Intro by Sam
Well, well, well. It’s finally here. It’s the last week of the regular season, and if you’re anything like us, you’re sad to see it go, but pumped for a little more meaningful football over the next couple of weeks. Never fret though, just because most of these games absolutely suck, we did not let the week get away without a few bets.
Week 18 Picks
The Collaboration:
The Cincinnati Bengals-2.5 @ the Pittsburgh Steelers
Yank: One last chance to bet on Mike Tomlin as a home underdog this regular season and I will not be passing it up. I saw a headline that said the Steelers want to “get the stink of losing off of them” earlier this week. Meanwhile the Bengals defense flat out stinks. I don’t think they are reliable even in a must-win spot. I like the Steelers in a shootout, just like the first game.
Sam: The Steelers have been playing poorly lately, but just like Yank lays out, there’s nothing like a bad defense to get the kinks ironed out. The Steelers should be able to move the ball with ease, and while I love the Steelers defense, the Bengals have been on a scorcher themselves. Hence taking the Steelers to win parlayed with the over.
Yank’s Pick: $10.90 on the Steelers+3 (-109) and $10.00 on a parlay Steelers ML+Game O48.5 (+324)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Steelers+2.5 (-114) and $8.00 on a parlay Steelers ML + Game O48.5 (+263)
The New Orleans Saints @ the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-14
Yank: The Saints are awful. The Bucs have to win this game to win the division. No need to overthink things here.
Sam: We know the first half of this game is going to be all Baker to Evans over and over again. My only worry with this bet is that when it becomes clear that the Bucs have won, they put in Kyle Trask, will the Saints find their way to a back door cover.
Yank’s Pick: $11.00 on the Bucs-14 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $10.00 on the Bucs-14.5 (-110)
The Carolina Panthers @ the Atlanta Falcons-7.5
Yank: The Falcons should quickly see the Bucs take a commanding lead on the scoreboard. When they realize they aren’t making the playoffs it will be hard to keep the same verve. Meanwhile, Carolina has low-key been one of the hottest teams in the league the last few weeks. I think Bryce Young could jump up and surprise some people at the end of this one, more than 3-1 odds feel too good to pass up.
Sam: At One Last Line, we’re known for bad bets, but one of our favorites is identifying the Tease Killer of the Week. While no one is likely looking at the Falcons as a major tease candidate during a Week 18 matchup, but they fit the bill as 7.5-point favorites. While I won’t go so far as to say the Panthers have been one of the hottest teams the last few weeks, they have been much more competent and could surprise some folks.
Yank’s Pick: $6.35 on the Panthers ML (+315)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Panthers ML (+300)
The Confrontation:
The Minnesota Vikings @ the Detroit Lions-3
Sam: It’s Week 18, the Vikings have 14 wins and are 1 shy of securing the #1 overall seed in the NFC. This is exactly what I predicted to happen before the season! While I don’t know who will win this game, I do know that there should be a lot of offense. Justin Jefferson averages an insane 180+ yards per game in Detroit, and even with a healthy Detroit defense, the Vikings haven’t had too many issues diagnosing the Aaron Glenn defense. And while I’ll be actively rooting against it, the Lions offense has looked insanely good and proven they can match up well against Flores. I expect a lot of points, and how can I not pick my own team in such a pivotal matchup?
Yank: I’ve been all over the Lions all year and there is no reason to stop now. This stadium is going to be absolutely rocking. The Vikings QB is still Sam Darnold. In the battle of teams who have so much history of disappointing their own fans, I think the home team has a slight edge and Campbell’s aggressiveness ends up being the difference late. Buckle up for this one folks, these offenses are both going to have their foot on the gas!
Yank’s Pick: $10.00 on the Lions-3 (+100) and $11.50 on the game O55.5 (-115)
Sam’s Pick: $10.00 on the Vikings+3 (+100) and $10.00 on the game O56.6 (-105)
The Isolation:
Prop Bet: SGP of Mike Evans O94.5 receiving and Justin Jefferson O100 receiving yards
Sam: Just read the sections covering the Bucs and Vikings games to understand this bet. Evans has been on a heater with Baker and he has a contract incentive to gain a lot of yards. Meanwhile, Justin Jefferson is out of this world when he plays Detroit and I don’t think he’s going to go down to the Lions without a fight. Easiest shot at decent odds SGP as you’re going to get.
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Evans/JJ SGP (+299)
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 