Intro by Yank
We’ve reached the dog days of October my friends, and don’t look now, but my underdog-centric strategy continues to pay dividends. Can I keep dialing up winners like AirBud or will I be howling at the moon by month’s (weeks?) end?
The Recap
Before we go forward let’s take a look back. In last week’s Collaboration, we chose to back the Steelers and a guy I referred to as “brainless Ben Roethlisberger” in this very blog. Unsurprisingly we should have backed the team with a brain. You live and learn. In The Confrontation, we continued what seems like a never-ending streak of betting Rams games. This time Sam was on the Rams and that spelled their downfall to red-hot Kyler Murray and the Cards. Our “division games are unpredictable” theory strikes again. Finally, in The Isolation, I backed America’s team, the New York Jets, in a pick I hated the second I made it, but that the strategies really believed in. As usual the strategies are smarter than me and the Jets came through. Meanwhile, Sam’s run of bad luck continued as his boy Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out of the game against the Ravens. Once Drew Lock entered it was, um…a lock that his Broncos pick was going down.
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
Week 5 Picks
The Collaboration (2-2):
The Philadelphia Eagles+3 @ the Carolina Panthers (-115)
Sam: *Sniff sniff* what’s that smell? A little sharp cheddar on the Eagles line? This line opened at Eagles+4. After a week of betting, with anywhere from 60-77% of the money on the Panthers, the line moved back towards the Eagles to +3. Very curious. So curious that it falls into our auto-bet scenario. We think that the sharps moved this one and we want a piece of it.
Yank: Bet it and forget it, friends. Sam smelled this one out and I was happy to come along for the ride. We told you we were going to auto-bet these starting with our Saints pick in week one. People smarter than us think the Eagles have a shot. Everyone and their brother seems to think the Panthers are for real. Meanwhile, Sam Darnold is still their QB, Mccaffrey may not play, and all their corners either arrived a week ago or are hurt. Happy to take a spin of the wheel here with the Eagles at plus odds.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Eagles ML (+145)
Sam’s Play: $5.00 on the Eagles ML (+140)
The Confrontation (Yank 4-0; Sam 0-4):
The Green Bay Packers @ the Cincinnati Bengals+3 (-110)
Yank: Admittedly this one is a bit of a shot in the dark. This year my eye is drawn to these short underdogs at home because I feel like we bet the packers type team in this situation last year a bunch and lost a bunch. Line movement has seemed to validate this theory somewhat, with the overwhelming majority of the money coming in on the packers this line ticked down slightly from Bengals+3.5 to Bengals+3 which is promising based on our strategies. This Bengals team has also been better than expected, particularly offensively, and should be able to put up points in this game. The Packers may turn out to be a juggernaut who blasts mediocre teams like this, and admittedly that makes me a little scared of this pick. That may be the best argument for it, as picks I don’t really love have come through over and over again so far this year.
Sam: Yank is right to point out that the line movement in this matchup has the Bengals falling perfectly into our strategy for this season. The sharps have seemingly liked the Bengals all year as every week the line seems to have shifted in their direction or at least stayed put. Furthermore, the Bengals are actually playing pretty well currently 3-1 on the season. That being said, I like the Packers in this one. If the models are factoring in their Week 1 performance, it makes sense that models might like the Bengals in this one, but I’m betting that their Week 1 performance is an outlier. Rodgers has shown that he still has that magic touch and can put away anybody. On the other side of the field, the Bengals as I mentioned have looked pretty good until you realize that they’ve played the Vikings, Bears, Steelers, and Jaguars. Those 4 teams have a combined 4 wins. According to our friends at Football Outsiders, this has them playing the 31st hardest schedule to date. Note: there are 32 teams in the NFL. I like the Packers to win this one, so let’s see if I can finally get in the winner’s column for the Confrontation this season.
Yank’s Play: $5.00 on the Bengals+3.5 (-125)
Sam’s Play: $5.75 on the Packers-3 (-115)
The Isolation (Yank 1-3; Sam 1-3):
The New England Patriots @ the Houston Texans+8.5 (-115)
Sam: So two things that pass the initial check for me here: 1. I hate this bet and per Yank’s principles, this is good. 2. 4 of 5 starting offensive linemen will be out for the Patriots this week. Let me repeat that one more time: 4 out of 5 starting offensive linemen will be out for the Patriots this week. If you have Damian Harris in fantasy football, you know that the Patriots OL has not played up to their billing thus far, and its hard enough for teams to have a good starting 5, let alone 1 good backup. We’re asking the Patriots to go into Houston with 4 backup linemen starting. Consider me skeptical. That being said, the Texans have Davis Mills starting at QB. He stinks. I’m not encouraged by the Texans offense, but I’m hoping the defense can dial up the pressure and make this the worlds boringest 6-0 game. There are few things I believe are more important than having a good OL. We’re testing the strength of that belief today.
Sam’s Play: $5.75 on the Texans+8.5 (-115)
The Chicago Bears+5.5 @ the Las Vegas Raiders
Yank: I have to admit when I saw this line I was shocked it wasn’t Raiders by 6-7. The Bears looked good last week but they were taking on the hapless Lions. Meanwhile, just a week ago I was being force-fed a narrative about how great this Raiders offense is. Now this line tells me the Raiders are only 2.5 points better than the Bears on a neutral field? However, the money is all over the Raiders and this line has not moved an inch. That signals to me my take that the Raiders should be bigger favorites is a public opinion, while the smart people favor the Bears. As is my custom this year I am going to steer into my dislike. If Justin “Soldier” Fields and the offense can put up some points with Bill Lazor (instead of terrible Matt Nagy) calling the plays, this defense should be good enough to hold down the Raiders. Knock on wood if you’re with me.
Yank’s Play: $4.00 on the Bears ML (+210)
The Bank-Week 5
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $116.10 | $69.00 |
| Risk: | $14.00 | $16.50 |
| Potential Earnings: | $21.65 | $17.00 |
| Record: | 7-5 | 3-10 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 5-0 | 1-7 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 