NFL Week 17

Intro by Sam

The time has come… We have reached Week 17, the final week of regular-season NFL football. We will retire our Season Progress after next week but keep your eyes peeled for some playoff picks. Before we get into the wacky picks of Week 17, let’s recap.

The Recap

It was a bloody and bruising week for Yank and me during Week 16. We both had picks that we chose to die on instead of listening to other opinions. For me, I thought there was no way that the Bengals would be able to repeat their winning performance (but I didn’t consider how bad the Texans’ defense is). That blew up our *almost* achievable two-team teaser in The Collaboration that featured the losing Texans and the winning Bears. Yank instilled confidence in me that the 49ers were dead and that the Cardinals needed to win. Well, the 49ers ended up looking like the team that needed to win-and-get-in and they beat the Cardinals, blowing up our chances to hit either of our picks in Saturday’s Edition of One Last Line featuring our Isolation picks. More of the Cardinals this week… ugh.

I managed to muster out a win in our Confrontation pick, as I correctly selected the Seahawks to beat the Rams. This leaves us at an even split when it comes to Rams-Seahawks games this season and firmly ensconced in our takes about both teams. In my Sunday Isolation picks, I lost a close prop bet featuring Derrick Henry getting over 153 yards against the Packers. Henry tried, but the Titans defense couldn’t stop Rodgers or Adams all night which opened up a big-time early lead for the Packers, mostly eliminating the running game for the Titans. I also lost a close teaser featuring the Ravens and the Chiefs, with the Chiefs’ offense leaving a million points on the board against the Falcons. I was able to salvage some semblance of an even week by correctly picking the Bears to smoke the Jaguars. I juiced the line to -17 and connected on +240 odds, much like Trubisky finding Jimmy Graham in the back of the endzone.

There’s not a lot to write home about from last week, but we are excited to finish this marathon slog through bad picks and bad breaks. Week 17, here we come!

The Principles

1. Stay away from bad QBs and bad HCs. Only bet on HCs and Offenses you are confident in.
2. Bet for a team not against their opponent 
3. Parlay (and tease) at your own peril.
4. Due to the salary cap, there isn’t a significant talent gap between the vast majority of NFL teams.
5.  If you’re going to pick a dog Week 1, play the money line.
6. Division games are less predictable than non-division games, due to team/scheme familiarity.

Nominated Principles:

1. Vegas knows better. Some lines don’t look like you think they should – be very careful.

Week 17 Picks

The Collaboration (5-8 ATS; 2-6-1 bonus bets):

The New Orleans Saints @ The Carolina Panthers+6

Yank: There and back again, the story of our season. All the way back in week one I advocated for taking the Panthers as underdogs at home on the strength of Matt Rhule’s coaching ability. Now we find ourselves in week 17, without much we can count on as many teams are resting starters. I feel pretty confident that we can count on a Matt Rhule team to play hard, and that is the rock on which we are building this bet. Rhule was clear after the victory last week over the Football Team their focus is on being a winning football team (pun intended) and that these last few games are important to their players and the program they are trying to build. The Saints on the other hand do not have a ton to play for playoff seeding wise, and while they certainly will be trying to win, they have a 40-year-old QB with rib fractures, are missing their top two WRs, all their RBs, and frankly could probably use some rest. I think the Panthers win this one but I’m happy to take the 6 point cushion. 

Sam: Yank covers just about everything you need to know for this bet. The Panthers have been sneaky competitive all season, despite being an overall poor team this season. They are currently 9-6 ATS but sit at 5-10 overall. I’ve kept a close eye on them this season and that ATS record makes sense. For the most part, they don’t make enough plays to win the game but are well-coached enough, talented enough, etc. to cover, and hell, they might even win this week as well. The last time these two teams played, the Panthers had an opportunity to tie or win the game on the last drive. A sack and a 65-yard field goal coming up short at the last minute led to another close loss for the Panthers. It’s been that kind of season for them, but to Yank’s point, they’re trying to build a competitive culture. I like the Panthers in this spot.

Yank’s Play: $5.50 on the Panthers+6(-110) 

Sam’s Play: $11.00 on the Panthers+6(-120)

The Confrontation (9-5 Sam):

The Arizona Cardinals-3 @ the Los Angeles Rams+3

Sam: I’ll be the first to tell you – bet the Rams this week. I’ve bet on the Cardinals a million times this season and they’ve always killed me. You can never count on them to do what they’re good at and it can lead to success but also leaves you feeling like an idiot. With that in mind, who am I to go against my personal principles? I don’t believe in the Rams. Sean McVay’s incredible offense managed an efficient 9 points against the Seahawks. This week they’re without Goff (who stinks) and Cooper Kupp. I guess you could argue, you can only go up from Goff, but we outlined DiNucci’s Law in Week 9 and John Wolford’s LinkedIn page seems to indicate that he’s not sure he can crack a 53-man roster in a non-Covid year. The Cardinals have to win, somehow even more than the Rams and they have healthier weapons available to them this week than the Rams do. Give me the Cards in this one. 

Yank: I’m not going to talk this one to death, if you are still reading this you know how I feel about the Rams, who I have backed 7 times on this blog already. For the record even with the loss last week I am 4-2-1 on the Rams specifically which if you compare to the rest of my record below is a noticeable disparity. Everyone loves to talk about the Rams offense, but the Rams defense is the real story this year, the best and most innovative unit in the league, led by first-year DC Brandon Staley.¹ This is a reach down into your guts pick for me – gun to your head who is winning this game, Kliff Kingsbury who has been uneven at best and terrible at worst, or Sean McVay who has been to the Super Bowl? Only one of us gets Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey for this matchup. Happily mark me down to be on their side. 

Yank’s Play: $5.50 on the Rams+3 (-110)

Sam’s Play: $5.50 on the Cardinals-3 (-110)

The Isolation (Yank 7-13; Sam 10-22):

The (Zombie) Pittsburgh Steelers @ The Cleveland Browns Total 43.5

Yank: Death, taxes, the Browns not scoring much in the winter. They are apt for the occasional random explosion, but they have scored less than 20 in 5 of their last 8 games in cold weather. Meanwhile, the Steelers can barely score when they play all their starters, and we all saw Mason Rudolph throw ducks left, right, and center last year. It is going to be 40 and rainy on Sunday in Cleveland. It would be very Browns to drop their last two against the hapless Jets and the Steelers backups to impossibly lengthen their playoff drought. I think it’s more likely that this game follows the exact script from the Browns SNF game against my Gmen, and a different backup QB. Grind out rushing TDs, play good red zone D, keep the clock moving. That game ended 20-6 Browns. 42-0 Browns (definitely in play also) still covers for me here. 

Yank’s Play: $5.50 on Browns/Steelers U43.5

The Green Bay Packers @ The Chicago Bears+4.5 (-110)

The New Orleans Saints @ The Carolina Panthers ML

Sam: This game was a stay away for me most of the week, but after thinking through this matchup, I like the Bears to cover here. The Bears offense finally looks decent (although it could be because they’ve played the Texans, Vikings, and Jags defenses) and the Bears defense has been awesome all season. The Packers are certainly playing to win; they want to secure the one-seed I’m sure. The Bears, however, need to win in order to make it to the playoffs. I like that psychological edge and will be crossing my fingers that Trubisky doesn’t return to form. It’ll be a long game if that happens.

Additionally, I wanted to throw a taste on the Panthers’ ML. In The Collaboration, I actually outlined all of the reasons to NOT bet the ML, but after the news broke about the Saints missing all of their RBs, resting several key starters, combined with the fact that they can’t move up to the one-seed, it felt like a risk I am willing to take. Finally, it’s the last week of the season, I’m down +$60 this year, and I want to try to climb back up to some modicum of respectability. Deliver me some cash Teddy!

Sam’s Play: $5.50 on the Bears+4.5 (-110) and $5.00 on the Panthers ML (+220)

The Bank-Week 17

	Yank	Sam
Starting:	$0.00	$39.31
Risk:	$16.50	$29.00
Potential Earnings:	$14.58	$32.04
Record:	18-36-1	29-38-1
Record against the Spread:	13-24	19-21

Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello

References

1. “Rams’ playoff hopes now depend upon Brandon Staley’s boundary-pushing defense” by Robert Mays of The Athletic, , Dec. 30, 2020. https://theathletic.com/2292820/2020/12/30/rams-playoffs-defense-brandon-staley/#click=https://t.co/g3H7AYU77g.