Intro by Yank
It’s October and a chill is finally in the air. Unfortunately, a chill has hit your favorite blog boys as well. The last couple of weeks have not been our best efforts, but rest assured we are hard at work in the lab to bring you some winners this week. Sprinkle a couple dashes of pumpkin spice on these picks and help us all start to heat up.
Week 6 Picks
The Collaboration:
The Pittsburgh Steelers-3 @ the Las Vegas Raiders
Sam: For those of you who listen to the Bill Simmons Podcast every Sunday with Cousin Sal, this is straight out of Cousin Sal’s playbook. The Steelers are notorious for getting the job done, but it’s not pretty. If you bet them to lose the first half and parlay that with them winning the game, you get pretty nice odds. Seeing as that’s basically the Mike Tomlin formula for victory, we’re giving it a try this week.
Yank: I think the Steelers are fairly likely to win this game, the Raiders are one of the worst teams in the league. That said, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them come out hot with a new QB bump in the first half, especially at home. Like Sam said this is the Tomlin formula, and at 6-1 odds we are giving it a spin.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on Raiders 1H (3 Way) and Steelers ML Parlay (+665)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on Raiders 1H (3 Way) and Steelers ML Parlay (+625)
Road Faves after a bye
The Los Angeles Chargers-3 @ the Denver Broncos
Yank: Road teams coming off a bye who are favored traditionally cover at a 60% clip. Add in the fact that this Denver team is masquerading as average, when really they are bad and this game is ripe with opportunity. The Harbaugh Chargers don’t do anything spectacularly, but they are solid in every phase. This game feels like it will be boring but end with a Chargers victory.
Sam: I have to admit, the Broncos defense has been actually good this year. Let’s see how good they are going up against a smashmouth football team that likes to establish the run. The Chargers have some big guys up front so I won’t be shocked if they can take advantage and churn out the clock. I expect this game to play out similarly to the Chargers-Steelers game earlier this season, but the Chargers will have that experience in their back pocket.
Yank’s Pick: $15.00 on the Chargers-2.5 (-122)
Sam’s Pick: $6.00 on the Chargers-3 (-104)
The Detroit Lions-3 @ the Dallas Cowboys
Sam: As Yank laid out above, this is another road favorite coming off of a bye. Pair them up against a Dallas-run defense that can’t stop a nosebleed and you are looking at a beatdown. Remember when the Saints dominated the Cowboys defense? Well, the Saints stole the Lions playbook, and I don’t think Dallas has the players to make meaningful adjustments to stop it.
Yank: Sam has it covered, the Cowboys run defense STINKS. The Lions have the best offensive line in the league and they just had a week to get healthy. This one could get ugly.
Yank’s Pick: $15.00 on the Lions-3 (-115)
Sam’s Pick: $20.00 on the Lions-3 (-115)
Tease Killer(s) of the Week
The Houston Texans-6.5 @ the New England Patriots
The Washington Commanders @ the Baltimore Ravens-7
The Arizona Cardinals @ the Green Bay Packers-5.5
Sam: We are officially bringing back our favorite OLL bit – and we’re coming in HOT. Every week we- and millions of others – lose teasers because it feels like a no-brainer that a 6-7 point favorite can’t possibly lose. And yet, it happens every week. This year the TKOW has been even more prominent. Hence, we’re picking almost all of the ~6-point underdogs to win straight up, and for security, to cover the spread. We debated trying something silly and doing a 10-point tease on the three underdogs, but the likelihood does seem high that at least one of the underdogs will get blown out, running our safety net. With the setup, we are in pretty decent shape to capitalize if we get 2 and stay neutral if we only get 1.
Yank: I’ve got all my eggs in one basket here: the New England Patriots. They satisfy two criteria for me. Number one: absolutely nobody expects them to win. Number two: Drake Maye coming in to start is very similar to the DiNuccis law situation we like on this blog. A new QB the opponent doesn’t know how to prepare for always adds chaos. To all of you who have Houson in teases, ML parlays, or an eliminator pool: you’ve been warned. Separately I also think the Ravens are just favored by too many points against Washington. Let’s jump on the Jayden Daniels hype train.
Yank’s Pick: $8.00 on the Patriots+7(-115), $4.00 on the Patriots ML(+245) and $10.50 on the Commies+7(-105)
Sam’s Pick: $8.00 each on the Commanders+7 (-112), Patriots+6.5 (-105), and Cardinals+5.5 (-110), and $4.00 each on the Commanders ML (+260), Patriots ML (+245), and Cardinals ML (+205)
Tease of the Week
The Indianapolis Colts @ the Tennessee Titans-3
The Arizona Cardinals @ the Green Bay Packers-5.5
Yank: What goes up must come down, or something right? If teasing favorites down is a losing strategy let’s try teasing some underdogs up! Arizona is the team that makes me nervous here, they could absolutely get blown out in Lambeau. That said the Packers defense kinda stinks and the Cards have been feisty all year. Covering 11.5 feels doable. On the other side, I will bet against Tennessee somehow every week if I can. The Colts are tough to back given their overall incompetence and injuries but can they keep it relatively close for us in a division game?
Sam: We are going to keep trying with these Teases until we get one to work. We’ve already identified the Cardinals as a team we like to surprise some folks in Green Bay, and we’ve shown we are competent at losing money on the Colts. While it hasn’t worked out well for us yet, I like a division game to be close and these are two mediocre teams going head-to-head. We need the Colts to get a little lucky here and there and for Kyler to do his thing.
Yank’s Pick: $10.00 on a 6-point Colts+9 and Cardinals+11.5 Teaser (-125)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on a 6-point Colts+9 and Cardinals+11.5 Teaser (-120)
The Confrontation:
The Cleveland Browns @ the Philadelphia Eagles-8.5
Sam: Why am I betting on the Browns again? What can I say? I like losing money. In all seriousness, I haven’t been excited about anything the Eagles have done this season and I’m not sure that they can win by 9 points. Yes, they don’t need to do much against this Browns offense to hold them out of the endzone, but the Browns defense is no slouch. My hope is this is the game where Watson gets benched and Jameis does enough to win me another Confrontation against Yank.
Yank: I will bet against the Browns every week until Deshaun Watson is benched. If I can throw a little of my gambling stink on the Eagles, who I hate, even better.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Eagles-8.5
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Browns+8.5
The Isolation:
There are no Isolation picks this week.
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 