Intro by Yank
| Sam | Yank | |
| Playoff Record | 3-4 | 5-3 |
| Record ATS | 2-3 | 4-2 |
| Current Balance | -$7.60 | $5.51 |
Day two of one of the best weekends of the year is upon us. We’ve got a rematch between teams that everyone expected to be here, and a team nobody expected to make it this far facing the defending champs. The only thing I am sure about is that something nobody expects to happen is going to swing one of these games. If yesterday was any indication, the gambling may be bad (certainly from my end), but the football will be good. Today I’m not trying to be a hero, let’s see if we can just make some money.
Power Rankings
| Sam | Yank |
| 1. Chiefs 2. Packers 3. Bills 4. Saints 5. Ravens 6. Bucs 7. Rams 8. Browns | 1. Chiefs 2. Packers 3. Saints 4. Ravens 5. Bills 6. Rams 7. Bucs 8. Browns |
| Super Bowl Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs Green Bay Packers | Super Bowl Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs LA Rams |
| Winner: Green Bay Packers | Winner: Kansas City Chiefs |
Sunday Divisional Round Picks
Sam: I’m going with perhaps an unusual pick in this matchup, given our propensity to bet all things Chiefs. I am going to take the Browns+7.5. It’s a risky bet, but I really like the Browns running game vs the Kansas City Chiefs defense. Earlier in the year, Yank thought he had a never-a-doubt bet when the Chiefs played the Broncos. Well, the Broncos rushed for 179 yards and just barely edged out the Chiefs in TOP. The Broncos didn’t win that day, but they did send Yank and a lot of people who had the Chiefs-13 home with empty wallets. Yank texted me after that game and said “make a note that you can run on the Chiefs.” That was after the Raiders had galloped all over them twice too. Note made.
In this game, the Browns have a two-headed nightmare in the backfield with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, but it doesn’t stop there. The offensive line that was a disaster last year is one of the best units in football this year. They’re effective in the run game but even better in pass protection. With a well designed run game, you can actually take advantage of a defense in the passing game. By all accounts, Baker has improved as a passer under Head Coach Kevin Stefanski. He has upped the number of play-action passes the Browns run per game and has found that Baker is more comfortable booting to his left – a somewhat unusual maneuver for a right-handed quarterback. Stefanski isn’t afraid to make adjustments either, earlier this season the Browns were running a ton of bootlegs, but towards the end of the season ramped up the play-action.1 With a strong ground game and an effective passing game, I expect the Browns to be able to compete. The Chiefs will be able to put up points, especially with some key injuries on defense, but the Browns offense isn’t something to scoff at either.
Yank: I agree with basically everything Sam has to say about this one. The way to get to the Chiefs is absolutely by keeping the ball away from their offense and more importantly scoring (somehow the coaches forget about that second part a lot). The Browns running game is one of the best in the league and should help with both of those goals. On the coaching front, Stefanski has done a great job all year long, and the evidence of that was on display for everyone to see last week as they dismantled the Steelers even with significant COVID setbacks. Finally, 9-to-10 points seem like a lot for the Chiefs to cover against anyone based on the way they played down the stretch.
Here’s the thing-as we’ve proven countless times I am dumb and bad at gambling. The Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes, last seen in the divisional round putting up 51 straight points after going down 24-0. Somehow more public tickets (53%) are on the Browns in this game as of this morning. It’s by no means overwhelming but still, it seems like everyone expects this to be a high scoring back and forth game. If I’ve learned one thing this season it’s that what everyone expects is almost never right. I’m going to put several different wagers on this game to try to make some money back from yesterday, including laying the points with the Chiefs.
Yank’s Picks: $5.50 on the Chiefs-9(-110), $6.00 on Chiefs-2.5/Saints+3 Parlay(-120), $1 each on Chubb/Hunt/Hooper/Landry/Mayfield/Njoku to score first Browns TD (all +900 or more)*
Sam’s Picks: $5.00 on the Browns+7.5(-105)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ The New Orleans Saints-3
Yank: On its face this game looks too easy. These two teams played twice and the Saints won in two blowouts, they have the Bucs number. Moreover this game is being played in New Orleans. The confusing part for me is that the conventional wisdom seems to be with the road warrior Bucs due to some combination of the Brady magic/it’s really tough to beat a good team 3 times/Brees looks washed narratives. I’m not going to talk this one to death because I think both arguments make sense. Ultimately this seems like a gut feel game. For me, Sean Payton is the better head coach, and the Saints run the better scheme. Brady and Brees essentially cancel out. The defenses essentially cancel out. Taysom Hill being out is honestly likely a good thing for the Saints offense. There’s definitely a chance the Super Bucs show up here and put on a show in this game. But the equally likely feeling chance that Bucs-Bad Version (™) shows up is what tips me over the edge into the Saints column (sorry New Orleans fans).
Sam: I’m with Yank on this one – there’s not a whole lot to write home about. After trying to find different angles all week on how the Bucs could possibly upset the Saints this week, I was left with a very basic, vanilla takeaway: its going to come down to execution. In the first matchup between these two teams, the Bucs had a nice drive to start but then fell behind after a few miscues from Brady and the receivers as well as special teams. In the second matchup, the offense couldn’t get out of its own way again. A few penalties, drops and misplaced balls, kept the Bucs from even sniffing points. They went 3 and out on their first 4 possessions and thanks to two Brady interceptions, the offense only had one drive out of seven that went for more than 3 plays in the first half. Needless to say that put their defense at a decided disadvantage and the Bucs fell down 28-0 at the half.
So where does “executing better” leave you when you’re trying to pick a side? I guess with the team that has executed better more frequently throughout the season: the Saints. As much as I want to pick the Bucs for a 3rd time, I can’t justify it. Poor execution has haunted the Bucs throughout the season. Whether its penalties, missed connections between Brady and his receivers, or an over-aggressive defensive game plan, the Bucs haven’t been consistent. Yes, they finished the year off strong with a win-streak, but they didn’t play any playoff teams after losing to the Rams and Chiefs in back-to-back weeks. As Yank points out, the Super Bucs can certainly show up – and since I’ve picked the Saints, I have no doubt that they will – but thats why its called gambling.
Yank’s Picks: $5.50 on the Saints-2.5(-110), $6.00 on Chiefs-2.5/Saints+3 parlay (-120)
Sam’s Picks: $5.00 on the Saints-3 (+100)
The Bank
| Yank | Sam | |
| Risk: | $23.00 | $10.00 |
| Potential Earnings: | $15.00+$5.00* | $9.76 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
References
- Jason Lloyd of The Athletic, “The key factor behind Baker Mayfield’s breathtaking turnaround,” 12-21-2020, https://theathletic.com/2275755/2020/12/21/browns-baker-mayfield-kevin-stefanski/
One Last Line 