NFL Week 9

Intro by Sam

A successful Week 8 has the sun shining again, both Yank and I were in the profit column last week – a first for One Last Line! It may be pure randomness, but we are both really liking the formulas we have been onto the last two weeks and are looking to keep that momentum moving into Week 9.

The Recap

In last week’s Collaboration, we went 1-1. We banked on the Titans returning to form against a lesser opponent, but our greedy eyes overlooked the fact that the Titans had played a murderers row of tight/hard fought games over the last four weeks. Not to mention having a condensed schedule with a false bye-week 3 games into the season. The Bengals capitalized and our wallets suffered. Meanwhile, everyone suffered who watched the Eagles play the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. We ultimately came out as winners, but our football spirits didn’t feel so good after. Despite the Eagles and Carson Wentz trying their very best to lose that bet for us, Yank and I do have a new takeaway to share with you. We have affectionately labeled it “DiNucci’s Law.” Simply put, always take the opposing team when your local flag football hardo is starting at quarterback. Yank will provide more details in our Collaboration pick this week.

For the 4th week in a row, I escaped with a win in The Confrontation. The Steelers continue serving up covers and I’m happy to keep riding them. It was a close game, the Ravens had a chance to take it from the Steelers but just couldn’t muster up enough key plays. We had the most fun with our Isolation picks last week. A collective – and much needed – 3-0. My faith in Russell Wilson continues to be rewarded and Yank’s modified Chiefs strategy got him back on track in the no-brainer cover of the week. He did have to sweat his other Isolation pick out in a manner similar to the Eagles-Cowboys game. The Bears ultimately got the cover despite trying their best to let the Saints put them completely away. While we will not be taking any fond memories from the game itself, we did start to talk ourselves into a new guideline. Consider good-to-great defensive teams when the line is greater than 4.5. How this week plays out will go a long way in providing any validity to that concept as you will see reflected in our picks this week. On to Week 9! 

The Principles

1. Stay away from bad QBs and bad HCs. Only bet on HCs and Offenses you are confident in.
2. Bet for a team not against their opponent 
3. Parlay (and tease) at your own peril.
4. Due to the salary cap, there isn’t a significant talent gap between the vast majority of NFL teams.
5.  If you’re going to pick a dog Week 1, play the money line.
6. Division games are less predictable than non-division games, due to team/scheme familiarity.

Nominated Principles:

1. Vegas knows better. Some lines don’t look like you think they should – be very careful.

Week 9 Picks

The Collaboration (5-4 ATS; 1-1 bonus bets):

The Houston Texans-6.5/-7 @ The Jacksonville Jaguars

Bonus Bet: The Pittsburgh Steelers-20 @ The Dallas Cowboys

Sam: This is a pro-Deshaun Watson blog. I have gone against the Texans occasionally this season and have not enjoyed watching Watson try to keep a bad team alive. Thankfully this week, he won’t have to do everything by himself. You know why? Because he is playing the bad Jacksonville Jaguars. This pick isn’t so much about Deshaun and the Texans as it is about DiNucci’s Law. This week I get to pick against a guy who had no chance of being an NFL QB. Rookie QB’s do not play very well in NFL games, especially their first NFL games. We are putting DiNucci’s law to the test with this one and I like our chances.

Yank: DiNucci’s law is very simple and is a product of going against Ben DiNucci and the Cowboys last week. There are two key components to DiNucci’s law:

Thou shalt always bet against

1. A rookie QB, drafted in the sixth round or later, making their first start
2. A horrible coaching staff, steering the ship and leading the offense that the late-round rookie starter will be piloting

Mike McCarthy and Ben DiNucci were a match made in heaven last week. This week we have a new Tale of Two Ninnies. Enter Jake Luton. Who? Exactly. and our old friend Doug Marrone (how is he still an NFL coach?). And if that wasn’t enough they are poised to face Deshaun Watson, who may not be having the ideal year, but is no Carson Wentz. The Jags have been getting blown out in the best of times. It may be the worst of times for them on Sunday.

Sam: We also have a bonus Collaboration for you this week. We agreed to adjust the Steelers line from -14 to -20 to get better odds. We are both under the impression that this is either a trap game for the Steelers – meaning that they will somehow lose despite being the better, more talented team by far – or they will absolutely demolish the Cowboys as they should. Neither of us wanted to be on the line at 14 and have the Steelers no show, so we thought, why not juice the odds a bit and take the gamble on the Steelers waxing the floor with the downtrodden Cowboys. From a football perspective, this one is pretty clear. The Steelers have a great defense that is able to make any quarterback uncomfortable – especially a young QB with limited experience – and a bunch of playmakers who like to find their way into the back of the endzone.

Yank’s Play: $5.68 on the Texans-6.5 (-114) and $4.00 on the Steelers-20(+195)

Sam’s Play: $6.00 on the Texans-7 (-110) and $4.00 on the Steelers-20(+165)

The Confrontation (5-3 Sam):

The Carolina Panthers+10.5 @ The Kansas City Chiefs-10

Yank: The Chiefs have covered in 20 of their last 27 games including the playoffs. I’m dumb and bad at gambling but even I am smart enough to get on that train. Carolina is another middling talent, middling coaching, middling team. The Chiefs have the best QB and best offensive coaches and fastest skill talent on earth. Who on the Panthers is covering Tyreek Hill? Who on the Panthers is rushing the passer and pressuring Pat Mahomes? I’m not just blowing smoke to make my point, either, the Panthers are 25th in defensive DVOA through week 8. They are only 16th in Total DVOA.¹ They profile very similarly to the Buffalo Bills (14th in Total DVOA/23rd in Defensive DVOA), a team that the Chiefs HANDLED by 9 points, in a rainstorm, on the road. This game is in Kansas City, baby, home to barbecue and blowouts. Speaking of which, the Panthers are going to get smoked in this matchup. 

Sam: Having made this mistake in The Confrontation previously, I don’t like betting against the Chiefs. The Panthers could easily be BBQ Chicken (cat?) at the end of this one, but there is something to like about this Panthers team. They’ve been a good story all year. I mean, it’s hard not to root for Teddy. Outside of all the feels, there are real reasons to like this team. First and foremost, they’ve been competitive all year. Their one loss of more than 10 came against the Bucs early in the season. Of course, the Bucs have the firepower that only a team like the Chiefs can rival on offense, but if you watched that game, it was really the Bucs’ defense that gave the Panthers fits during that one. A couple key turnovers and pressure all day. Well, the Chiefs defense hasn’t exactly been the Bucs defense this season. I expect the Panthers to be able to score and hang around until the end. One other element that I like in this game is that the Panthers are coming off a disappointing performance on Thursday Night Football. Not only does it give them a psychological edge to get back in the hunt, but rest is dramatically helpful in the NFL. As we’ve mentioned, we’re halfway through the season already. These guys want and need a break, even if it’s only a couple of extra days. In the end, I believe the talent gap will probably keep them a possession or two away from winning this one, but that’s all I need to be within 10.5 at the end. 

Yank’s Play: $5.50 on the Chiefs-10 (-110)

Sam’s Play: $4.80 on the Panthers+10.5 (-120)

The Isolation (Yank 5-7; Sam 6-6):

The Baltimore Ravens @ The Indianapolis Colts (pk)

Yank: I finally had a good week down here in The Isolation last week picking against the spread and sniffing out favorable matchups. One of those picks was on the Bears, a team with a horrible offense and coaches I strongly dislike, and it worked! The first thing that tells us is anything can happen, but the second thing that underscored for me, is the role a really strong defense can play. Much like the Bears, the Colts defense is awesome (Colts ranked #3 in defensive DVOA, Bears are #6). We had the misfortune of wagering in The Collaboration on the Colts earlier this year in a game Darius Leonard did not play in due to injury, and that experience soured us on the Colts a bit. Here’s the reality, Leonard is back, he is a dominant force and this defense is different with him out there. Secondly, on the surface this could be a bad matchup for perceived momentum-Baltimore is clearly stock down coming off a loss to a division rival, while the Colts are stock up coming off a blowout of Detroit. However that perceived momentum was not absorbed by the public 60% of whom have bet on the Ravens. I love to go against consensus whenever I can (there’s a reason they keep building those huge Casinos and your average Joe doesn’t get rich quick gambling), and I also think this is a potential let down spot for the Ravens. They just had arguably their biggest game of the season and came up just short. Are we sure they’re going to be juiced to travel to Indianapolis and take on the Colts in a game nobody outside of Indy/Baltimore will watch or care about? When this game opened as Ravens-2.5 I liked the Colts outright, and everything that has happened since has only reinforced that belief. I expect Darius Leonard and the defense to lead the Colts to victory.

Yank’s Play: $5.43 on the Colts pick’em (-109)

The Miami Dolphins @ The Arizona Cardinals-4.5

The New Orleans Saints @ The Tampa Bay Buccaneers-4.5

The Chicago Bears+6.5 @ The Tennessee Titans

Sam: I went a little crazy this week. Instead of sticking to just one game, I kind of wanted to take a shotgun approach and hit a couple of games I feel good about.

In the first matchup, I have the Cardinals-4.5 at home against the Dolphins. If you watched any of last week’s Dolphins game, you saw a dominant defense and a not so hot offense. Since it was such a strong game defensively for the Dolphins it was hard to get a good picture of Tua and the new Miami offense, but what we did see wasn’t blow the doors off exciting. Tua looked a tad shaky. With that performance the Dolphins are stock way up. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are sneaky right behind the Seahawks for second in the NFC West. They have one of the best run games and the Dolphins despite having a good overall defense, have the worst run defense in the NFL. I’m hoping to capitalize on the momentum from Miami lowering this line a bit and getting value on the Cards.

My second matchup features almost the exact same bet that lost me money in Week One. I am once again returning to the Bucs against the Saints. There isn’t a lot to lay out here. The Saints have not looked like a strong team this season. Drew Brees can’t seem to throw the ball downfield at all and that’s a problem. Meanwhile, Tom is looking more like New England Tom and I’m curious to see what the Bucs offense looks like with even more firepower now that Antonio Brown is in the fold. Additionally, the Bucs defense has carried this team when the Bucs offense has been slow. I think this game will play out similar to the last time these two teams met, but this time it will be the Bucs on top. 

Lastly, I’m repeating Yank’s pick from last week by jumping on the Bears +6.5 against the Titans. Here’s the formula. I don’t like picking a defensive team to be a favorite, and hell, I don’t really even like them within 3 points, but you give me 6.5 and I’m happy to take them. The Bears defense is really good. They’ve got players at all levels and that DLine is impressive. With no Lewan at OT, I expect Khalil Mack to be in the backfield all day. The other element I like in this matchup is that the Titans’ defense is bad. Like bad, bad. They are currently allowing teams to convert on 62% of 3rd downs!!² Do you know how bad that is? Honestly, I can’t even think of an adequate metaphor to describe how bad that is. It’s just bad. On the other side of the ball, Foles has looked pretty bad for the most part since he took over this season, but he also had to go against the Colts, Saints, and Bucs. Not an easy stretch of defenses. This week he has a matchup that looks more like the Falcons defense that he lit up when he came in for Mitch earlier this year. I’m not necessarily banking on the offense to show up all of a sudden, but at least enough to make this a close one like they have all season.

Sam’s Play: $6.00 on the Cards-4.5 (-110), $5.50 on the Bucs-4.5 (-110), and $4.40 on the Bears+6.5 (-110)

The Bank-Week 9

	Yank	Sam
Starting:	$81.29	$104.24
Risk:	$20.61	$30.70
Potential Earnings:	$22.80	$30.50
Record:	14-17	17-14
Record against the Spread:	10-11	13-10

Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello

References

1. “Week 8 DVOA Ratings” by Aaron Schatz, 03 Nov 2020, https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2020/week-8-dvoa-ratings
2. teamrankings.com, https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-third-down-conversion-pct