NFL Week 6

Intro by Yank

The more things change the more things stay the same. We’ve learned a lot since the disastrous week 4. Much like a golfer who’s hitting the ball well who can’t score, we have been avoiding more losers, but still struggling to make money on the winners. Let’s get out on the putting green and talk about how we can start rolling in some birdies this round.

The Recap

All that said, Sam did have a nice bounce back last week. His Vikings took me and the Seahawks to task in The Collaboration where the Seahawks offense was no match for a strong Vikings running game and an almost literal monsoon that I maintain killed my chances for a cover. On the other hand, the Vikings lost the game in excruciating fashion, making the outcome bittersweet at best. In The Isolation, there was really never a doubt on my tease where the Rams continued to rampage over the WFT and the Cardinals dismantled the hapless Jets. On the other hand, both teams covered not just my tease, but the final 7+ point line, which made the fact that I didn’t capitalize more on those picks…bittersweet. For Sam’s part the logic behind his ML bets on the Dolphins, Chargers and Texans was sound, and two of those three were in it until the very end but unfortunately only one of them won, which was again…bittersweet. Are you sensing the pattern? 

Finally we did make one critical error. We bet on the Colts, who I still believe are good, against the Browns, who I still believe are bad. However in retrospect we went against principle #1, because in my opinion you should never be confident in an offense that is run by old Phil Rivers. He managed to throw away a game in which the Colts were the better team in basically every meaningful statistical category. Every noodle-armed throw late in that game was like watching a birdie putt lip out, or worse miss by 6 feet in some cases. Let’s stay with the principles and bring home some cash this week. 

The Principles

1. Stay away from bad QBs and bad HCs. Only bet on HCs and Offenses you are confident in.
2. Bet for a team not against their opponent 
3. Parlay (and tease) at your own peril.
4. Due to the salary cap, there isn’t a significant talent gap between the vast majority of NFL teams.
5.  If you’re going to pick a dog Week 1, play the money line.
6. Division games are less predictable than non-division games, due to team/scheme familiarity.

Week 6 Picks

The Collaboration (3-2 ATS; 1-1 bonus bets):

The Green Bay Packers-1.5 @ The Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Yank: I almost did a legitimate spit take when I heard this line for the first time on Monday. Speaking of saliva, there are two reasons to be salivating over this pick from my perspective:

1. We clearly have pissed off Aaron Rodgers this year. The Packers drafted Jordan Love to replace him. He wants to prove he’s the best QB in the league and through 4 weeks he has looked the part.

2. Tom Brady is OLD. He’s 43. Forty three. He’s forgetting down and distance in critical situations. His deep ball hangs. This may not matter against many teams but the Packers are a top 5 team if not a top 2 team. If this game is a shootout can he keep up? My hunch is if we put him in a Rivers jersey this line would not be so low.

You know what industry thinks a lot about salivary glands? Fast food. The Bucs are empty calories. Think old school KFC double down sandwich with the chicken on both sides instead of buns. Double down will have some additional meaning for us when it comes to this game as well

Sam: I don’t really know how to follow up after that artistry. This was the easiest bet I’ve made all season. After Week 1, I told Yank uh oh… Rodgers is going to murder teams in empty stadiums. I immediately bet on him and the Packers in Week 2 and every week since then I have thought about pulling the trigger but somehow didn’t (Guess who’s 4-0 against the spread this season?). I regret that and I’m making up for it here. Rodgers has a terrifying hard count at home, but now he gets to bring it on the road and this week you’re matching him up against one of the most undisciplined units in football. They currently lead the league in total penalties and are 6th in most defensive penalties.¹ Could Brady channel his inner washed king and turn back the clock for big matchups like this? Sure, but even if he does I can’t see Rodgers faltering at this point.

Yank’s Play: $5.50 on the Packers (-110)

Sam’s Play: $12.50 on the Packers (-125)

The Confrontation (3-2 Yank):

The Houston Texans @ The Tennessee Titans-3.5

Sam: This is pretty straightforward for me. The Titans are good and the Texans are bad. Are the Texans probably less bad without Billy O’B? Sure, but does Romeo Crennel really scream massive improvement either? No. I like Vrabel, I like Tannehill, and I like Clowney (lookout for the Clowney revenge game, ha!). This Titans team has been consistently good over the last year and half. It may look unconventional in some respects – smashmouth football with a solid defense, but you can’t argue with the results. Titan up!

Yank: Let’s start with the reasons not to like the Texans. Romeo Crennel is a BAD head coach, we can all agree on that. The Texans defense isn’t great. The Texans are 1-4. What am I doing here?! Constant vigilance faithful follower of the blog. These facts in a different light could be just the edge we are looking for. The 1-4 record is a product of playing the toughest schedule in the league so far. The Texans defense is actually 11th rated by DVOA, they have looked fallible because they’ve played awesome opponents. Romeo Crennel is mostly relevant in his role as “not Bill O’Brien” which as Sam points out above is potentially a net positive. Finally, we have to consider the opponent. I think the Titans are what Dan Rubenstein of the Solid Verbal calls an LRO team. Are we SURE they are good? Because I think this is the week their Luck Runs Out.

Sam: Admittedly I have thought this Tennessee team was more luck than substance, but during last season’s postseason run I started to believe. Interestingly enough, it’s not just about beliefs and 4 leaf clovers, we can look at production (find me when there is a luck-DVOA measure). For instance, I’ll give you a blind comparison between QB A and QB B over the last 14 games: QB A: 11-3 record, ~3600 passing yards, QBR 102.3. QB B: 11-3 record, ~3600 passing yards, QBR 116.7.² Who are these mysterious QBs? QB A is Patrick Mahomes. QB B is Ryan Tannehill. Is Ryan Tannehill Patrick Mahomes? No, but when it comes to production they are almost identical. The Titans have built an effective offense that runs the ball extremely well and capitalizes on play-action passing. The Vikings ran a similar scheme with great success against the Texans and I expect the defense to hold up a little better than the Viking’s unit fared. And finally, I have this guy on my side:

Yank: I’m really happy that Sam wants to turn this conversation to the numbers. I have some metrics I really like for this matchup as well. The most objective, best measure we have of overall team quality is Football Outsiders Total DVOA. Through 5 weeks, the Texans are the 13th best team by Total DVOA. The Titans….are 15th.³ I know the Texans are on the road, so the Titans should get some benefit of the doubt from the point spread. At the same time this is a division matchup where the teams know each other well, and the Titans are coming off a short week having played on Tuesday. Put it all together and I feel like the Titans should be 2-2.5 point favorites at most.  So to recap, I’ve got the better team AND a favorable line. If you’re doubting me, ask yourself one last question, do you really think we are going to be living in a world where the Titans are undefeated through week 6? The Texans have a great chance to win this game outright. 

Yank’s Play: $5.36 on the Texans+3.5 (-118)

Sam’s Play: $5.50 on the Titans-3.5 (-110)

The Isolation (Yank 3-4; Sam 3-5):

The Cincinnati Bengals @ The Indianapolis Colts-8

Sam: As Yank covered in the recap, watching Old Man Rivers last weekend was tough, so this pick may come as a surprise. If they had gotten competent QB play, that bet easily would have hit. Rivers is going to be a problem for this team throughout the season (as I have pointed out repeatedly the last two weeks mind you), but that doesn’t change the fact that overall this team is good. They should be getting Anthony Costanzo back which will definitely help Rivers feel a little more calm back there, but that’s not even the strength of their team. It’s the defense. I really like Burrow, I hope he is successful in this league, but boy he doesn’t stand a chance this season. I’m worried about his health and safety back there and it’s not getting any easier this week against the Colts’ DLine. I’m betting on a bounceback performance from the Colts, even if it’s just getting back to the basics.

Bonus: The Cleveland Browns @ The Pittsburgh Steelers-3.5

As for the bonus line this week, I wanted to have a little something, something on a more interesting matchup. Throughout the week, Yank and I were trying to come up with The Confrontation for this week. We had the Browns-Steelers matchup as an option all week because we both mistakenly thought the other would be on the Browns. Turns out neither of us want to be on the Browns. If you haven’t watched the Steelers all season, this should be a fun one. The Browns are feeling themselves a little (and rightfully so) and the Steelers are showing what they would have been like all season last year if that hadn’t had to play Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges all season. Speaking of Rudolph, I would think the Steelers are a little extra-motivated this week to get a little payback for what happened last season when these two teams met:

Motivation isn’t the only reason to bet this matchup this week either. The Steelers’ defense has picked up where they left off last year and boy is it a scary sight. I think Cam Heyward might be one of the most underrated players in the NFL and they pair him with T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree. These guys are everywhere in the backfield – this unit is currently leading the NFL in pressure rate at 41.2% (scary), tied for the lead in number of sacks at 20, and boasts some of the best run-stuffing statistics. Robert Mays of the Athletic outlined these stats in a great piece highlighting the play of the Steelers’ DLine. It’s worth a read! On the flipside, Baker Mayfield has a passer rating of 30 when under pressure (which will be more than 40% of the time in passing situations against the Steelers).⁴ All of this analysis adds up to this – the Steelers have the tools to stop the Browns awesome rushing attack and get after Baker. This is a recipe for a Steelers’ win and Sam getting paid.

Sam’s Play: $5.25 on the Colts-8 (-105) and $5.75 on the Steelers-3.5 (115)

Moneyline Parlay:

The Los Angeles Rams ML @ The San Francisco 49ers

The Green Bay Packers ML @ The Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Yank: I said double down would become a theme when it comes to that Packers-Bucs game and I meant it. I am confident Aaron Rodgers will be leaving the greater Tampa area with a win to go along with the traditional sunburn and Captain Morgan hangover that all Tampa tourists bring home with them. That belief anchors this parlay. 

The second part of this rationale is a tale as old as time on this blog, and one I will continue to tell. The Rams have one of the league’s best coaches and offensive schemes. They have the best defensive player in the world and two of the top 5. I truly believe if they stay healthy they will win 12 or 13 games. The 49ers got their doors blown off last week by the Dolphins. I don’t like division games because they are always unpredictable, especially when the favorite is on the road. Nevertheless, there will be no fans in the stands in Santa Clara and if I’m right about the Rams this year, this will be a W.  

Bonus: The Kansas City Chiefs (1H O15.5) @ The Buffalo Bills

I will keep the bonus bet brief, see past blogs for more detail. I’ve been betting the Chiefs 1H Over weekly and I’m 2-2 on this bet on the blog (and the Chiefs have gone over 17 in the 1H in 3 of their last 5). Ryan Tannehill torched the Bills last week, why shouldn’t Mahomes also?

Yank’s Play:$6.00 on the Rams and Packers ML(+201) and $5.75 on the Chiefs 1H O14.5(-115)

The Bank-Week 6

	Yank	Sam
Starting:	$104.40	$85.40
Risk:	$22.61	$29.00
Potential Earnings:	$26.56	$25.00
Record:	10-9	9-11
Record against the Spread:	6-6	5-7

Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello

References

1. https://www.nflpenalties.com/phase.php?year=2020
2. Robbie Weinstein, “The stats that suggest Ryan Tannehill is an elite NFL QB,” 10/14/20, https://247sports.com/Article/Tennessee-Titans-Ryan-Tannehill-The-stats-that-suggest-he-is-an-elite-NFL-QB-152970308/
3. Aaron Schatz, “Week 5 DVOA,” 10/13/20, https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2020/week-5-dvoa-ratings
4. Matthew Coller, Purple Insider Podcast, with guest Eric Eager, “Can We Trace The Vikings 1-4 Start to the offseason?” 15:30, https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/purple-insider-a-minnesota-vikings-and-nfl-podcast/id1513529873#episodeGuid=c0800c32-934f-44cf-acec-60b561474d9a