Intro by Yank
Not a great week for your boys last week. We literally cannot do any worse. You may remember how despondent I have felt after previous bad weeks, but strangely I feel differently this time. Maybe I have some weird gambling version of Stockholm Syndrome, but I think we are due for a comeback in a serious way. Let me explain.
The Recap
Let’s start with The Isolation where we went an astonishing 0-4. We made two picks based on awesome defenses we expected to carry their teams (Colts for me/Bears for Sam). The defenses each gave up only 17 points in their respective games; unfortunately, both offenses gave up TDs on turnovers, and both our bets went down with the ship. Speaking of going down with the ship, the Bucs getting blasted by the Saints was exceptionally unlikely (Tompa was the number one ranked team in the league in Total DVOA by a wide margin heading into the week) but it sunk another of Sam’s choices. The Cardinals got out-dueled coming off a bye at home, which is another unlikely result (and an angle we will come back to).
In The Collaboration, we lost on a razor’s edge result as the Jags scored with almost no time left to cut an 8 point deficit to 2 gaining themselves nothing at all, but beating the spread to take our money. We also lost our long shot bonus bet that required a Steelers blowout. The beauty of The Confrontation is that someone has to win. Sam made the right call to take the Panthers, who never really threatened to win but looked frisky enough to cover as an underdog, which is quickly becoming a Matt Rhule staple. I know that’s not an encouraging list of results but if you squint I think we’re close to being onto something (or maybe I should get an eye exam and you should fade everything below). I said it once, I will say it again, I believe we are due.
The Principles
Stay away from bad QBs and bad HCs.Only bet on HCs and Offenses you are confident in.- Bet for a team not against their opponent
- Parlay (and tease) at your own peril.
- Due to the salary cap, there isn’t a significant talent gap between the vast majority of NFL teams.
- If you’re going to pick a dog Week 1, play the money line.
- Division games are less predictable than non-division games, due to team/scheme familiarity.
Nominated Principles:
- Vegas knows better. Some lines don’t look like you think they should – be very careful.
Week 10 Picks
The Collaboration (5-5 ATS; 1-2 bonus bets):
The Jacksonville Jaguars @ The Green Bay Packers-13
The Baltimore Ravens-6.5 @ The New England Patriots
Sam: The first matchup goes into new territory for us this season. Typically Yank and I have stayed away from big lines like the Packers-13 in previous seasons, however, this year we have opened ourselves up a bit and this has all the makings of a Packers big win. First and foremost, Aaron Rodgers is very good. Second, the Jaguars are very bad. While the Packers have struggled in some big spots against good competition, they are also prone to absolutely demolishing bad teams (Lions, Texans, Falcons). I missed out on some opportunities to bet the Packers earlier this season when they were awesome, but I expect them to have a repeat performance this week. Additionally, the Packers had a few extra days of rest, which I maintain is important at this time of the season.
Yank: The Packers getting extra rest coming off of Thursday Night Football is an underrated aspect of this bet. Aaron Jones’ calf should be feeling great along with the return of the rest of the RB room following a stint on the COVID list. A healthy Packers team is formidable (7th in Total DVOA, 2nd(!) in Offensive DVOA through week 9). The Jags are whatever the opposite of formidable is (30th ranked Total and 32nd (!) ranked Defense by DVOA through week 9).1 Finally I still believe in DiNucci’s law which we formulated last week. Jake Luton is still a rookie 6th round pick. He’s still coached by Doug Marrone. Terrible Romeo Crennel and the Texans not being able to cover last week against them is not throwing me off the scent. I smell a Packers blowout, and it’s not the only one we are hoping we sniffed out this week.
Sam: Our second pick of The Collaboration features a similar matchup in terms of one good team vs. one bad team, but in this matchup we get a better line. Let’s face it. The Patriots are bad this season. They were neck and neck with the Jets last week. Yes, you read that right, the Jets! The Patriots made Joe Flacco look like the Superbowl winning QB he was 40 years ago. The Ravens, like the Packers, are very good at football. They have a good defense and explosive ability on offense. Granted the Ravens offense hasn’t been in-sync much this season, but they do a really good job of beating up on bad teams. Our plan is to capitalize on the Patriots’ name deflating the line here.
Yank:
- October 25, 2020-Foxborough, MA
- San Francisco 33 New England 6
- Rush Yards: SF 197 NE 94
As of Week 9: NFL Team Rushing Yards rankings – San Francisco #12, Baltimore #1
Enough said.
Yank’s Play: $5.50 on the Packers-13 (-110) and $6.50 on the Ravens-6.5(-130)
Sam’s Play: $10 on the Packers-13 (-115) and $5.75 on the Ravens-7(-115)
The Confrontation (6-3 Sam):
The Seattle Seahawks+1.5 @ The Los Angeles Rams-1.5
Yank: It is only fitting that The Confrontation would feature the two teams Sam and I have been the strongest supporters of in our personal text thread in their first matchup of the year. If you’ve read any of our blogs from earlier in the year you know that I love this Rams team. They may not be poised to go 13-3 or 12-4 as I had a penchant for suggesting, but Sean McVay on one side of the ball combined with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey on the other is a dangerous combination when everyone is healthy. The Rams have admittedly not looked as strong in recent weeks as they did early in the year, but I like them in this specific spot. Favorites coming off a bye are 148-103 (59% winning percentage) against the spread since 2003.2 Combine that with the fact that the Seahawks defense has largely been atrocious this year and I am sure McVay will have an especially effective game plan for this one in his bag of tricks. Most importantly, I think the Rams need this game more, a loss puts them effectively three games back of the Seahawks, which would put their division title chances in serious doubt. I think these teams are basically even and this is a close game, but the Rams are just a little faster, a little hungrier, and a little better prepared on this particular day.
Sam: As Yank said, this is a perfect matchup for The Confrontation in the most football way too. It’s a stick to your guns kind of head-to-head. I have cautioned Yank against believing too much in the Rams and he has dragged me kicking and screaming to put money on them at times this season. In fairness, those bets turned out okay for me (2-1). But mostly I have been an advocate for that take: are the Rams really *that* good? Let me list their wins for you: Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, WFT, and the Bears. 🤙🏻. Yes Aaron Donald will give me nightmares during this game and Jalen Ramsey can cover, but the Seahawks have something the Rams don’t: Russell Wilson. Need I remind you, he is very good at football. Much better than the guy undercenter on the other team. Additionally, the Seahawks have playmakers. DK Metcalf is outrageous and Tyler Lockett makes a sick toe-tapping touchdown weekly it seems. The concern for this game is that the Seahawks have a bad defense. There are no two ways about it. They can’t get pressure and they can’t cover. Not a good recipe. That being said, I like the Seahawks to be able to put up points and even more points than the Rams by the end of this one, and I have the Seahawks as dogs.
Yank’s Play: $5.50 on the Rams-1.5 (-110)
Sam’s Play: $5.00 on the Seahawks+1.5 (-110)
The Isolation (Yank 5-8; Sam 6-9):
San Francisco 49ers ML @ the New Orleans Saints
The Los Angeles Chargers+1.5 @ the Miami Dolphins
Sam: These two picks are a little unusual at first glance. In the first matchup, I am banking on an angle Yank and I capitalized on last season. We came about this angle by playing too many teases last season that lost us money. By the end of the season, we got on a roll by identifying the “tease killer of the week.” The formula we used to identify the Tease Killer involved the following:
- Must be a 7 point favorite or higher.
- A team that has a lot of wins and 1-2 losses – it’s important to note that most teams don’t end the season 14-2 or even 13-3 for that matter.
- Usually a letdown spot for a big favorite coming off of a big win.
- Playing a team that isn’t maybe as bad as they’re being treated or is overlooked.
As you can see, this game really fits that bill. The Saints had a huge win against a division rival, they’re at the top of the NFC, and they’re playing the 49ers who are pretty injured but a Superbowl team last season. I’ve made it a habit to lose money to the Saints all season, hopefully, this is where I turn the corner.
A word of caution: this might be the dumbest thing you read all year. The second pick is putting our nominated principle to the test – Vegas knows better. Some lines don’t look like you think they should – be very careful. I feel like this line should be Dolphins by at least 3 points if not more. Why on earth are the Chargers, who have to fly all the way across the country and are 2-6, getting 1.5? Meanwhile, the Dolphins with Tua have been exciting. I know the Dolphins are missing some key guys on defense, but this line is too low. In fact, this line implies that the Chargers are 1.5 point favorites(!!!) on a neutral field. It makes no sense. So here is where I could look really, really dumb. Normally I would chortle and take the Dolphins, but I am seasoned to the ways of losing. Instead of betting on my opinion of this matchup, I’m going to ride on Vegas knowing better than I do. This line feels like a Vegas trap and I’m going to hedge my bets on Vegas liking to make money.
Sam’s Play: $3.00 on the Chargers+1.5 (-110) and $3 on the 49ers ML (+330)
The Arizona Cardinals-2.5 vs. The Buffalo Bills
The San Francisco 49ers+10 @ The New Orleans Saints
Yank: Because of this blog I have watched more Buffalo Bills football than ever before. I’ve been paying special attention to games where they play NFC West teams, at first because we bet on the Rams to beat them, and then last week to see if they could replicate their winning ways as a home underdog against the Seahawks. When they beat both those strong opponents in shootouts I became pretty confident in a couple things. 1) Traveling from the west coast to Buffalo, NY is hard. 2) Buffalo’s defense, which gave up 30+ points in each game, is not very good. 3) Because of the bad D Buffalo really needs Josh Allen to carry them, and he has. This week Buffalo is the team that will be traveling cross country. He’s facing the Arizona Cardinals defense which has been surprisingly strong, ranking 10th in DVOA. I’m betting Josh Allen comes back down to Earth a bit. Give me Kyler Murray and the Cardinals to put up points in bunches and win this game at home.
Another guy who knows a thing or two about putting up points in bunches is Kyle Shanahan. Everybody remembers Nick Mullens looking terrible and the 49ers getting punked by the Packers on Thursday Night. They also watched Brees and the Saints put a punking of their own on Tompa on Sunday Night. The Saints are really good, but not as good as this outrageous line would suggest; recency bias is playing a factor here. The 49ers are getting their best WRs and starting LT back, along with some defensive players. They played their worst possible game last week and still only lost by 17. On top of that, this could not possibly be a bigger let down spot for the Saints. I’m not as confident as Sam that the Niners have a chance to win outright, but I am confident Kyle Shanahan can manufacture at least 24 points, which should definitely be enough to cover, at worst, in this spot.
Yank’s Play: $5.50 on the Cardinals-2.5 (-110) and $6 on the 49ers+10 (-120)
The Bank-Week 10
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $60.68 | $82.34 |
| Risk: | $29.00 | $26.75 |
| Potential Earnings: | $25.00 | $30.88 |
| Record: | 14-21 | 18-19 |
| Record against the Spread: | 10-14 | 14-14 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
References
- “Week 9 DVOA Ratings” by Aaron Schatz, 10 Nov 2020, https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2020/week-9-dvoa-ratings
- “NFL Betting Bye Week Strategy” by Henry John, 30 May 2020, https://www.lineups.com/betting/nfl-bye-week-betting-strategy/
One Last Line 