: $5.25 on the Texans-6.5 (-105)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Bears+6.5 (-110) and $3.00 on the Bears ML (+235)
The Isolation:
No Isolation picks this week
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 