Intro by Yank
Week 2 is upon us, and we’re getting the last vestiges of a false summer heating us here in Indianapolis. It’s fitting because Daniel Jones looked incredibly spry for the Colts in this very city just last week. Was that showing fools’ gold like our current temps, or can it be something lasting? Read on to find out our predictions. We may not be able to call the picks exactly right, but we did tell you Ravens-Bills would be one of the best games of the year. No chance you can get insights like that from anywhere else!
Week 2 Picks
The Collaboration
The Baltimore Ravens-11.5 @ the Cleveland Browns
Yank: Week 1 was a good reminder for me that picking based on how we feel about things has low historical success (check back on our first season of this blog to see how). One thing that’s not a feeling, but an objective fact, is that the Ravens have one of the top 2-3 most talented rosters in the league. They are going to win and cover a lot. Abandoning ship on them would be a rookie mistake. I intend to get them every week so long as Lamar and Derrick Henry are healthy.
Sam: Despite the loss, the Ravens showed that they were one of the best teams in the NFL last week. I’d argue that for large stretches of that game, they were the most dominant team I’ve seen in years. Yes, they lost, and a division game is never a sure thing, but they should bounce back and be out for blood this week.
Yank’s Pick: $10.80 on the Ravens-11.5 (-108)
Sam’s Pick: $11.00 on the Ravens-11.5 (-110)
The Confrontation
The Denver Broncos-2.5 @ the Indianapolis Colts
Sam: Most of my picks to start this season, excluding a few specific picks this week, will be following my preseason takes. While Daniel Dimes wasn’t high on my list of QBs to bet on, the Broncos not being as good this season as last was on my list of preseason takes. Simply put, Bo Nix wasn’t very good in college. He had one awesome season with Oregon when his team was more talented than most of the teams they played. Give teams a year of tape, and they can make adjustments. On the Colts’ side, Miami might be the worst team in the NFL this season, so any takeaways could be a wash, but I really liked the way the OL came together for the Colts. I thought it would be a weakness, but their young guys stepped up and gave Dimes a lot of time to throw. I hate flip-flopping from one week to the other, and the Colts smashed our Collab last week, so this feels like a tried and true overreaction, but Yank is hell bent on betting against Dimes every week, and I’m trying to capitalize on his (potentially) blind rage early.
Yank: I have watched Daniel Jones play a lot of football, too much football if we are being honest. He sucks. He is turnover-prone and unreliable. One week of good tape against possibly the worst defense in the league, with a significantly positive game script where they were gifted multiple turnovers early, is not enough to sway my opinion. I intend to bet against Daniel Jones every week that he starts. We will see what his record ATS is at the end of the season.
Yank’s Pick: $16.50 on the Broncos-1 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $5.62 on the Colts+2.5 (-113)
The Money Line Parlay of the Week
The Jacksonville Jaguars @ the Cincinnati Bengals-3.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ the Houston Texans-2.5
Yank: I like constructing this type of parlay that gets to the +240 range because if you go 8-9 in a 7-week season, you come out ahead. Picking winners in NFL games is hard, but can we get two winners in just under half the weeks of the season? We will surely try. For Week 2, Jacksonville played Carolina, one of the worst teams in football last week, and wasn’t exactly awe-inspiring. Meanwhile, Houston barely scored against the Rams. I like both the Bengals and Bucs as playoff teams; it feels like a worthwhile shot for 2.5 to 1 odds.
Sam: When Yank first suggested this ML parlay, I was concerned. The Bengals haven’t been exactly trustworthy lately, not to mention their uninspiring starts to the season the last few years. Furthermore, the Bucs are good, but they seem like one of those teams that always find themselves in a toss-up late in the 4th quarter. But then Yank said it’s essentially a bet against the Jags and Texans, and wow, does that feel better. The Jags are uninspiring despite bringing in Travis Hunter, and the Texans somehow managed to downgrade their horrendous offensive line from last season. Let’s get it.
Yank’s Pick: $10.00 on a Bengals/Buccaneers ML Parlay (+248)
Sam’s Pick: $10.00 on a Bengals/Buccaneers ML Parlay (+243)
Rapid-Fire Isolation Picks
Sam’s Picks:
$4.82 on the Buffalo Bills-6.5 (-108) @ the New York Jets
$6.00 on the Kansas City Chiefs ML (+102) VS the Philadelphia Eagles
$4.00 on the New Orleans Saints ML (+136) VS the San Francisco 49ers
$7.36 on the Minnesota Vikings-3.5 (-105) VS the Atlanta Falcons
Sam: Like with the Ravens pick, the Bills can put up points in a hurry. They could be 13-4 ATS this year, so why not get on them early? For the Chiefs, we have every reason to bet the Eagles, but they, too, weren’t all that impressive, and I’m going to take Mahomes as an underdog almost anytime I can. Meanwhile, the Saints were on my list of teams to go against every week, but even bad teams win a game here and there. Why wouldn’t a week with a Mac Jones-led, injury-riddled 49ers team be the week? And lastly, I wanted to find a way to take the Vikings ML again, but settled for the spread. Yes, the first 3 quarters were abysmal offensively last week, but behind the shiny first drives from Caleb Williams, the Vikings’ Defense flashed its teeth. The run game, defense, and a winning QB should get the job done in JJ McCarthy’s first start at home.
Yank’s Picks:
$11.00 on the Buffalo Bills-6 (-110) @ the New York Jets
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 