Intro by Yank
Take a look at the chart down below. Pretend Sam and I are pitchers in the middle of a no-hitter. Don’t talk to us, don’t even look at us. Look at the chart again. Keep scrolling if that has you interested in this week’s picks.
Week 4 Picks
The Collaboration:
The Los Angeles Rams @ the Chicago Bears-3
Yank: This is simply a “wrong team favored” game. Even if these teams are roughly equal in overall talent the QB and HC gap is exceptionally wide. Getting the Rams and a field goal against this Chicago team who might be awful feels like a must-bet.
Sam: McVay. That’s the main point here. As a Vikings fan, I would be happy for Eberflus to get tenure. He stinks. While the Rams do have a bunch of injury concerns, I believe Stafford and McVay to do enough to get the win.
Yank’s Pick: $11.00 on the Rams+3 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Rams ML (+142)
The Denver Broncos @ the New York Jets-8
Sam: This pick is a little concerning. The Broncos are stock way up after looking competent last week against the Bucs, meanwhile, the Jets might be slowly coming together. That being said, I think the Broncos are a better team than you would think at this stage and I’m not sold on the Jets. They seem good, but not great. Hence, I’m not taking them to beat a team by more than a touchdown at this point.
Yank: I have reservations about this one as well, but sometimes that can be a good thing. Congrats to the Jets for slaying the hapless Pats, this game could turn out similarly. The bet here is that Payton has a few tricks up his sleeve that Wobbly Bob Saleh can’t even imagine. This could pretty easily end like 20–16 Jets, no?
Yank’s Pick: $11.00 on the Broncos+8 (-105)
Sam’s Pick: $6.00 on the Broncos+7.5 (-105) and $5.00 on the Broncos ML (+340)
The New Orleans Saints @ the Atlanta Falcons-2.5
Yank: Weird division game. Difficult to know what to fully make of these two teams. Chaos is very likely. Take the moneyline of the team that is plus money.
Sam: I don’t think the Saints are the juggernaut they looked like in weeks 1 and 2, but I also don’t think they’re as bad as they looked against the Eagles last week. I think they get back on schedule a little better this week and take care of a Kirk Cousins-led football team that loves to keep games close and make bad decisions down the stretch.
Yank’s Pick: $10.00 on the Saints ML (+128)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Saints ML (+124)
The Pittsburgh Steelers-2.5 @ the Indianapolis Colts
Sam: This is the obvious public bet of the week, but I really like this Steelers team. The defense is great as always and they’ve found a way to be competent on offense, which isn’t something we’ve seen from the Steelers in years. The Colts, on the other hand, stink. Anthony Richardson is a fine prospect, but going up against this defense will be a tall order. I expect him to struggle.
Yank: This is definitely a “seems too obvious“ matchup. I don’t love the Steelers as favorites when everyone thinks they’re good, they often put up a stinker. However, the defense is really good. If this game goes haywire who knows what will happen but if it’s very low scoring I expect a Steelers W.
Yank’s Pick: $10.00 on a parlay Steelers ML and Game U46.5 (+138)
Sam’s Pick: $6.00 on the Steelers-2.5 (-114)
Moneylin Parlay of the Week
The Cincinnati Bengals-4.5 @ the Carolina Panthers
The Washington Commanders @ the Arizona Cardinals-3.5
Sam: I was a pre-season believer in the Panthers because I thought Bryce Young would be able to do exactly what Andy Dalton is doing now. Are they great? No, but they’re not horrible. Meanwhile, I think the Bengals will officially fall off the tracks. In the other matchup, we believe in the Cardinals to take advantage of a weak defense. The Commanders looked fun last week, but consider their stock to be a little too high right now.
Yank: Andy Dalton revenge game! To Sam’s point above the Panthers with Dalton at the controls may just be totally fine? Meanwhile, the Bengals may be straight-up bad. I’m a little scared of Joe Burrow’s new hair, but not enough to resist firing at almost 4-1 on this parlay. On the other side of last week’s crazy MNF game, the Commanders are getting a lot of hype. If the Bengals really stink, the Commies shouldn’t get much credit for beating them. I’m happy to ride with Arizona who’s been one of the more impressive teams so far with a really tough schedule. WR1s have been having a field day against their terrible corners so we’re adding a MHJ prop as well.
Yank’s Pick: $10.00 on a Panthers/Cardinals ML Parlay (+389) and $10.50 on MHJ O70.5 receiving yards (-105)
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on a Panthers/Cardinals ML Parlay (+363) and $8.00 on MHJ O 74.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Tease Killer of the Week
Jacksonville Jaguars @ the Houston Texans
Yank: We’re happy to bring you back one of our favorite bits-the tease killer. This week we have the Houston Texans, who everyone loves because of their coach and QB, hosting the hapless Jags who just got killed on MNF. Everybody and their brother is happy to throw Houston in a teaser because there’s no chance they could possibly lose, right? RIGHT?! Division games are weird and Houston’s biggest weakness (OL) is a bad matchup for Jacksonville (good pass rushers).
Sam: I am certainly not eager to put real dollar bills on the Jaguars at this point. I was off them the last few years when the analytics community was high on them, and I’m still off of them. They got a bad stink to them. But that is the kind of bet we look for in the TKOW. Yank lays it out above, but football at the end of the day has key moments of randomness and that’s what we’re looking for today.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Jags ML (+210)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Jags ML (+200)
The Confrontation:
The Minnesota Vikings @ the Green Bay Packers-3
Sam: It’s Vikings-Packers week! I’ve not been this excited about a Vikings time in quite some time. Obviously, I’m a little nervous heading into a head-to-head with a division rival, but I expect some sparks to fly off of Packers’ helmets as Aaron Jones finds the endzone repeatedly in his revenge game spot. On the defensive front for the Vikings, I am curious to see what our run defense looks like. The 49ers ran the ball well but got down early and felt that they needed to pass to stay in the game. If the Packers are able to get out to a lead or stay connected on the scoreboard, it will be a good test to see how Flores’ unit can do against the run.
Yank: The Vikings head into their annual house of horrors Lambeau Field riding high. Unfortunately for Vikings backers they’ve seen this movie before, many, many times. If the Vikings play a clean game, particularly if Malik Willis starts this could be a long day for the Pack. Seems like a big IF to me.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Packers-3 (EVEN)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Vikings+3 (EVEN)
The Isolation:
No Isolation picks this week.
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 