Intro by Sam
Last week was a good opportunity to reflect on our strategies. We leaned heavily into underdog moneylines and came up short, but for almost every moneyline we bet the spread would have covered. Obviously, the odds are more alluring to bet the ML, but the safer play may be to back some of that up with spread picks as well. We test that theory this week, check out the picks.
Week 5 Picks
The Collaboration:
The New York Jets @ the Minnesota Vikings-2.5 (London)
Sam: Vikings offense > Jets defense. Vikings defense > Jets offense. We normally like to stay away from London Games, but I’ll be up watching it, so might as well have some stake in it.
Yank: I have an aversion to betting on the London games because they are always weird. In this case, we think defense travels better than offense. The weirdest outcome here would be a Jets win, which would have to be low-scoring, but a Vikings blowout likely also goes under.
Yank’s Pick: $11.00 on U41 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on a Vikings-2.5 and U40.5 Parlay (+248)
The Cleveland Browns @ the Washington Commanders-3.5
Sam: I know the Commanders have had a fantastic start to the year, and Daniels looks legit. That being said, rookie QBs often struggle against good defenses. I’m banking on them running into a bit of a buzzsaw with this defense. That being said, the Browns offense will need to get the job done or this bet is in trouble.
Yank: The Commanders hype train is just going way too fast at this point. This team should have lost to my awful Gmen mere weeks ago. Cleveland still has a solid defense if little else. This figures to be a weird game with a weird result.
Yank’s Pick: $5.50 on the Browns+3.5(-110) and $5.00 on the Browns ML (+140)
Sam’s Pick: $8.00 on the Browns+3 (+100) and $4.00 on the Browns ML (+140)
The Carolina Panthers @ the Chicago Bears-4
Yank: I hate to say it but I like the Andy Dalton Panthers. They have been the definition of just fine. Meanwhile, I continue to believe this Bears team stinks. Four points feels like way too many for a game Carolina has a shot to win.
Sam: I went from swearing off the Panthers for the rest of time to betting them 5 weeks in a row. I’m not sure why they’re my team of destiny other than I don’t think they’re as bad as everyone else thinks they are. Meanwhile, I think the Bears are worse than everyone thinks.
Yank’s Pick: $5.50 on the panthers+4 (-110) and $5.00 on the Panthers ML (+165)
Sam’s Pick: $8.00 on the Panthers+4 (-110)
Moneyline Parlays of the Week
The Indianapolis Colts @ the Jacksonville Jaguars-3
The Baltimore Ravens-2.5 @ the Cincinnati Bengals
Yank: Simple one here folks! The Jags and Bengals have been really bad. Going against the Jags as they blow leads over and over again feels like a good side to be on irrespective of their opponent. On the other side, Lamar Jackson should be poised to take advantage of the Cincy defense, which has been in shambles all year.
Sam: Didn’t we see Flacco lead a Browns team into the playoffs last year? Sure he got dismantled by the Texans defense, but the Jags aren’t all that. I like a competent QB who knows how to play on schedule to raise the ceiling of the Colts offense ever so slightly. Meanwhile, in Cincinnati I expect the Ravens to pick up where they left off against the Bills. Total domination. Yes, it’s a bit of a house of horrors, but in honor of our soon-to-be official brother-in-law Tevin who is a huge Ravens fan and is having his bachelor party there, we thought the good vibes almost certainly have to carry over.
Yank’s Pick: $10.00 on a Colts/Ravens ML parlay (+300)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on a Colts/Ravens ML parlay (+310)
The Green Bay Packers-3 @ the Los Angeles Rams
The Dallas Cowboys @ the Pittsburgh Steelers-2.5
Yank: Not a lot of deep analysis necessary here. The Steelers are a better team than Dallas and Mike Tomlin is a better coach than Mike McCarthy. In the other game, Matt LaFleur is one of the best offensive minds in the league and the Rams have one of the worst defenses by every statistic. We expect both favorites to hold serve.
Sam: The Packers will be motivated to get back in the win column and will be playing in an environment that is essentially a home game. The Packers should take care of business against a banged-up Rams team. In the other matchup, the Steelers will run the ball down the throats of a bad Cowboys defense and get the home win.
Yank’s Pick: $10.00 on a Packers/Steelers ML parlay (+168)
Sam’s Pick: $10.00 on a Packers/Steelers ML parlay (+171)
The Confrontation:
The Buffalo Bills @ the Houston Texans-1
Sam: I think this is a bounce-back spot for the Bills. Are they the juggernaut that we thought they were? No. But they’ve shown the ability to go up big, and the Texans haven’t impressed. Were we too quick to name Stroud the best QB in the NFL? Possibly. Bills get back on the winning side and the Texans who struggled to beat the Jags continue to show they’re flawed.
Yank: Everyone is out on the Texans after Minnesota dismantled them, but I’m not sure we are scrutinizing the Bills enough. Both of these teams are flawed enough I wouldn’t be surprised to see Houston bounce back in this spot.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Texans-1
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Bills+1
The Isolation:
There are no Isolation picks this week.
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 