Intro by Sam
Week 2 was good to your boy, so I’m basically on cloud nine. I really needed some wins to get back on track and went 3 for 4 on picks. I feel like I found some things that worked well, so let’s dive into the recap!
The Recap
Woah! No one look now, but the boys are 2-0 in the Collaboration. Jump on board while you can! It’s pretty clear to see why that pick worked out last week, the Rams are good and the Eagles are bad. Math. You’ll see more of this advanced statistical reasoning reflected in this week’s picks. As for the Confrontation, I came out ahead and evened the series split 1-1. Yank and I are both high on the FOOTBALL TEAM but the matchup with Arizona played out the way I thought it would. WFT’s defense is good but not good enough to stop a lethal Murray/Hopkins combo and Haskins looked as slow to get out of the gates as he did against the Eagles but without the hapless opposing offense. On the Isolation, I got out to a great start with a nice two-team teaser that featured two of the games’ best QBs overpowering two possibly bad teams. It seems like we might be onto something there… Meanwhile, Yank sniffed out the right matchup between the Jaguars and the Titans but Minshew’s stache came up just short of the win he needed to cash his bet. No shame with throwing a few Gregs on an underdog ML every now and then. The payout is just too tasty to resist.
The Principles
- Stay away from bad QBs and bad HCs.
- Parlay (and tease) at your own peril.
- Due to the salary cap, there isn’t a significant talent gap between the vast majority of NFL teams.
- If you’re going to pick a dog Week 1, play the money line.
Nominated Principles:
- Division games are less predictable than non-division games, due to team/scheme familiarity.
- Don’t chase your opinion about a team with bets.
Week 3 Picks
The Collaboration (2-0):
The Los Angeles Rams+2.0 (-107) and +1.5 (-105) @ The Buffalo Bills
Sam: If you read this blog long enough, you will come to learn that I can be pretty stubborn when it comes to takes, so it comes as no surprise that I’m yet to be convinced by the Rams. That being said, following Nominated Principle 3 (now Nominated Principle 2) helped me out a lot last week, so why should I deviate from that strategy this week? Aaron Donald picked up and tossed a pillow at Dak in Week One – oh wait, I misread that, it was EZEKIEL ELLIOT, a full-sized professional football player. That man is a monster and should honestly get more buzz for MVP than he does.
Yank: I am going to continue beating this drum until it burns me. The Rams are one of the 4-5 best teams in the league. The 9-7 performance with several close losses last year still is affecting people’s perceptions, but that is not going to last. You can probably do this argument for me by now: Goff is good enough, McVay is a top 5 coach, they have the best defensive player on earth, blah blah blah… and we haven’t even started talking about the Bills yet. Two words – Josh. Allen.
Sam: My worry about this game is that the Bills might actually be good. Whether this is true or not heavily depends on your opinion about Josh Allen. Allen has been lighting it up so far this season, he currently has the 4th highest QBR, “and he’s been particularly good when forced to operate on the fly: On passes outside the pocket, Allen has the third-best QBR in the league (97.3).” Diggs is a bonafide number 1 receiver. As a Vikings fan, I can tell you that his impact on the field can’t just be measured on his counting stats, and his counting stats are GOOD. His contested catch rate is consistently one of the best in the league and that can make a deep-throwing, inaccurate QB look like he’s good all of a sudden. That being said, I’m still a little skeptical of Josh Allen’s superstar status. First off, he beat up the Jets (omg wow) and the Dolphins (who?). Additionally, QBR as a whole can be a little misleading depending on the game situation, so Josh Hermsmeyer of FiveThirtyEight isolated a couple of statistics that are more predictive of future performance. Here’s what Hermsmeyer had to say: “Allen’s QBR when not under pressure (79) is good for just 19th in the league. His off-target throw percentage (16.3) has improved from previous years but is still good for just 16th in the NFL.” While those stats indicate that Allen might not be a superstar yet, they don’t exactly scream incompetence either. This bet truly depends on what kind of QB Josh Allen is – the Bills defense is a little banged up and not playing up to their usual standard, so they’re going to have to rely on Allen, Diggs, and Brown to stay in the game. I don’t trust Josh Allen yet, so I’m going to fade the Bills in this one because one of these teams is walking out of here 2-1.1
Yank: Shoutout to Sam for the depth of research, someone needs to bring some actual facts to this exercise. Ultimately one side of this matchup will be strength on strength McVay’s O against McDermott’s D. I believe those are both top-flight units in the NFL, let’s assume they play to a draw. Then Bills O vs. the Rams D is the matchup that will decide the game. Sam’s love for Stefon Diggs is real and warranted but Jalen Ramsey is going to be following him around the formation all afternoon. Josh Allen has looked improved this year, against weaker competition, and Sam made a compelling case for why that may have been fool’s gold to some degree. Even if he is improved, he ain’t seen nothing like Aaron Donald yet. I feel pretty good about having my money on Allen performing like rumblin’ bumblin’ fumblin’ Josh Allen from last year’s playoff game, especially faced with those two All-Pros on the opposite side. The eye test indicates this Rams team, if the blue-chippers stay healthy, should go 13-3 or 12-4 this year. All of my bets this week can really be described in one sentence, and the summary for this one is simple. The Rams are flat out better than the Bills and will win this game outright.
Yank’s Play: $5.32 on the Rams (-107)
Sam’s Play: $7.35 on the Rams+1.5 (-105)
The Confrontation (Even):
The Kansas City Chiefs @ The Baltimore Ravens-3.5
Yank: I get Patrick Mahomes and 3.5 points.
Sam: Touché Yank, touché. I would prefer not to be on this side of the 3 points, but alas, Vegas knows what it’s doing. Here’s the thing, Lamar Jackson was last year’s MVP. Outside of the letdown last year in the playoffs, LJ has been nothing but awesome. I’m banking on the Ravens catching the Chiefs early in the season while they’re still trying to figure things out. Was last week just a fluke? Or did the Chargers expose something that the Ravens can try to replicate this week? At the end of the day, there isn’t too much to think about in this one. Pick a side and rip it. This is likely to be the best game of the season and we get to watch it on Monday Night Football. We’re all winners with this game.
Yank’s Play: $5.50 on the Chiefs+3.5 (-110)
Sam’s Play: $5.00 on the Ravens-3.5 (-105)
The Isolation (Yank 0-2; Sam 1-1):
Washington Football Team+7.5 @ the Cleveland Browns
Kansas City Chiefs 1H O12.5(-129)
Yank: I have never claimed to be a genius and you probably are convinced by now, because I continue to hammer the same teams, including the Football Team, even after they failed me last week. Should they be favorites in many (any?) games, no. Is Dwayne Haskins possibly bad? Yes. If I lose this bet will I swear off this team for good? Probably. But Ron Rivera has these guys playing hard. I’ll admit it would help to score a point or two in the first half. Nevertheless, they have shown grit and resolve making big comebacks in both games so far and were within striking distance of covering last week in the 4th quarter. More important than grit and resolve they still have Chase Young and Ryan Kerrigan to harass Baker. And even more importantly they are playing the Browns. The Browns who have given up 68 points this season in two weeks. The Browns, who suddenly have a hype train that is full steam ahead, because of a win over terrible Cincinnati where they didn’t even cover. The Browns who could absolutely lose this game outright (I learned my lesson with the Jags last week, I really wanted to bet WFT on the Moneyline. I’m going to try to win some money this week instead). The one-sentence summary for this bet is simple. The Browns should not be favored by more than a touchdown against ANYONE.
As for the additional Isolation Pick this week, I still believe in the continuity of Andy Reid’s O in this weird year even though this wager didn’t hit last week. I am going to continue to bet this as long as I like the number until at least week 6, it should be a winner more often than not IMO.
Yank’s Play: $5.50 on WFT+7 and $5.10 on Chiefs 1H O12.5
Moneyline Parlay:
The Detroit Lions @ The Arizona Cardinals ML
The Chicago Bears @ The Atlanta Falcons ML
Sam: Do I even really need to say any more about the Arizona Cardinals? This team looks like it could be that young team with the rookie deal QB that has everything break right for them. As mentioned previously, the Murray/Hopkins connection cannot be understated. He catches EVERYTHING. One thing I am learning as a Vikings fan this season, DO NOT underestimate the impact of a great wide receiver on your offense and team’s success. Additionally, what evidence do we have that the Lions can beat anyone right now? I think Matt Stafford is good and they have good skill guys, but it is so hard to overcome incompetence at the HC level and across the defense. Of course, there is always a chance that the Lions win this game, they tied the Cards last year and had some big/random wins, but this feels like simple math. Good team vs. Bad team = Good team W. Sometimes it’s not worth overthinking.
The second leg of this parlay does require a lot of overthinking, underthinking, behindthinking, aroundthinking, etc. I am putting money on the Falcons?? What?? Honestly, I don’t feel great about that. The Falcons find a way to dag everyone that believes in them, so I’ll probably get on board that sinking ship. That being said, the Bears have to be the fakest 2-0 team at this point in the season. Mitch is still Mitch and the defense hasn’t been it’s often spectacular self. They barely beat the Lions and the Giants, so one might argue, they should actually be 0-2(yank: seriously the Gmen, who are terrible, should have beaten them). Meanwhile, the Falcons are a bonehead play away from 1-1. The Falcon’s have one of those almost defense-proof offenses, so I expect them to be able to score. It’s not usually my policy to bet against a team, but it does feel like week 3 is a good time for both of these teams to revert back to mean. Please don’t Falcons me, Falcons!
Sam’s Play: $6.00 on the Cardinals ML and Falcons ML (+125)
The Bank-Week 3
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $95.72 | $102.17 |
| Risk: | $21.47 | $18.35 |
| Potential Earnings: | $19.28 | $19.25 |
| Record: | 3-4 | 4-3 |
| Record against the Spread: | 3-2 | 3-2 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
References
- “Is Josh Allen Actually Good Now?” By Josh Hermsmeyer, 9/25/20, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-josh-allen-actually-good-now/
One Last Line 
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