Intro by Yank
The metaphors were better than the picks on Thanksgiving, but thankfully unlike Matt Patricia, there is nobody coming in over the top to fire me… yet. Let’s see if we learned anything from a wild four days of football.
The Recap
Rapid-fire recap for a rapid-fire week of picks. Lessons learned:
- We had Miami in The Collaboration against Denver. Taking a rookie QB on the road against a Vic Fangio defense is always risky. Drew Lock is not abhorrent.
- In The Confrontation, I once again rode McVay and the Rams to victory. If Sam has the Bucs, you would be best advised to stay away.
- In The Isolation:
- We both won money on the Steelers (every bet on this blog moving forward should probably be on the Steelers).
- I lost on the Chiefs, which is almost impossible to do.
- Sam astutely realized the under was the move on the terrible Browns/Eagles matchup in bad weather and also got a win on the Football Team, who he correctly predicted are sneakily underrated.
Finally on Thanksgiving Sam correctly predicted the Lions would give up on Patricia, a game I overthought enough to take the Lions. Unfortunately, Sam got on the overthinking train for the following game where he went against our beloved Football Team and paid the price. Mike McCarthy also must hate me, because he sank my under bet by going for it deep in his own territory what felt like 1000 times handing free point after free point to Washington.
At this point, our number one goal is not to overthink it. We’ll see if we succeed. (As always, you should probably fade us).
The Principles
Stay away from bad QBs and bad HCs.Only bet on HCs and Offenses you are confident in.- Bet for a team not against their opponent
- Parlay (and tease) at your own peril.
- Due to the salary cap, there isn’t a significant talent gap between the vast majority of NFL teams.
- If you’re going to pick a dog Week 1, play the money line.
- Division games are less predictable than non-division games, due to team/scheme familiarity.
Nominated Principles:
- Vegas knows better. Some lines don’t look like you think they should – be very careful.
Week 12 Picks
The Collaboration (5-8 ATS; 1-2 bonus bets):
Moneyline Parlay:
The Kansas City Chiefs @ the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Las Vegas Raiders @ the Atlanta Falcons
Sam: We’ve got two picks for you this week. In the first matchup, we wanted to spice up The Collaboration with a Moneyline Parlay, something we haven’t done much this season. I’ve been keeping my eye on the Nevada Raiders the last couple of weeks and have been silently impressed. Of course last week, they impressed the entire country by hanging around with the Chiefs until Patrick Mahomes decided to do his thing at the end of the game. I like Derek Carr’s game and as much as I don’t trust Gruden and what they’ve got on the defensive side of the ball, they keep serving up W’s. This week they’re going up against the Falcons who should be able to keep pace on offense but hasn’t shown a lot of chops defensively either. Raiders should knock this one out and secure the win. Paired with Raiders, we have the Chiefs. I think betting on the Chiefs to win is smart gambling and if you can get them at + odds, even better. A cruising Raiders team parlayed with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will hopefully have me feeling pretty relaxed this Sunday.
Yank: My number one job as the worst picker on this blog is to not talk Sam out of good ideas at this point. He thinks the Raiders are good. Derek Carr was awesome on Sunday night. Gruden seems like he has the offense rolling. Let’s keep the points coming against a terrible Falcons squad. I am also smart to continue to put money on the Chiefs in some way every week. As Andy Reid said this weekend “I have Patrick Mahomes so you give me a minute and a half and I’m good there.” For me, if I have Patrick Mahomes and you give me a dollar and a half for every dollar, like the odds we are getting here, I am feeling the same way.
Bonus: The Las Vegas Raiders @ the Atlanta Falcons(O53)
Sam: The bonus pick this week follows similar logic to our Moneyline Parlay. With the Raiders and the Falcons, we are getting two offensive units who are both perfectly capable of covering 53 points by themselves any given week. In addition to that, we get two defenses who are also perfectly capable of giving up 53 points any given week. That recipe leads me to believe that 53 total points is an easy target to cover.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Chiefs/Raiders ML Parlay(+140) and $5.00 on the Raiders/Falcons O53(-105)
Sam’s Play: $7.00 on the Chiefs/Raiders ML Parlay(+140) and $5.00 on the Raiders/Falcons O53(-105)
The Confrontation (6-5 Sam):
The Tennessee Titans @ the Indianapolis Colts-3
Yank: Step two of my new gambling philosophy is to not talk myself out of good ideas because of old vendettas. I hate Phil Rivers, who I feel like can barely throw the ball 30 yards, and has lost me money multiple times. However, I watched every play of Titans/Ravens last weekend and Tennessee did everything they could to hand the game to Baltimore. Lucky for them, Baltimore decided they’d prefer to lose also and handed it right back. The Colts are the number 5 team by total DVOA through eleven weeks on the backs of a top 5 defense. Tennesse has the 26th(!) rated defense by DVOA which lines up nicely with the Colts’ weakness, their offense. I like the Colts to show up and take control of the division at home on Sunday.
Sam: When these two teams faced off a couple of weeks ago, it was pretty neck and neck until the Colts made a play or two and broke the game open. This is bound to happen against a bad unit like the Titans’ defense, but nevertheless, the final score wasn’t entirely indicative of the competitiveness of the game. I like that the Titans are underdogs in this one and expect them to play a more balanced game this time around. Derrick Henry was rendered useless by the end of the game, and Vrabel and the Titans will make some adjustments to get him and their other playmakers involved. The Colts have a top 5 unit on defense, but the public is back on board with them after the stink of some of Rivers’ performances has worn off. Stinky Rivers is bound to return and a few bad plays from him this time around will do the trick for me. Let’s go Titans.
Yank’s Play: $5.50 on the Colts-3(-110)
Sam’s Play: $5.50 on the Titans+3(-110)
The Isolation (Yank 5-10; Sam 6-11):
The Los Angeles Chargers @ the Buffalo Bills (O54)
The Chicago Bears ML @ the Green Bay Packers
Sam: When I saw this matchup on the schedule, all I could think about was Josh Allen throwing bombs combined with replica Josh Allen (aka Justin Herbert) throwing bombs as well. Neither of these teams has demonstrated that they can really stop anyone from scoring, but they have shown that they can score with the best of them. Vegas couldn’t set this line high enough for me to stay away. In my second pick for The Isolation, I have a small taste on the Bears being the Tease Killer of the Week. The Packers have come back to earth after a pretty torrid start to the season and have shown that they are vulnerable. They are also going against a great defense. The Bears can stuff the run and put pressure on the QB. Rodgers won’t fold easily, but it should be close. If you’ve watched any of the Bears with Foles, it really shouldn’t be a vote of confidence for Trubisky because Foles has been t-e-r-r-i-b-l-e, but maybe miracles do happen. All I need is a motivated Trubisky to step in and make two or three more plays than Foles was incapable of making.
Sam’s Play: $5.00 on the Chargers/Bills O54(-110) and $3.00 on the Bears ML(+325)
The Cleveland Browns-13 @ the Jacksonville Jaguars
Yank: I hate both of these teams. I particularly hate the Browns offense, but we saw what happens last week when the Jags face a good defense – Vladimir Luton turned into Count Pick-ula. Now the Jags have turned to Mike Glennon, who many people probably forgot existed, and who was not good enough to beat out Count Pick-ula, a rookie sixth-round pick, in camp. This team is still coached by Doug Marrone. There is a decent shot that basic competence is enough to run roughshod over this team. Kevin Stefanski seems competent. The Browns’ defense has been competent. The Browns’ two-headed monster of All-Pro running backs is otherworldly. Worth jacking up the line by a TD and taking a shot that by 4pm Sunday this game can be explained in a montage of clips of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt running free in the open field.
Yank’s Play: $2.50 on the Browns-13(+165)
The Bank-Week 12
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $24.53 | $56.44 |
| Risk: | $18.00 | $25.50 |
| Potential Earnings: | $20.88 | $33.86 |
| Record: | 16-28 | 22-27 |
| Record against the Spread: | 13-21 | 15-21 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 