NFL Week 16

Intro by Yank

As you can see by the chart I had my first positive week in quite a while last week. If nothing else sticking to three picks helped protect me from me. Start of a streak or just dumb luck? Let’s find out together.

The Recap

Last week. It was the best of times; it was the worst of times (when it came to our teases and parlays largely on big favorites). By week 15 we know who the good teams are and who the bad teams are, and it seemed like a good week to be riding with the good teams to win. Sam’s Bills hammered the Broncos in The Confrontation and we also both capitalized on the Packers and Colts in our tease for The Collaboration. I also found a couple of winners in my Bucs/Chiefs teaser in The Isolation. On the other hand, Sam once again lost on the Bucs ATS (feels like he’s 0-10 on them this year, more Tompa below) and was on the wrong side of two huge favorites going down for the first time EVER – in NFL history, period – in the Rams and Steelers, crushing what seemed to be an un-lose-able ten-point tease. One day we will learn that when something seems too good to be true it probably is. Hopefully, the good times roll here in Week 16.

The Principles

1. Stay away from bad QBs and bad HCs. Only bet on HCs and Offenses you are confident in.
2. Bet for a team not against their opponent 
3. Parlay (and tease) at your own peril.
4. Due to the salary cap, there isn’t a significant talent gap between the vast majority of NFL teams.
5.  If you’re going to pick a dog Week 1, play the money line.
6. Division games are less predictable than non-division games, due to team/scheme familiarity.

Nominated Principles:

1. Vegas knows better. Some lines don’t look like you think they should – be very careful.

Week 16 Picks

The Collaboration (5-8 ATS; 2-5-1 bonus bets):

Two-Team 6-Point Teaser:

The Chicago Bears-1.5 (was-7.5) @ The Jacksonville Jaguars

The Cincinnati Bengals @ The Houston Texans -1.0 (was -7.0)

Sam: This teaser might look a little unusual at first glance, but it does follow two of our latest strategies. The Texans are the heavy favorite at home against a bad Bengals team and the Jacksonville Jaguars stink and are going against the Bears who have played well recently. I don’t trust the Bears on the road to cover, but they definitely should win. It’s a revolving door at QB in Jacksonville and this week’s lucky winner is long-neck, Mike Glennon… That doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. The Bears DLine can stuff the run and get after the passer. That leaves the Jaguars with no options. Don’t be surprised if the Jags score no points. In the other matchup, you might be worried about the Bengals’ upset of the Steelers. They did run the ball more (and more effectively) than they have all season, but I wouldn’t bank on a coach who waited until week 15 to try something different. Furthermore, Ryan Finley attempted 13 passes last week against the Steelers… I repeat T-H-I-R-T-E-E-N passes. Any self-respecting coach and team will see that on tape and exploit that. Even if you don’t feel confident in Crennel and the Texans as a whole, I understand. I’m skeptical too, but Watson hasn’t quit yet and that’s enough to get me on board. 

Yank: Sam’s case is solid here so I won’t belabor the point too much. As per our losses last week (and yesterday) we are trying to avoid throwing the “never a doubt” teams that everyone and your brother loves in a teaser as much as possible. Houston definitely deserves some skepticism, as a team who fumbled away two chances to beat the Colts in three weeks their stock couldn’t be lower. Meanwhile, the Bengals stock is through the roof after an inexplicable Monday Night performance. I don’t mind a) getting Deshaun Watson who is awesome b) betting the Bengals reality is closer to the team that got destroyed at home by the awful Cowboys than the one that beat the Steelers. That leaves us with the Bears. Every discussion I have heard this week about the Jets losing their shot at the number one pick has mentioned that Jacksonville’s last winnable game is this one this week. In general people (including me), rightfully dislike Trubisky and Nagy, who both definitely stink. I’ll fully admit that this is the riskier of these two matchups, but seeking out some risk as opposed to running scared from good bets is part of the strategy now. 

Sam: While scouring through articles of beat writers for the Bengals, I found some interesting nuggets that should help us feel better about betting on Houston:

“Of the 12 previous teams that won as 14.5-point underdogs and played again the following week (the Dolphins did it in Week 17 last year), only the 1985 Saints and 1992 Colts won again the following week. Nine of the 12 failed to cover.”¹

“The week after pulling an upset as a double-digit underdog in December, teams are 2-14 dating back to 2008. Those teams also went just 5-9-1 against the spread.”²

Yank’s Play: $5.50 on the Bears/Texans Teaser (-122) 

Sam’s Play: $5.00 on the Bears/Texans Teaser (-120)

The Confrontation (7-5 Sam):

The Los Angeles Rams ML @ The Seattle Seahawks-1

Yank: Ah, so we meet again. For whatever reason, all roads seem to lead back to this matchup for Sam and me. Personally, I just can’t quit this Rams team, whereas Sam has never really been a believer. For me, the logic on this one is very straightforward. The Rams are undervalued this week because of their stunning loss to the previously winless Jets. While that performance was concerning, this Rams team reminds me of Tomlin Steelers teams of the mid to late 2010s, who always were great against good teams and lost what felt like at least once a season to someone terrible. McVay may not be good at avoiding a letdown spot, but he is a master motivator for a big game. The winner of this game will almost certainly win the division. 

Sam: Admittedly, I don’t love the Seahawks in Week 16 as much as I did in Week 4. They lost to the Giants and Colt McCoy (😳) not too long ago and let Haskins back into the game last week. Yikes. All that being said, I do find myself leaning towards the Seahawks. Here are the main reasons why: 15, 3, 17, 17. These are the points scored against the Seahawks every week for the last 4 weeks. Sure, they’ve had an easier slate the last couple of weeks, but as we laid out two weeks ago that much-maligned defense to start the season has been better lately, especially in the pass rush. This is a critical point for the Rams. The Rams are going to run the ball, no doubt, but what’s going to happen when they need to throw the ball? I  trust Jared Goff under pressure as much as I trust Kirk Cousins to win my Vikings the Superbowl. On the other side of the field, I get Russell Wilson who knows he can secure the division this week. Give me Russ or give me death.

Yank: I agree the Seahawks recent point totals are concerning but I don’t think I’d be relying on some magical turnaround. My terrible Gmen were able to beat this Seahawks team on the road with an excellent game plan to take away the deep ball on defense and limit mistakes on offense against a beleaguered Seattle defense. The Official team of this blog, the Washington Professional Football Team(™) replicated that exact same formula with DWAYNE HASKINS last week and almost pulled out the W. Now the Rams come to town with the number 4 ranked defense by DVOA led by two of the best defensive players on earth. The Seahawks have been masquerading as a good team for weeks now, and they might have gotten away with it too, but my money is on Aaron Donald to play Scooby Doo and pull that mask off for good this week.

Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Rams ML (+100)

Sam’s Play: $7.00 on the Seahawks-1 (-105)

The Isolation (Yank 7-12; Sam 9-19):

Yank: We detailed our (spoiler alert: losing) picks and rationale in a Special Saturday edition of One Last Line. I’m sticking to three picks per week as mentioned above so I’m just holding out hope my Sunday Collaboration/Confrontation picks come through. 

The Chicago Bears-17.0 @ The Jacksonville Jaguars

Derrick Henry TEN @ GB will have at least 153 Rushing yards (+160)

Two Team 6-point Teaser:

The New York Giants @ The Baltimore Ravens -4.5 (was -10.5)

The Atlanta Falcons @ The Kansas City Chiefs -5 (was -11)

Sam: Unlike Yank, I am going to be unwise and take a couple of extra flyers this week. We already detailed the rationale behind the Bears pick in The Collaboration, but I think there is a real shot at this being a big-time blowout. The Jaguars’ Mike Glennon shouldn’t be a threat and with James Robinson out today, I don’t think the Jaguars will score. I don’t need an offensive explosion, but the Bears have put up over 30 in every game since Trubisky took over and that recipe is repeatable against the Jags.

I basically penciled in this prop bet at the beginning of the season. I’ve maintained all season that the Packers can’t stop the run. It felt like a no-brainer here to take Derrick Henry getting a million yards, so getting him at over 153 yards is definitely worth a rip. Dalvin Cook exposed the Packers earlier this year and the Jaguars were able to hang around with them because of the run game. Derrick Henry is hot, hot, hot, and he’s getting an exploitable matchup. I’m banking on Henry continuing his way of getting better as the season gets longer.

My last Isolation pick of the week is a tease two get two heavy-duty favorites at home that have blowout potential. If you’ve read this blog all season, you know that we love the Chiefs. As outlined a few weeks ago, heavy favorites at home don’t always cover, but they do win. I didn’t love the Chiefs to cover 11 points but still believe they’ll win by a touchdown. The Ravens are a little shaky and should worry you some here. They’ve played better as of late – Lamar’s late-game trip to the toilet against the Browns might have been what the Ravens needed to flush whatever was clogging up the works in that offense. The Ravens are on the outside of the playoff bracket, but can still get in with wins and help. I expect them to be motivated and ready to go. Meanwhile on the other side of the field, the Giants are not putting Danny Dimes in a position to succeed. He clearly struggled after coming back from injury and they’re about to feed him to the wolves again. I like betting on good teams and I like betting on them against bad teams.

Sam’s Play: $3.00 on the Bears-17 (+240), $3.00 Derrick Henry O153 rush yards (+160), and $5.00 the Chiefs/Ravens Teaser (-120)

The Bank-Week 16

	Yank	Sam
Starting:	$0.00	$39.31
Risk:	$15.50	$29.00
Potential Earnings:	$14.50	$32.04
Record:	18-34-1	27-35-1
Record against the Spread:	13-23	18-21

Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello

References

1. “Ryan Finley, Gio Bernard, Zac Taylor help make history: Bengals Final Thoughts” by Jay Morrison of The Athletic, , Dec. 22, 2020. https://theathletic.com/2279476/2020/12/22/ryan-finley-gio-bernard-zac-taylor-help-make-history-cincinnati-bengals-final-thoughts-pittsburgh-steelers/.
2. “Did upset reveal Zac Taylor’s foundation or fool’s gold? This Week in Bengals” by Paul Dehner Jr. of The Athletic, Dec 23, 2020. https://theathletic.com/2281285/2020/12/23/did-upset-reveal-zac-taylors-foundation-or-fools-gold-this-week-in-cincinnati-bengals-pittsburgh-steelers/.