Intro by Yank
I saw a news story this week that said FanDuel and DraftKings had to adjust their expected profits for this quarter, as football bettors have been doing better than expected. As we approach the holidays, let that be a sign unto you, my friends, there’s no time like the present!
Week 11 Picks
The Collaboration:
The Minnesota Vikings-6 @ the Tennessee Titans
Sam: Sammy D will get right today. The Vikings offense has been moving the ball up and down the field the last couple of weeks, but they haven’t been able to punch it in at all due to some bad throws. I boldly claimed that the Vikings would blow out the Jags, and that should’ve been the case, but I think the Vikings will right the ship today.
Yank: I’ve said it before and I will say it again: I’m happy to go against Brian Callahan and Will Levis every week. Tennessee does not do anything well. The Vikings have a ferocious defense and the best WR in the league. They should roll in this one.
Yank’s Pick: $11.50 on the Vikings-5.5 (-115)
Sam’s Pick: $10.00 on the Vikings-6 (-115)
The Jacksonville Jaguars @ the Detroit Lions -13.5
Yank: Dan Campbell’s Lions are physical and they take no prisoners. Unfortunately for Jacksonville fans I think this Jags team would prefer to be taken prisoner. Mac Jones was totally listless last week in his first start and the stories are already coming out this morning that Doug Pederson “might be in a bad spot if they lose this game”. Bad vibes all around for the home team, who may be down by 14 before the first quarter ends.
Sam: Unlike KOC, Dan Campbell has no problem running the ball all the way into the endzone. I didn’t see any signs that the Vikings couldn’t run the ball last week, so I expect a similar game to the Jaguars-Vikings from last week, but this time the Lions will be scoring in bunches.
Yank’s Pick: $11.00 on the Lions-13.5 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $8.00 on the Lions-13.5 (-110)
The Indianapolis Colts @ the New York Jets-4
Sam: AR is back, and I’m betting it will be in big fashion. The Colts have hung around with the corpse of Joe Flacco, so put a little zazz back into the offense and they’ll find their way into a game with the Jets.
Yank: The Jets were just annihilated by Arizona which begs the question of how they could be favored by 4 points against anyone? I have no good answers to that question so I am taking the Colts more or less sight unseen.
Yank’s Pick: $11.00 on the Colts+4 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $6.00 on the Colts+3.5 (-102)
The Cincinnati Bengals @ the Los Angeles Chargers -1.5
Yank: I really like this Chargers team. Jim Harbaugh coming into a situation with a good QB where he could immediately establish a physical identity on both lines has unsurprisingly paid dividends. Meanwhile, I still believe this Bengals team stinks. They’ve played well against the Ravens and then exclusively against teams who project to pick in the top 5. Last I checked the Chargers are neither.
Sam: We’re all aboard the Harbaugh Chargers. I laid out last week why I think the Chargers are this year’s sneaky cover team, so we will continue betting on them until they prove us wrong.
Yank’s Pick: $11.00 on the Chargers-1.5 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $8.00 on the Chargers ML (-124)
Tease of the week
The Kansas City Chiefs @ the Buffalo Bills-2
The Las Vegas Raiders @ the Miami Dolphins-7.5
Sam: Mahomes is an underdog. I repeat. Mahomes is an underdog. Yes, that team has its flaws, but that defense is continuing to keep them in games and a little Mahomes magic is the right recipe. This game should be awesome, and we know it always comes down to the last play. Meanwhile, the Dolphins horrible season shouldn’t distract you from what they were supposed to be at the beginning of the season. Going up against a bad Raiders team, I don’t expect this one to be much of a contest.
Yank: KC Buffalo will be an awesome football game, I cannot wait to watch it. Mahomes as an underdog remains one of the best bets out there. Buffalo is explosive, and at home, so a tease seemed like a prudent strategy here for a game that almost certainly will be one score either way. We’re teasing it with Miami, who has looked solid if unspectacular since Tua’s return, just to beat the Raiders, who have been spectacularly bad.
Yank’s Pick: $12.50 on a 6-point teaser Chiefs+8/Dolphins-1 (-125)
Sam’s Pick: $13.40 on a 6-point teaser Chiefs+8/Dolphins-1.5 (-134)
The Confrontation:
The Baltimore Ravens-3.5 @ the Pittsburgh Steelers
Sam: I’m particularly enjoying this version of the Tomlin Steelers. No, I don’t like Russ, but it’s honestly been kind of fun to see him having success after those miserable Broncos seasons. Nevertheless, they’re taking on a historically great Ravens offense that has found it’s groove. The Steelers have been a nightmare for Lamar, despite his successes thus far, but I think this is the game where we learn this Ravens team is different than previous versions.
Yank: Sam makes some good points about the Ravens, honestly I tend to agree with his analysis. That said the underdog has a ridiculous record of success in this game both against the spread and straight up. Add that to Mike Tomlin’s record as an underdog and the fact that this game is in Pittsburgh and it seems to be a recipe for another strange result.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Steelers+3
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Ravens-3
The Isolation:
The Atlanta Falcons @ the Denver Broncos-1.5
Sam: Welcome to the Kirk-coaster, Falcons fans! Kirk Cousins is the king of October, which we saw in full effect last month, but he always slips up in November. This guy is a .500 machine, so everything has to balance. He’s going up against a good defense, which makes things difficult for him, and Nix doesn’t have to be spectacular to move the ball against the Falcons defense.
Sam’s Pick: $7.00 on the Broncos ML (-126)
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 