Intro by Sam
Last week was a bit of a mixed bag. Thankfully we decided to jump on board with the dogs of the week at the last minute or the damage would’ve been worse. I’m not a fan of parlays and teases after last week, but as a trooper, I will stick with it and adjust how I allocate my resources
Week 3 Picks
The Collaboration:
0-2 Underdog 4 Pack
The Denver Broncos @ the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-6
The New York Giants @ the Cleveland Browns-6.5
The Carolina Panthers @ the Las Vegas Raiders-6
The San Francisco 49ers-6 @ the Los Angeles Rams
Yank: Historically 0-2 teams that enter the week as underdogs cover at a 60% clip. Essentially people think these teams stink, and they’re probably right! But they probably stink slightly less than people think, so there should be good value on these lines. We’re going to hold our nose and play the odds here.
Sam: Yank lays out the reason for this strategy fairly clearly, and there’s not a whole else to these bets other than simple math. And yes, I’m well aware I said I’d never bet on the Panthers again, but what’s a bad gambler supposed to do? Not bet the Panthers every week and lose all of my money? I don’t think so.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 (to win) on Broncos+6.5 (-110), Giants+6.5 (-102), Panthers+6 (-110), Rams+6.5 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 each on the Broncos+6.5 (-115), Giants+6.5 (-102), Panthers+6 (-112), Rams+6.5 (-112)
Moneyline Parlay of the Week
The Green Bay Packers @ the Tennessee Titans -3
The Detroit Lions-3 @ the Arizona Cardinals
Sam: It’s possible that we will bet against the Titans as long as Will Levis is their QB. I’m a little worried about the Titans defense being able to stuff the run and get Willis off script, but as we did last week, I will trust in LaFleur. Meanwhile, I think the Lions performance last week was a bit fluky. They got out of character by having Goff attempt 55 passes. I expect to see them running the ball a lot more, and I’m not sure the Cardinals defense is up to the task.
Yank: As Sam lays out this is a bet against the Titans. Both these teams likely have bad QBs starting. One coach has proven consistently he can overcome a bad QB with scheme. The other has been yelling “what the F are you doing” each week. We’re adding in the Lions, who I don’t expect to drop two in a row, given their overall talent. It doesn’t hurt that it’s a letdown spot for Arizona after a blowout W last week.
Yank’s Pick: $10.00 on a Packers and Lions ML Parlay (+289)
Sam’s Pick: $8.00 on a Packers and Lions ML Parlay (+280)
Tease of the Week
The Houston Texans-1.5 @ the Minnesota Vikings
The Miami Dolphins @ the Seattle Seahawks-4.5
Yank: This is a pure value play. The six-point teaser gets the Vikings over a TD and the Dolphins over ten points. Both of these games are likely to be close. Let’s hope Mike McDaniel has a little of that Matt LaFleur magic in him!
Sam: Skol! I am actually excited about this team for the first time in a while. Could the Darnold rug be pulled out from underneath at any moment? Sure, but I think KOC is dialed in and Brian Flores sure is. The high-flying Texans offense hasn’t been incredible to start the season, and while dangerous, I think the Vikings defense can slow him down enough to give Darnold and Aaron Jones enough opportunities to get the edge. Meanwhile, we’re backing the Dolphins as a semi-DiNucci’s law pick. Skylar Thompson is more of a known product than the law would require, but I believe in McDaniels to find some easy plays for him to get the ball to their playmakers. Additionally, how sold are we on the Seahawks? I’m still a bit skeptical, so we’ll see what happens.
Yank’s Pick: $11.00 on 6-point Vikings+7.5 and Dolphins+10.5 Teaser (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $8.00 on a 6-point Vikings+7.5 and Dolphins+10.5 Teaser (-120) and $3.00 on the Vikings ML (+108)
The No Points Bowl
The Los Angeles Chargers @ the Pittsburgh Steelers-2.5
The Chicago Bears @ the Indianapolis Colts-1
Sam: Do we need to provide that much context to these picks? The Steelers have scored one touchdown on the season and have a stout defense. The Chargers run the ball so much that the clock stays ticking. While the Bears and Colts might have the two worst offenses in football. My only worry about these picks is that it seems almost too easy.
Yank: Chargers Steelers may feature 80 running plays given the Head Coaches involved particularly with a hurt Justin Herbert. Meanwhile, Sam proved to me last week the Bears defense is solid, while Chicago’s offense also continues to be unremarkable. Seems like the recipe for two unders.
Yank’s Pick: $11.22 on the Colts/Bears U43.5 (-112) and $11.00 on the Steelers/Chargers U36 (-114)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 each on the Colts/Bears U44 (-115) and Chargers/Steelers U35.5 (-115)
The Confrontation:
The Baltimore Ravens-1 @ the Dallas Cowboys
Sam: This has all the makings to be the best game of the afternoon slate, so naturally we made it the Collaboration. I think the Cowboys performance last week was more of a fluke than who they are, while as much as I hate to say it, I think the Ravens might be pretenders. The offensive line is in rough shape and until they figure out the right Henry-Lamar balance, I think they will continue to struggle.
Yank: I’ll admit it I hate the Cowboys, but I think they stink. Betting with your heart is not generally a good idea but I don’t care. Mike McCarthy sucks! The Ravens have to have this game to prevent falling to 0-3. Give me Baltimore!
Yank’s Pick: $5.50 on the Ravens-1 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Cowboys+1 (-110)
The Isolation:
The Philadelphia Eagles @ the New Orleans Saints-2.5
Sam: The Vikings and Saints make me nervous as two unexpected 2-0 teams. With their strong run game and play-action pass attack, I think the Saints have the recipe to beat this Eagles team. They’ve created the first signs of hope in Nola in quite some time and this is the first home game for them this season. I’m expecting the crowd to be raucous and propel them to 3 straight victories to start the season.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Saints-2.5 (-118)
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 