Intro by Sam
Last week was a bit of a disappointment after an awesome Week 8, but the good thing about football is that new games come every weekend. We won’t be dismayed by the poor performance, but instead, we will stick to our strategy of backing good teams and going against bad teams. To the picks!
Week 10 Picks
The Collaboration:
The San Francisco 49ers-6.5 @ the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Yank: One of our favorite angles here on One Last Line involved road favorites coming off a bye. If you’ve read these blogs before you probably know teams in that scenario cover historically at a 60% clip. This seems like a big number and frankly, it scares me a little but this is an autobet scenario, so here we go Niners.
Sam: This is an obvious autobet scenario, but I also think this is the time of the season when the Niners start to play like the Niners we’re used to. With McCaffery returning, I think this offense will click into gear and carry us to multiple high-line covers over the next few weeks.
Yank’s Pick: $11.00 on the Niners-6.5 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $8.00 on the Niners-6.5 (-110)
The Buffalo Bills-4 @ the Indianapolis Colts
Sam: We’ve adjusted our strategy over the last couple of weeks to focus on betting on good teams and against bad teams. We’re at the stage of the season where teams have mostly revealed themselves. In this case, we get a good team, the Bills, going up against a bad team, the Colts.
Yank: The Colts have been inconsistent which is really just the nice way to say “bad”. Buffalo is by no means a perfect team but when given the opportunity this year they have put up points. I don’t trust either Colts QB to keep pace.
Yank’s Pick: $11.00 on the Bills-4 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $10.00 on the Bills-4.5 (-110)
The Tennessee Titans @ the Los Angeles Chargers-8
Yank: Hank Williams Jr. once sang “lord, I love the ladies, and I also love Jim Beam”. It’s fitting that I can’t get those words out of my head thinking about this poorly coached football team from Nashville. Sing it with me folks “I love betting against Will Levis and I also love Jim…Harbaugh”. The Chargers will prove why coaching and QB play matter in this one.
Sam: I don’t know if the Chargers can score enough points in this one to build a safe lead for the cover, but the Chargers have that sneaky team element to them right now. They’re not media darlings, they don’t really have superstars on the roster, they’re just a solid, well-coached football team. Teams like that can go under the radar for most of the season and are a missed opportunity when it comes to gambling. We won’t let them sneak away this week.
Yank’s Pick: $11.00 on the Chargers-8 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $6.00 on the Chargers-7.5 (-115)
The New York Jets-2 @ the Arizona Cardinals
Sam: Is everyone ready to just jump back on the Jets after one decent win? Maybe they are back, but count me out for now. The Cardinals being home dogs feels like as good an opportunity to bet them as any. I certainly don’t trust the Cardinals, but my distrust of the Jets is greater.
Yank: The Jets and Aaron Rodgers remain comically overrated by Vegas. Going against them on the spread has been lucrative this year. Don’t see a reason to stop now, give me the Cards.
Yank’s Pick: $11.00 on the Cardinals+2 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Cardinals+1.5 (-105)
The Philadelphia Eagles @ the Dallas Cowboys+7
Yank: Everyone officially thinks Dallas stinks now, and they may even be right. Nevertheless, this is one of our favorite scenarios, a One Last Line classic: this is a DiNuccis Law game! Named in honor of Ben DiNucci, fittingly of the Cowboys, Sam and I learned the hard way that often the gambling public overestimates teams’ ability to blowout an opponent starting a backup QB, particularly in their first start. I think Dallas actually had a decent shot to win this game with Cooper Rush at QB.
Sam: Yank makes the case for this being a DiNucci’s Law game. Not only do I agree with his analysis, but I’d also like to make the case that the Eagles are an unserious football team right now. Yes, Saquon is incredible, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Sirianni gets fired at halftime at some point this season. His antics are tired. Let’s see what happens!
Yank’s Pick: $10.50 on the Cowboys+7 (-105)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Cowboys+7 (-105) and $3.00 on the Cowboys ML (+285)
The Confrontation:
No Confrontation this week.
The Isolation:
The Minnesota Vikings-7.5 @ the Jacksonville Jaguars
Sam: This definitely has potential for a DiNucci’s Law game, but unlike my typical Vikings nature, I’m not expecting disaster (although usually, that’s exactly when disaster strikes). It’s an unusual feeling, but I’m actually confident in this team. The Vikings defense will make Mac Jones see ghosts, and the offense is starting to get into a rhythm. They should have their way on both sides of the ball all game long. I’m so confident in a good day for the Vikings that I’m going to hike the line and parlay it with the other potential big blowout game in the Niners-Bucs.
Sam’s Pick: $10.00 on the Vikings-7 (-105) and $5.00 on a Vikings-10 & 49ers-10 Parlay (+453)
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 