Intro by Sam
Welcome to Week 3! Oh, how Sundays can’t come soon enough, but they move along too quickly. Week 1 weirdness settled down into what we thought would be more of the norm in week 2, highlighted by OLL’s thrilling ML Parlay of the Week win thanks to Baker’s last-minute heroics. We’ll mostly be sticking to the course with our preseason takes this week, plus our first DiNucci’s Law sighting!
Week 3 Picks
The Collaboration
The Indianapolis Colts-5.5 @ the Tennessee Titans
Sam: I don’t know if I’ve ever flip-flopped so much on one team in the first three weeks of the season from a betting perspective. I bet against the Colts in week 1 and lost, I bet on them in Week 2 and won, and now I’m going against them again in Week 3. Huh? I absolutely question the validity of Yank’s wrath towards Daniel Jones. The Colts have won two games, and he’s looked good in white and blue. So why am I changing paths again? One of my preseason takes is that Cam Ward might be overlooked this year – seeing as he was all offseason (including by me). This is a divisional game, Jeffrey Simmons is a beast, and 5.5 points seems like too many to me.
Yank: Here we are again, me betting against Daniel Jones, Sam questioning whether it’s a good idea. Here are the facts people, the Colts should have lost both straight up and against the spread last week. A rarely seen “leverage” penalty took them from zero to hero, yes indeed (like Hercules). Tennessee is not good but this Colts team is due for a stinker. I’m sticking to my guns and fading the team starting Daniel Jones.
Yank’s Pick: $17.10 on the Titans+4.5 (-114)
Sam’s Pick: $7.69 on the Titans+5 (-110)
The Confrontation
The Cincinnati Bengals @ the Minnesota Vikings-3
Yank: This is a big week for backup QBs and one of our favorite theories, “DiNuccis Law”. We believe the spread often overcorrects for a backup QB and ends up making the team starting the backup a good play (as evidenced by betting against and losing to Ben DiNucci several times on the Cowboys, among others). The Jets are another great DiNuccis law opportunity you’ll see we both like in The Isolation. For this game, both teams are starting backup QBs. Will the real DiNucci please stand up? I’m going with the Bengals purely because both teams are going to be erratic, and they are getting points.
Sam: Three weeks in a row of betting on the Vikings. I had higher expectations of this team than have been delivered as of yet, but I think they can get good backup play from Wentz, since O’Connell has done it with the likes of Josh Dobbs and Nick Mullens, and the Bengals defense doesn’t have a ton of talent outside of Trey Hendrickson. Mason will get the bulk of the carries this week, and he’s demonstrated he’s a better option than Aaron Jones thus far. Wentz’s history doesn’t spark a lot of confidence, but I’m going to believe in this team until they’ve beaten me down too far (which could easily be after this week).
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Bengals+3 (+100)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Vikings-3 (+100)
The Money Line Parlay of the Week
The Houston Texans @ the Jacksonville Jaguars-1.5
The Atlanta Falcons-5.5 @ the Carolina Panthers
Yank: At the beginning of the season, nobody was picking the Jags to have a better record than the Texans, and Houston has dominated recent matchups in Jacksonville specifically. Feels like the wrong team is favored in this one. Let’s juice the moneyline odds by adding in the Falcons playing one of the worst teams in football.
Sam: This ML Parlay of the Week is fairly straightforward. The Texans aren’t a great team, but they will get on the board with a win soon (ideally this week). The Falcons have demonstrated a nice pass rush which should create nightmares for an already shaky Bryce Young. I didn’t want to pick the Falcons’ spread because the game could be close, but they should do enough to win this game.
Yank’s Pick: $10.00 on a Falcons/Texans ML Parlay
Sam’s Pick: $9.28 on a Falcons/Texans ML Parlay (+203)
Rapid-Fire Isolation Picks
Yank’s Picks:
$5.00 on the New York Jets+6.5 (-105) @ the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
$11.20 on OVER 50 in Bears/Cowboys (-112)
Sam’s Picks:
$6.30 on the Packers-7.5 (-105) @ the Cleveland Browns
$5.50 on the Steelers-1.5 (-110) @ the New England Patriots
$6.00 on the Las Vegas Raiders+2.5 (+100) @ the Washington Commanders
$6.25 on the Philadelphia Eagles-3 (-125) VS the Los Angeles Rams
$5.25 on the New York Giants+6 (-105) VS the Kansas City Chiefs
$7.00 on the New York Jets ML (+270) @ the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sam: I’m just going to add a few highlights for my Isolation picks this week. I like the Packers to win big as they slowly enter the Bills/Ravens Tier of beating up bad teams. The only way this game is close is if Love has one of those 3 interception games he throws in there occasionally. I’m also adding the Eagles to that tier and picking them to close the door on the Rams, who made this game close in the playoffs last season. My final two picks (on the Giants and Jets) are close to Tease Killer of the Week territory. The Giants were more of the team we thought they’d be last week against the Cowboys, and when you throw in DiNucci’s Law for the Jets, they could beat a really good Bucs team out of nowhere.
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 