NFL Week 14

Intro by Yank

We (really Sam) saw some early returns from our new strategy last week, so we’re dialing up the blitz again. It’s another week of not overthinking it with good teams, trying to play teases where appropriate, and looking carefully at home dogs is in front of us. 

The Recap

Transparently it was a little bit of The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly for us last week. The good was Sam picking in The Isolation, he identified both the Football Team and the Lions as potential upsets, and they both came through for him in crazy comebacks. Always nice to see someone on this blog get a little luck. The bad is still the best way to describe my luck; I am snake-bit enough to get the Jets to 99% win probability when I have money against them. Thankfully for me (and for both your favorite blog boys) the ugly was Gregg Williams going down with the ship engaging eight in an obvious Hail Mary situation. We salute Gregg for a push we probably didn’t deserve when the Raiders won by three (along with the Packers easily covering 2.5 in the other half of our tease) for The Collaboration. 

Just like the hero in a western, my last stand continues and I’m hoping our new approach can continue to help me up against what seem like insurmountable odds. Let’s saddle up for week 14 friends. 

The Principles

1. Stay away from bad QBs and bad HCs. Only bet on HCs and Offenses you are confident in.
2. Bet for a team not against their opponent 
3. Parlay (and tease) at your own peril.
4. Due to the salary cap, there isn’t a significant talent gap between the vast majority of NFL teams.
5.  If you’re going to pick a dog Week 1, play the money line.
6. Division games are less predictable than non-division games, due to team/scheme familiarity.

Nominated Principles:

1. Vegas knows better. Some lines don’t look like you think they should – be very careful.

Week 14 Picks

The Collaboration (5-8 ATS; 1-4-1 bonus bets):

Two-Team 6-Point Teaser:

The New York Jets @ the Seattle Seahawks-7.5 (was 13.5)

The New Orleans Saints-0.5 (was 6.5) @ the Philadelphia Eagles

Sam: The saying goes “iron sharpens iron.” Given our track record this season it might be more like aluminum on aluminum, but either way we really went back and forth on this pick throughout the week. As we covered last week, we like teasing big favorites at home AND teams that we think are in the top tier AND going against the Jets. Check, check, check. The first matchup of our Teaser created the most consternation. I was worried about the Seahawks Offense and the scoring surge from the Jets, so I did a little digging. The Seahawks have had a bit of an offensive drop-off scoring under their season average of ~27 points per game highlighted by scoring just 12 points against the Giants last week. The Seahawks offense has struggled and there’s not a lot of agreement about what’s going on there. It could be a number of issues from play calling to Russell Wilson’s decision making to a series of dropped balls from otherwise sure-handed receivers, but what has gone unnoticed is a defensive resurgence from the Seahawks. According to the beat writers that follow them closely (I firmly believe that you get the best picture of a team from non-team hired beat writers), the Seahawks’ pass rush has turned the corner. They’ve gotten healthier with Dunlap playing again and even Jamal Adams contributing pressure on the QB. So the Seahawks offense is still a question mark, but the Seahawks defense is turning a corner – hold that thought. The Jets meanwhile have been out here putting up points – they’ve scored 27+ points in 3 of the last 4 games. This is a scary proposition – one team on the up and up going against another team that can’t find the endzone. But when you take a closer look it could be more about the opponents the Jets have been playing than the offense itself. In the 3 games above 27 points, they played the 9th, 6th, and 8th easiest defenses by DVOA. Here’s the amount of points they’ve scored against the top-half of defenses all season: 13, 7, 28, 10, 0, 10, 3. Even with Darnold playing the last 4 weeks, they only scored 3 points against a good defense. Thus, the picture becomes clearer: If you assume the Seahawks pass rush and defense is playing better, the Jets will have a hard time scoring. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense will undoubtedly need to play better, but they do have a track record of scoring against bad defenses (and there’s no salvaging the Jets defense). I’ve come around on this game and think there’s value in getting the Seahawks under 10.

Yank: Sam is all over the analytical rationale when it comes to Seahawks/Jets. For me it’s even simpler. The Seahawks have Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett. The Jets have the league’s 32nd rated pass defense by DVOA. I firmly believe we should be teasing against the Jets basically every week and plan to do so if given the chance. Don’t overthink it. Speaking of not overthinking it the Saints are the #1 team by DVOA and are firmly entrenched in the “it’s almost never a bad idea to bet on them tier”. They have been carried by the strength of their defense with Drew Brees out. This week they get to play a reeling Eagles team featuring a rookie QB making his first start. There is absolutely an opportunity for weirdness in this game, but as part of this tease all we need from the Saints is a W. I am comfortable putting my last stand in that ferocious defense’s hands. 

Sam: When it comes to the Saints, I have to agree with Yank. I am 0-5 betting against the Saints this year because they’ve been downright awesome this year and they show no signs of slowing down. The Saints have a three game stretch under their belt where Taysom Hill has been able to manage the offense enough not to screw things up. They control the ball and get the ball into the hands of their playmakers. This is effective but not scary. The strength of this team lies in its defense as Yank pointed out. These guys have been on a tear all season and this week they get a rookie QB. I like Hurts, I hope he’s successful (not this week) and I wouldn’t lie if I weren’t a little intimidated by some of his scrambling shenanigans. But as I said to an Eagles fan last Sunday, I don’t believe the Eagles have a Wentz problem, they have an infrastructure problem. Hurts might be able to make magic happen and have some special plays, but I’m banking on him running into a force this weekend.

Yank’s Play: $6.53 on the Seahawks/Saints Teaser (-120) 

Sam’s Play: $5.60 on the Seahawks/Saints Teaser (-140)

The Confrontation (7-5 Sam):

Postponed Indefinitely 

The Isolation (Yank 6-12; Sam 12-13):

The Minnesota Vikings @ the Tampa Bay Buccaneers O53

Two-Team 6-Point Teaser:

The Indianapolis Colts @ the Oakland Raiders+9.0 (was +3.0)

The Arizona Cardinals @ the New York Giants+8.5 (was +2.5)

The Green Bay Packers @ the Detroit Lions+8.5 and ML

Sam: I’ve got a couple of picks again for you this week in the Isolation. First up, I’m taking Over 53 points when my Vikings visit the Tompa Bay Buccaneers. As a true Vikings fan, I have no confidence in my team to beat the Bucs this week but can see two more likely outcomes. In the first, Zim schemes the crap out of the defense to limit Brady’s output and the Vikings remain competitive and lose in a close one. In this case, I still think that one team gets at least 4 TDs and the other gets close, similar to the Vikings-Seahawks game from earlier this season. In this scenario, it’ll come real close to the 53 total points but might not hit. The other most likely scenario, the Vikings get blown out. This scenario might actually be the best case scenario for the Over, because Kirk “short of the sticks” Cousins and the Vikings love to let it fly when they are down 40-7 in the 4th quarter and pad the stats. The Vikings lead the NFL in 4th quarter scoring for a reason. The final and least likely scenario is the Vikings win. I really only see this scenario coming to pass in a shootout. If you haven’t noticed, Justin Jefferson is very good at catching the football and you can throw on the Bucs. If the Vikings are smart (which they’re not), they’ll try to exploit this matchup and actually get the ball to the Rookie of the Year early and often.

My second teaser of the week features two home underdogs the Giants at home against the Cardinals and the Raiders at home against the Colts. Last week, we stated that there is a lot of value in taking home dogs every week. These two matchups are my favorite home dogs to grab this week and I made it a tad safer by making them a tease. All season, Yank and I have lost by betting on the road favorite that traveled from east to west and vice versa. Additionally, you get the Giants who although not impressive on offense do actually have a really good defensive line against a potentially injured Kyler Murray who’s not running the ball as much anymore. What really sealed the deal for me was that even after an impressive performance against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks the Cards are definitely the public team. 61% of tickets are on the Cardinals in this one. The other matchup features the Raiders who have really disappointed me the last two weeks. They got their doors blown off in ATL and honestly should have lost to the Jets. And yet, here I am, back at it again with the Raiders. As stated above, the main reason is that there is value in taking a home underdog. The Raiders are not as bad as they’ve played over the last two weeks. All signs point to Josh Jacobs being back healthy again this week and I’m expecting the Raiders to get back on track – they’re 5-0 when Josh Jacobs gets to 75 yards. Additionally, the Colts are not travel-proof. For instance, they’re a fumbled snap on the 1 away from losing to the Texans last week. In both cases, I could see the two teams I’m betting on losing, but I think each game will be close and the tease protects me from a back-door cover by the favorites.

My last bet features a returning hero from last week: the Detroit Lions. I’m a little nervous getting back on the board with the Lions this week, so I’m going to pick them to cover the spread and put a taste on the ML. While I do believe the Lions aren’t a great football team, they have some really talented pieces. They’re getting Swift back and teams can run on the Packers. Additionally, the Lions get all the way up for their matchups against the Packers. Earlier this season, I had several Packers fans tell me how the Lions always hang around when it seems like they shouldn’t. This seems like the perfect time to put a small taste on a Lions team that is free from Matt Patricia and a home underdog to a division rival. I’ve never rooted harder for the Lions.

Sam’s Play: $5.00 on the Bucs/Vikings O53 (-105), $7.50 on the Raiders/Giants Teaser (-120), and $4.00/$3.00 on the Detroit Lions+8.5/ML(-110 and +320)

The Bank-Week 14

	Yank	Sam
Starting:	$6.53	$58.59
Risk:	$6.53	$25.10
Potential Earnings:	$5.29	$28.25
Record:	16-32-1	26-31-1
Record against the Spread:	13-22	16-21

Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello