Intro by Sam
Since I’m not hungover from a great wedding, you’ll get this post at a regular time today. What a week for the record books, huh? In our second week of playing it, the Cousin Sal special comes through for us. Add in Yank throwing a no-hitter, and he almost doubled his remaining sum of money. These are the weeks you live for, so let’s see if we can keep the magic going.
Week 8 Picks
The Collaboration:
The Chicago Bears -1.5 @ the Washington Commanders
Yank: I have been here on this very blog urging you to bet against the Bears, particularly against good teams. Well, guess what folks all those bets lost. The Bears, like it or not, have been decidedly above average. Additionally, they are a road team coming off a bye, which is close to an auto-bet scenario for Sam and me. The bet here is that Caleb Williams finds some extra motivation coming home to the DC area against a bad defense.
Sam: My main reason for playing this bet is the aforementioned road team coming off a bye. I feel like its a coin toss whether Mariota can fill Jayden Daniels cleats this week, but what I will say, as I’ve been saying all year, is this Bears defense is good. They are talented at every level. I don’t know that this will be a week where Caleb shines, but I do know the Bears defense will show.
Yank’s Pick: $11.00 on the Bears-2.5 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Bears-1.5 (-110)
The Green Bay Packers-4 @ the Jacksonville Jaguars
Sam: I might bet on the Packers so that I can emotionally hedge my bets. Unfortunately for me, the Packers are locked into a good HC for a while. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have a coach that seems to have no idea what he is doing in Doug Pederson. The coaching matchup is decidedly in Green Bay’s favor, as is about every positional matchup too.
Yank: The Jags stink and I may go against them every week from here on out. Beyond that, they just spent the last two weeks in London and got no bye or additional rest ahead of this game. That would be a difficult scenario for a good team, which they decidedly are not. The Packers should roll here.
Yank’s Pick: $11.50 on the Packers-3.5 (-115)
Sam’s Pick: $10.00 on the Packers-3.5 (-115)
The Tennessee Titans @ the Detroit Lions-11.5
Yank: Put the Titans on the list with the Jags of terrible teams I am willing to bet against week in and week out. On the other side the Lions are arguably the most bankable high effort, super physical team in the league. Tennessee is not ready for it.
Sam: The only thing that makes me nervous about this game, is those two guys in the middle for Tennessee. Simmons and Sweat. If they can stop the Lions ground game, this line could get interesting, but not the game, to be clear. If thats not the case, this game is easily has the highest, “oh yeah that bet has already won,” odds of any game this weekend.
Yank’s Pick: $11.00 on the Lions-11.5 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $10.00 on the Lions-11.5 (-110)
The Baltimore Ravens-8 @ the Cleveland Browns
Sam: Browns fans have been begging all season for a change at the QB position. And can you blame them? Watson and the Browns had a hard enough time getting a first down, let alone a touchdown. Put even a mediocre QB in at the helm and the Browns might stand a chance. It’s been hard to notice, but the Browns defense has been very good, and they should have a little more edge to them this week knowing that the offense might even give them a chance. We haven’t seen much tape on Winston as a Brown, so expect the Ravens to not know exactly which direction they will be going with the ball.
Yank: Sam lays out the case for why this is both a DiNuccis law scenario and an incredible vibe shift for the Browns. The Ravens have been awesome and should definitely win this game, but between the new life on offense and the Browns excellent defense it feels like they should be able to keep it close.
Yank’s Pick: $11.00 on the Browns+8.5 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $6.00 on the Browns+8.5 (-115)
The Confrontation:
The Philadelphia Eagles @ the Cincinnati Bengals
Sam: Nothing about the Bengals this season has been inspiring – and yet – they are the 6th best offense by DVOA and their defense is top 15. Both of these marks are higher than the Eagles whose coach should be on some kind of FBI Watch List. I like the Bengals to start to get the outcomes to match up with the analytics as we turn the page on October, starting with a solid win over a mediocre team.
Yank: I just do not believe in this Cincinnati team at all. They struggled to pull away from my terrible Giants, who have no semblance of an offense. The Eagles have a much better offense and a much better defense than the Giants, as they proved last week. They should be favored in this game. Seems like a no-brainer to take the free points.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Eagles+2.5
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Bengals-2.5
The Isolation:
The Arizona Cardinals @ the Miami Dolphins-4.5
Yank: Miami has arguably been the worst team in the league the past few weeks. All of a sudden Tua is back and everyone likes them again? At best he is one play from being knocked out of any game. At worst how could he not have some rust from multiple weeks off AND significant trepidation about getting hit that affects how he plays? Arizona is liable to lay an egg against anyone but I’m not sure many points will be required to cover in this one let alone win outright.
Yank’s Pick: $10.70 on the Cards+4.5 (-107) and $10.00 on a moneyline parlay Cards+Packers (+336)
The Carolina Panthers @ the Denver Broncos Total 41
Yank: Add the Panthers to the list of teams I’d like to go against every week. Even with listless Bo Nix on the other side, they are over 10-point dogs. The two QBs in this game may end with less than 200 total combined passing yards. Would not be surprised to see a final score like 14-6 or 20-0 in this one. Give me the under.
Yank’s Pick: $10.80 on Under 42(-108)
The New York Jets-7 @ the New England Patriots
Sam: 7 is too many points for the Jets. I’m tossing this line up to the public believing Rodgers and Adams will throw it back to 2020. The Pats stink, but give me them and a full TD.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Pats+7 (-110)
The Atlanta Falcons-2.5 @ the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sam: I know that the Bucs are losing their two best weapons, but Baker has been balling and they’ll be motivated to avenge their close loss to the Falcons a few weeks ago. Throw in the Bucs being at home, and I’ll take a shot on the Bucs ML.
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Bucs ML (+120)
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 