Intro by Sam
Last week turned out about as well as it has for me all season. Yank managed to only lose a little, while I keep diving deeper into the red. I’m letting Yank’s strategy guide me this week because I lost the taste for football after my team no-showed in a neutral environment.
Saturday, January 18, 2025
The Houston Texans @ the Kansas City Chiefs-8 – 4:30 PM ET
Sam: I kinda feel like the Texans still actually stink. I know that the game against the Chargers threw everyone off the scent, but this just isn’t their year. I’m sure CJ Stroud and co. will be heard from in the years to come, but this is just a bit premature. Nevertheless, the Chiefs offense has been less than desirable, so this should be a close game. I’m taking the points with the Texans, but I won’t be shocked if they struggle to score in this one.
Yank: The Chiefs have been begging us to see them for who they are all year. Their defense is high level but their offense struggles to pull away from teams. I have no doubt Patrick Mahomes will find a way to win this game, which may never even be in doubt. But eight is way too many points so I’m going to go full Galaxy brain and try to middle this game with the Texans plus the points and a separate Chiefs moneyline parlay.
Yank’s Pick: $15.00 on a moneyline parlay Chiefs/Eagles (-150) and 5.40 on the Texans+8.5 (-108)
Sam’s Pick: $11.50 on the Chiefs-8.5 (-115), and $10.00 on a Chiefs/Lions/Eagles/Ravens ML Parlay (+255)
The Washington Commanders @ the Detroit Lions-9.5 – 8:00 PM ET
Sam: Similar to the Texans it was nice to see the Jayden Daniels and the Commanders put up a fight and get out of Tampa with a win. They’re a fun story, but the buck stops here. I think the Lions getting healthier and healthier will only enable them to run it endlessly and the defense will make life hell for Daniels. I like the Lions, the points, and a lot of running.
Yank: I have been riding the Lions train all year and see no reason to get off now. The Lions dominate teams physically in the trenches and impose their will running the ball. The Commanders have the third-worst run defense in the league by DVOA. There’s a reason this line keeps getting higher and higher.
Yank’s Pick: $11.00 on the Lions-9 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $11.20 on the Lions-8.5 (-112), $5.00 on Jared Goff Passing Attempts U32.5 (-105), and $10.00 on a Chiefs/Lions/Eagles/Ravens ML Parlay (+255)
Sunday, January 19, 2025
The Los Angeles Rams @ the Philadelphia Eagles-6.5 – 3:00 PM ET
Yank: This Eagles team is the second coming of the ‘72 Dolphins. They haven’t lost a game Jalen Hurts started since September. Their march to the Lombardi trophy continues this week. I’m putting money on them in as many different ways as I can. (Editors note: this entry was sent in via magazine letters cut and pasted to a white sheet of paper).
Sam: Admittedly, I’m a bit biased by the beatdown we saw last week against my Vikings. The Rams seem scary, they have the edge at coach, and the defense is playing its best ball of the season. That being said, I don’t know how they can overpower this rushing attack led by Barkley. The OLine is on a different planet than the Vikings, so getting home and being physical won’t be as easy. I don’t like this line, but I have to go with the Eagles in this one.
Yank’s Pick: $5.50 on the Eagles-6 (-110), $15.00 on an Eagles/Chiefs moneyline parlay (-150), and $12.00 on Saquon Barkley longest rush O18.5 yards (-120)
Sam’s Pick: $12.00 on the Eagles-6 (-120), $5.00 on Saquon Barkley longest rush O20.5 yards (-110), and $10.00 on a Chiefs/Lions/Eagles/Ravens ML Parlay (+255)
The Baltimore Ravens-1.5 @ the Buffalo Bills – 6:00 PM ET
Yank: I think the Derrick Henry Lamar Jackson read option is the NFL equivalent of the Steph Curry/Kevin Durant pick and roll circa 2017-2019. There is no actual way to defend it. No matter what the defense does they are wrong. The Ravens made the Steelers defense last week look like Swiss cheese. Unfortunately for Buffalo, this is where their offseason cap casualties rear their ugly head. I don’t think they have the horses defensively to slow down the Henry/Jackson freight train.
Sam: Are the Bills going to be motivated by their disastrous performance last time these two teams met? Is the snow and the home crowd going to give the Bills an edge? Can the Ravens not go full Ravens like they have in the last few seasons? I’m thinking that the Ravens should make the Super Bowl, but they make me a little nervous. I’m sticking with them this round, so let’s hope they get over what’s ailed them in the past.
Yank’s Pick: $23.00 on the Ravens ML (-118)
Sam’s Pick: $15.00 on the Ravens ML (-118), and $10.00 on a Chiefs/Lions/Eagles/Ravens ML Parlay (+255)
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 