Intro by Sam
Merry Christmas and a happy betting ticket to all! Christmas came early for your boys last week as we woke up to find Santa delivered in bulk. It had been a rough stretch the prior weeks, but we were bound to finally find ourselves on the nice list. Let’s take a look at all the goodies in our stockings.
The Recap
First and foremost, we made OLL history with our largest wagers on the Bengals. While our stink tried as it might to keep us on the naughty list in the first half, the Bucs ultimately came through with their true colors in the 2nd to help deliver both the ML win for Yank and myself as well as the over on my adjusted spread of Bengals-9.5.
We had a little more mixed reviews with our other Collaboration picks. Saturday’s law split the difference when Desmond Ridder and the Falcons covered the spread, but couldn’t finish the job against the Saints. Meanwhile, the Patriots chose to lose in the most hysterical way possible. It could be argued that it was a seriously bad beat given the bozo review that confirmed the touchdown and, of course, the ending lateral gone wrong. But honestly, it was so funny to see Belichick lose in that fashion that it truly made it okay.
Finally, in our Isolation picks, Yank had the biggest present under the tree with a win straight up on the Steelers spread and fancy Steelers/Bengals ML parlay. On my end, the Titans did enough to deliver me a push, which probably amounts to unwrapping underwear on Christmas morning as a kid; helpful, but overall kind of lame.
Let’s see what Santa has in store for the boys this week.
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
- Auto bet the underdog when the line moves towards the underdog despite the majority of the money being on the favorite.
- When in doubt go against conventional wisdom/the worst gambler you know
Week 16 Picks
The Collaboration (Yank 14-32-1; Sam 22-34):
The Cincinnati Bengals-3 @ The New England Patriots
Yank: Ho ho ho, Merry Christmas Eve to all. So many wonderful sights and sounds on the holidays. As we gather with family and friends it can truly be an assault on the senses. What’s that, you say, there’s a scent in the air? Something smells totally out of whack? Never fear dear reader, that’s not a problem at your holiday gathering, it’s the stench of this point spread wafting through from the 1pm window of games. The Bengals, who are hotter than the chestnuts over your open fire, and are in the race for 1-seed in the AFC are only 3pt favorites on the road against Patricia and the putrid Patriots? This number flat out stinks folks. I don’t have any analysis to give you about the teams or the coaches, but Bengals to cover seems like free money. That’s never a good sign, and so I’m turning tail like the Grinch headed back up the chimney. Give me the Pats to make it ugly and keep it close.
Sam: Well, I’ll need my 5th eggnog of the day to bet on the Patriots again. How in the world are the Bengals only favored by 3 in this one? It would take a Christmas miracle for the Patriots to cover 3 points, let alone make this an interesting game, but hark! The Herald Angels are singing a song of the sharps. Take the Patriots ML they say, and we did as the Angels commanded.
Yank’s Pick: $5.50 on the Patriots+3 (-110)
Sam’s Pick: $5.50 on the Patriots+3 (-110)
The Detroit Lions-2.5 @ The Carolina Panthers
Sam: As youth, we would close our eyes and sleep, hard as it might be, knowing Santa’s presents were waiting for us in the morning. Well we’re taking a similar approach to this matchup. We’re closing our eyes on the teams in this matchup and trusting the strategies’ trusty red-nose will lead Yank and I to stuffed stockings. The tickets are all on the Lions while the money is on the Panthers. Believe in the 3 wisemen, the sharps, and take the Panthers and the points.
Yank: It’s like the stormy night where Rudolph first made his presence known. I can’t see much, I can direct traffic even less, the fog has taken over all. That said, like Sam mentioned I can follow the light. The lights, the percentages and the money are all pointed towards Carolina. Any time a bet seems too easy for the general public, line me up with the sharps and the casinos. Keep pounding Panthers.
Yank’s Pick: $4.00 on the Panthers ML (+124)
Sam’s Pick: $4.00 on the Panthers ML (+124)
Tease Killer Of The Week:
The Washington Commanders+7 @ The San Francisco 49ers
Yank: The danger of short-sightedness is another holiday theme; everyone knows old Ebeneezer Scrooge should have spent less time counting coppers and more time counting his blessings. I think the general public has spent the last few weeks focused on all the reasons to be excited about Brock Purdy and all the ways he can help the Niners. But from my perspective there’s a big picture reason he was the last pick in the draft, he’s not very good at football over a large sample size. The Washington front four is fearsome and is getting Chase Young back this week. Washington desperately needs this game while the Niners have effectively already clinched a playoff spot. If Ron Rivera doesn’t totally bungle this I think the C words have a decent chance to pull out a W in this one, and I’ll happily take the 7 points.
Sam: We’re serving up a classic for Christmas. Yes, betting on this one is a potential Christmas-ruiner. We made money all last season betting on underdogs that felt like they had no chance. This is one of those matchups. The perception is that the 49ers are so dominant and going to steamroll everyone, but outside of a first half romp of the Bucs, their offense hasn’t been as explosive as you think it should be. While we love a Saturday’s law bet on this blog, Purdy has seen the field a few weeks now, and give teams tape and they’ll find your weakness. We think that with the front 4 of Washington, Purdy will experience pressure on a whole new level.
Yank’s Pick: $5.30 on the Commanders+6.5 (-106) and $2.00 on the Commanders ML (+245)
Sam’s Pick: $5.30 on the Commanders+6.5 (-106) and $2.00 on the Commanders ML (+245)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers-8 @ The Arizona Cardinals
Sam: Speaking of Saturday’s Law, we’re betting Trace McSorley to be simultaneously not as bad as everyone expects and for the Bucs to never beat anyone by more than 3 points. As we pointed out last week, we made a commitment to fade the Bucs down the stretch. Whatever is going on in that locker room is disastrous. Because of that, we’re officially putting them on the naughty list.
Yank: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the true coal in the stocking this Christmas. They were winning 17-0 and managed to turn the ball over three times in a quarter to totally blow the game just last week. You may not remember, because they do stuff like that literally every week. Meanwhile this line is super high because Arizona is starting their third string QB, but that’s a classic Saturday’s Law situation where the Bucs will have less film than usual to work out the Cardinals expected gameplan. All signs point toward continuing to fade the Bucs. Let’s take a flier on the Cardinals so we have something to root for Christmas Day.
Yank’s Pick: $2.50 on the Cardinals ML (+300)
Sam’s Pick: $3.12 on the CArdinals+7.5 (-104) and $2.50 on the Cardinals ML (+300)
The Confrontation (Yank 4-6, Sam 6-4):
No Confrontations on the slate this week.
The Isolation (Yank 3-5-1, Sam 4-5-1):
The Philadelphia Eagles @ the Dallas Cowboys-4.5
Sam: I feel like all season long people have been saying that Jalen Hurts isn’t all that good and that anybody could step in and facilitate this explosive Eagles offense. Despite that, as soon as the Minshew steps in this line drops at least 3 points. I think the other 52 men on the Eagles roster are better than the 53 across the line of scrimmage on Saturday. The Eagles aren’t 13-1 for no reason. I’m betting on the Eagles competency and the overreaction to a QB change.
Sam’s Pick: $2.20 on the Eagles+4 (-110) and $2.00 on the Eagles ML (+168)
The Las Vegas Raiders @ The Pittsburgh Steelers-1.5
Yank: This logic is basically a repeat of my stance last week and the week before. The Steelers have one of the league’s best head coaches. Their defense is close to full strength and playing extremely well. Kenny Pickett is back this week and has improved as the season has gone on. Meanwhile the Raiders needed a blocked punt and the worst play in NFL history last week to get a win at home against the mediocre at best Patriots. I like the Steelers to continue to trend upward as you know Tomline will have them focused on the opportunity they continue to have to make the playoffs. We’re adding in the Bills against the decimated Bears to get us to plus odds.
Yank’s Pick: $4.00 on a ML Parlay Steelers and Bills (+119)
The Bank – Week 16
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $51.41 | $75.14 |
| Risk: | $23.30 | $26.62 |
| Potential Earnings: | $32.12 | $35.72 |
| Record: | 23-46-2 | 33-49-1 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 12-22-1 | 17-22-1 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 