Intro by Sam
Welcome back, folks! One Last Line is back for another season, and boy, are we ready to go. It’s been a long offseason, and today’s action can’t get any better. We’re tweaking the format a bit after a few seasons of getting loose with the categories. We’re going to settle on the official collaboration of the week, one confrontation, and one Moneyline Parlay of the Week. If we have other bets to share, we’ll list them at the end of the blog in the rapid-fire picks section. We think this recipe will help us win a lot o’ money and can’t wait to prove ourselves wrong.
Week 1 Picks
The Collaboration
The Miami Dolphins @ the Indianapolis Colts-1.5
Yank: Excited to be back with you all for another year, and equally excited that pick number one can originate from my home base of Indianapolis. Even with Daniel Jones out and about at Tin Roof this summer, it was easy to forget he has a legitimate shot at the starting QB job for the Colts. For both Colts fans and gamblers, let me be the voice that cries out in the wilderness on this one on a Sunday morning: Daniel Jones stinks. He has looked great in preseason camp and practice before. When the lights come on, errant passes, killer sacks, and big fumbles are the name of his game. I don’t believe we will have the ability to bet against him for long, so we need to take advantage while we can. The Dolphins represent the first opportunity.
Sam: There are 2 angles to this bet. As Yank lays out, Daniel Jones stinks. The Colts have a couple of weapons, but by and large, they’re extremely untalented for an NFL team. The second angle is that everyone is out on the Dolphins. Yes, they were a shit show last season, but when Tua starts, they’re usually able to move the ball (so long as it’s not cold). I don’t think they’re going anywhere this season, but they should be able to beat up on this AFC South team, just like everyone else in the NFL.
Yank’s Pick: $16.20 on the Dolphins ML (-108)
Sam’s Pick: $11.80 on the Dolphins+1.5 (-118)
The Confrontation
The Baltimore Ravens-1.5 @ the Buffalo Bills
Sam: What is this? The 5th version of this Confrontation for us? I’m going to continue to ride with the Ravens. Everyone seems to be anointing the Bills as the team to beat in the AFC, but this Ravens team is also fully loaded. I don’t think the Bills’ defense has enough to stop the Ravens’ dynamic duo.
Yank: The Bills have lost three games at home over the last three years. Three losses total. In three years. They also just beat the Ravens in the playoffs. I love the Ravens this year, but why are we overthinking this?
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Bills+1.5 (-115)
Sam’s Pick: $10.89 on the Ravens-1 (-109)
The Money Line Parlay of the Week
The Arizona Cardinals-5.5 @ the New Orleans Saints
The Detroit Lions @ the Green Bay Packers -1.5
Yank: This is designed to take a shot on the Lions, who are getting no love relative to the Packers this offseason. Remember the Lions, who won 15 games last year while their whole defense was hurt? Now it’s week 1, and their players are healthy. I’m sure losing both coordinators will matter, but even if they are 3-4 games worse, that’s still an 11-win team. Meanwhile, Dan Campbell has owned the Packers. Worth a shot on the moneyline. Let’s boost the odds a little by adding in the Cardinals, who are playing the Saints, my pick to be the worst team in the league. Just win by one, Cardinals, and help us out here.
Sam: I absolutely think the Lions could take a step back, but what season are we in of the Packers having the best preseason offense and defense in the league? Season 3? You have to knock off the champs for me to believe it. In the other matchup, I will be betting against the Saints pretty much every week for this entire season. They fall into the Panthers and Titans category of seasons past.
Yank’s Pick: $10.00 on a Lions and Cardinals ML parlay (+193)
Sam’s Pick: $10.00 on a Lions and Cardinals ML parlay (+185)
Rapid-Fire Isolation Picks
Sam’s Picks:
$4.90 on the Atlanta Falcons ML (+102) VS the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
$5.59 on the Tennessee Titans+8.5 (-110) @ the Denver Broncos
$11.77 on the Minnesota Vikings ML (-118) @ the Chicago Bears
$10.00 on the Las Vegas Raiders ML (+130) @ the New England Patriots
Sam: For the inaugural Rapid-Fire Isolation picks, I will write a quick breakdown of my picks, but this is not guaranteed to happen every week. The gist of these picks are teams that I am higher on than what I’ve seen in the public, even if that doesn’t mean they’ll be awesome. I like Penix, and think they’ll be a factor in the NFC South this year. The Titans make me nervous, but no one is talking about Cam Ward as the #1 overall pick, and everyone has anointed 40-year-old Bo Nix as a sure thing. Consider me skeptical. The Vikings pick is obvious – SKOL. Even if McCarthy is only okay, the team is extremely talented at every position. Lastly, I like the Raiders getting a professional coach and a professional QB. They might not be a playoff team, but I think the Patriots have a few years of rebuilding to do still.
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 