Intro by Yank
Happy New Year! It’s New Year, same us, here at One Last Line. Settle in for some firecracker picks as we’re feeling good about the trends we’re seeing in the NFL as the season winds down.
The Recap
We unwrapped a few presents last week on Christmas but also found some coal in our stockings. On the good side of the ledger we finally got a bet on a Lions game correct as they got smoked by the Panthers. We also liked McSorley and the Cardinals to keep it close against Brady and the Bucs (a team you will continue to see in this blog). Finally I had the Steelers to come through like Santa on Christmas Eve night, and Mike Tomlin put on the red suit for us and brought home a W.
On the negative side the Pats couldn’t overcome the 22 point hole they put themselves in barely missing out on a cover for us with some ridiculous miscues (they’ve now fooled us twice, shame on us). The Commanders also got summarily stomped in San Francisco, who I refuse to bet against for the remainder of the season at this point. Finally Sam looked like he was in the drivers seat for a cover at worst with the Eagles, but big Mike kicked a weird field goal late and the Cowboys held on by six.
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
- Auto bet the underdog when the line moves towards the underdog despite the majority of the money being on the favorite.
- When in doubt go against conventional wisdom/the worst gambler you know
Week 17 Picks
The Collaboration (Yank 15-36-1; Sam 24-38):
The Carolina Panthers @ the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-4
Yank: At this point we know who the Bucs are. They are going to struggle to score points. They are going to give away at least one, likely multiple, backbreaking turnovers. And they still have Brady so they will be somewhat clutch in the end game. I like Carolina to win this game outright, but it seems like most everyone out there is onto the Bucs at this point. We try to stay away from these public bets where possible, but the Bucs are too good an opportunity to pass up. I like going against them, I LOVE getting more than a field goal, in case they come through at the end again.
Sam: The Bucs stink. Take whoever they’re playing and load up on them. That’s the strategy. We were a play away last week when they went up against Trace McSorley and the Arizona Cardinals. They stink! This week they’re going up against a team that is at worst a slightly below average football team. I expect the Panthers to take care of business against the Bucs much like good/average teams do. I’m not going to waste my time on the spread and go straight for the ML and a taste on an adjusted spread that has the Panthers to win by a little less than a touchdown.
Yank’s Pick: $5.72 on the Panthers+3.5 (-104)
Sam’s Pick: $3.00 on the Panthers ML (+172) and $2.00 on the Panthers-5.5 (+300)
The Pittsburgh Steelers @ the Baltimore Ravens-2
Sam: A few weeks ago, I told Yank that I wanted to hammer the Steelers the rest of the way. They’ve rounded into form, they’re still coached by one of the best coaches in sports, and the talent on defense is good enough to make trouble for most teams. Despite my bold claims, I managed to not bet them the last two weeks and I regret that tremendously. I won’t be making that mistake this week. I’m taking the Steelers ML and counting on their consistency to take advantage of a team that is falling apart by the seams.
Yank: I have managed to get bets down on the Steelers the last few weeks and they have rewarded my faith. Sam lays out the rationale well, too tier coaching, talented defense, offense is improving. This is a “gotta have it” game for them against a huge rival who is missing their starting QB. Seems like a 50-50 game at worst to me, I’m happy to continue to ride their bandwagon at plus odds.
Yank’s Pick: $5.15 on the Steelers ML (+122)
Sam’s Pick: $5.00 on the Steelers ML (+122)
The Confrontation (Yank 4-6, Sam 6-4):
No Confrontations on the slate this week.
The Isolation (Yank 4-5-1, Sam 4-7-1):
The Minnesota Vikings @ the Green Bay Packers-3
Sam: As a Vikings fan, I’m too nervous to actually bet the Vikings in this one, but I couldn’t resist having a little action on the game. I like Jefferson to score a TD, obviously. I also believe Dalvin Cook could have a big game. The Packers run defense is abysmal and Cook has gone off for big games against the Packers the last few seasons. He didn’t have as big of a game as this when they met in Week 1, so I think he’s due. I’ll take a TD and the over for his rushing prop of 75.5 yards.
Sam’s Pick: $3.00 on SGP of Jefferson TD, Cook TD, Cook over 75.5 rushing yards
The Los Angeles Rams vs The Los Angeles Chargers-6.5
Yank: This is a classic tease killer pick from my perspective. The Chargers clinched the playoffs last week and celebrated like they won the Super Bowl. Meanwhile the Rams seemingly have nothing to play for. That said there are more Rams fans in LA than Chargers fans and so whatever they are calling this game, it’s likely at worst basically a neutral site. The Rams also don’t have their own pick and have been playing hard looking to finish with some momentum. Every Chargers game is weird, and they absolutely have the ability to blow this one. I’ll take a shot on McVay and Mayfield to come through.
Yank’s Pick: $5.00 on the Rams+7 (-128) $2.00 on the Rams ML (+215)
The Seattle Seahawks vs The New York Jets-2
Yank: Warning: This is sort of a mean spirited pick. Everyone loves the Jets again now that Mike White is back, but doesn’t he have multiple broken ribs? We’re 100% confident he makes it through the whole game? I don’t love Seattle but they are competent enough to keep it close against Chris Streveler. They may keep it close anyway. Seems worth taking a shot on. I adjusted the line and then added in the Chiefs moneyline (they’re 12 point faves) to get more favorable odds.
Yank’s Pick: $6.00 on the Seahawks+3.5 parlayed with the Chiefs ML (-122)
The Bank – Week 17
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $45.83 | $63.60 |
| Risk: | $23.87 | $13.00 |
| Potential Earnings: | $24.91 | $31.90 |
| Record: | 25-50-2 | 35-55-1 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 12-24-1 | 18-25-1 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 