Intro
The 2020 NFL season is finally here! In a year that has lasted way too long, it’s nice to have a little reprieve and a return to *some* normalcy for us sports fans.
For the last several years, I (Sam) have dabbled in the sports betting arena. I never really saw myself as a gambler, but after listening to so many podcasts (namely the Bill Simmons’ Podcast) and mulling it over, I thought what the hell, I basically live and breathe sports news and information. Like many of you, I spout my (un)informed (half-baked) opinions on which teams are good and which are trash like they are the truth. Gambling was pretty straightforward and I soon realized that the experience only enhanced the peaks and valleys that every sports fan is far too familiar with. Last year I moved to New York City and had a little more time on my hands, so I started to formalize some opinions and strategies and share my weekly NFL bets with some buddies. I can talk and talk and talk about sports, so this year I wanted to take the next step and publicly share some of my thoughts, opinions, and most importantly my weekly bets for the season.
One of the buddies I referred to earlier, Yank, and I have gone back and forth on bets for basically as long as I have been gambling and so it was only natural that we work together on this project. Yank lives and works in Indiana, the second state where sports betting was legalized which was too good of an opportunity to pass up. Much like me, he likes to put a couple Greg’s on a game to reinforce his loud opinions now and again. He’s resigned to Giants, Mets and Notre Dame football fandom so don’t expect him to start winning now. You’ll like him.
Instead of keeping our picks and conversation to the iMessage thread, we are going to produce this blog post weekly for the duration of the season. Now with some of the background out of the way, we wanted to lay out the groundwork for this schtick.
The Rules
We are both relatively wimpy gamblers, but we both love winning and it doesn’t matter if it’s $5 or $100. We throw a little cash here and there on some bets but don’t ever really bet big. So, the schtick is, we are each going to start with $100 at the beginning of the season and see where we end up. The idea is that if we somehow get to $0 before the end of the season, we’re out, so you won’t see us tossing around big chunks of change early. Additionally, we’ve built in a little competition too, because someone always has to win. Every week we will each pick three bets as follows:
- The Collaboration – This is a consensus pick between the two of us. Throughout the season, we usually identify some guiding principles and strategies with varying degrees of success (Yank: can’t stress varying enough). You will see a lot of those come up in the discussion of this pick.
- The Confrontation – This pick will always be a bet on the spread and we have to disagree about which side we are on. Historically we bet together on principles, so this pick will have the most intriguing impact on our totals this season.
- The Isolation – The third pick will actually be separate bets for the two of us. We will both pick individual games to focus on and go back and forth about the risks and pros for each bet. These bets can be on the spread, ML, points totals, etc.
We are hoping to have this blog come out Sunday morning, just in time to gear up for a Sunday afternoon full of football. Feel free to play along with us, but keep in mind that may be bad for your wallet. As the season progresses, we will layout various Principles. Many will start as nominated principles and will either get pulled down or solidified throughout the season. Additionally, we will provide an update on our totals at the beginning of each new week.
The Principles
- Stay away from bad QBs and bad HCs.
- Parlay (and tease) at your own peril.
- Due to the salary cap, there isn’t a significant talent gap between the vast majority of NFL teams.
Nominated Principles:
- Week 1 is a good week to play underdogs because people are overzealous about favorites.
- Don’t chase your opinion about a team with bets.
Week 1 Picks
The Collaboration:
The Philadelphia Eagles @ The Washington Football Team+6 (-120)
Sam: After a lot of back and forth, Yank and I settled on WFT +6 at home against the Eagles. If you had told me I’d be putting money on Dwayne Haskins a week ago, I would have laughed in your face (wearing a mask of course). Essentially, a couple of major points came into play here to turn me around: 1.) It’s a division game, and those are almost always close. For instance, last season the WFT covered this line in their week 1 matchup and would have in the 2nd matchup, if it hadn’t been for a fumble return TD with 6 seconds left. 2.) Are we sure the Eagles are actually any better this season? And even though the jury is out on Haskins, Riverboat Ron is a professional HC and they have some potential game-wreckers on defense (cue the Chase Young 6 sack, 3 FF game). 3.) Vegas knows best. I’ll leave that one to Yank.
Yank: Hello, welcome to our blog. Our first bet is on a team called the “football team” – what a concept! Ironically, that team was really bad at football last year. We are dumb and bad at gambling, never forget it. But in all seriousness, the reason to like this pick is simple (along with Sam’s rationale above). People think the Eagles are good, people think the Football Team is really bad. People are dumb just like Sam and me. At the time of writing, 63% of the public has bet on the Eagles to cover the 6 pt spread and the line went down(!) to Eagles by 5.5, essentially asking for more bets on the Eagles. Why do the sportsbooks want people to bet on the Eagles? (maybe they’re not actually good, maybe the WFT is actually just bad and not really bad, maybe both?) I’m smart enough to know if the sportsbooks want me to be on one side, I want to be on the other. It might just be the week of the underdog.
Yank’s Play: $5.95 on the Washington Football Team+6(-120)
Sam’s Play: $5.00 on the Washington Football Team+6(-120)
The Confrontation:
Dallas Cowboys-3 @ Los Angeles Rams
Yank: Now here is a game that you were more likely to be expecting! The first one that jumped out to me this week is the Cowboys, the quintessential public team, laying 3, on the road in Stan Kroenke-world. Does any team have more hype than the Cowboys coming into this year? I’m expecting the Cowboys to do what they are best at, underwhelm relative to expectations and disappoint their fans. The three points are just a nice bonus.
Sam: I am alllllll aboard the Cowboys hype train. I believe in Dak (and his OLine), I believe in their weapons, and I think the defense has the potential to be really good this year. But what is maybe more important than that is, what inspires you about the Rams? Did they get better in the offseason? The defense obviously has some players, but who is blocking for Jared Goff? I mean, I remember that guy going back and forth with Mitch Trubisky last year… and not in a good way. He stinks, the Rams stink, let’s go Cowboys!
Yank: The OL is a fair point but I think these teams are more equivalent at the skill positions than you’d think at first glance; Cam Akers was a top 5 recruit in a horrible situation at FSU in college and the Rams wideouts are perpetually underrated. Do we think Sean McVay forgot how to coach? I’m not sure Mike McCarthy remembered how to coach even before there were no preseason games. Give me the team with the offensive continuity and the best defensive player in the world. This game will almost certainly be a shootout, I’m happy to lock in the team playing a night game to open their brand new stadium who I think will win outright. Week of the UNDERDOG!
Sam: Last year the Cowboys kicked the crap out of the Rams 44-21, with Jalen Ramsey. Is a new RB (who is currently 3rd on the official depth chart) enough to change the outcome of this game? I do think McVay is a great coach, but there is no improvement on defense from what I can tell and Jared Goff is still the QB. For Dallas, I fully expect CeeDee Lamb to be awesome (in addition to Amari Cooper), Dak is in a contract year, and anybody is better than Jason Garret. Onn defense, they’ve brought in a game-wrecker in Everson Griffen and I think did well to draft Trevon Diggs. The only reason this bet doesn’t hit is if the Cowboys go full Cowboys.
Yank’s Play: $5.88 on the Rams+3(-118)
Sam’s Play: $5.00 on the Cowboys-3(+115)
The Isolation:
Las Vegas Raiders @ Carolina Panthers+3
Yank: I should start this by admitting that I am a huge Matt Rhule/Joe Brady guy. That could absolutely be misguided and teams with new coaches this year are likely to struggle more than most as stated above. But…
- Raiders coming east for an early kickoff
- Paul Guenther is somehow still the DC (31st in defensive DVOA in 2019)
- Teddy Bridgewater may in fact be better than Derek Carr (and CMC is the best player in the game)
- Jon Gruden is 3-9 straight up in his career on Week 1
And we are GETTING 3 points? Knock on wood if you’re with me. (WEEK OF THE UNDERDOG!)
Yank’s play: $5.68 on the Panthers+3(-114)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+3.5 @ New Orleans Saints
Sam: First and foremost, I am a believer in Tompa Bay. I mean what’s the fear here? That a 6-time Super Bowl champion who does nothing but think about football 24/7 won’t be on the same page as his receivers? Or that a 6-time super bowl champion is going to fall off of a cliff? As to the first point, this guy has historically over-performed with aging and inconsistent weapons. You’re putting one of the sport’s greatest competitors with arguably the most talented receiving/playmaking core he has played with since either peak Gronk or peak Randy Moss (and we all know how that ended). As to the second point, you’re replacing a 30 – and that is not a typo – THIRTY interception QB with Tom freaking Brady. Even if he does decline, you don’t think he can manage a game better than Jameis Winston? C’mon.
Now that I have addressed why we should all be on the Bucs train, I want to mention one fact and one opinion about the Saints. For some reason, I’ve felt like this team has started slow or had some weird-ass game to start the season for the last 5 years, so I went back and checked. Here are the results:
2019: W vs. Texans 30-28, 1-1 to start the season.
2018: L vs. Bucs 48 – 40, 0-1 to start the season.
2017: L vs. Vikings 29-29, 0-2 to start the season.
2016: L vs. Raiders 35-34, 0-3 to start the season.
2015: L vs. Raiders 31-19, 0-3 to start the season.
In fairness, my memory was a bit off last year, but nevertheless, they probably didn’t cover that game either. So history shows they start poorly, that’s fact one. My opinion on this one is that the Saints hype train is a little too much for me. Yes, they have the weapons and a good defense, blah blah blah. I just don’t know if Brees has the arm anymore and if Kamara’s contract is going to be an issue. Maybe it’s just the way that their last few playoff appearances have ended, but I’m skeptical that this team is on the precipice of falling off.
Sam’s Play: $5.00 on the Bucs+3.5(-115)
The Bank-Week 1
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $100 | $100 |
| Risk: | $17.51 | $15 |
| Potential Earnings: | $15.00 | $14.27 |
| Ending Balance: | $82.49 | $85 |
| Record: | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 
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