Intro by Sam
Well, ladies and gentlemen, we’ve reached that sad, sad time of the year. The final week of regular season football is upon us. Our deepest condolences to all of you suckers, whose teams are out after this weekend. Yank and I will provide you with picks to fade all post-season long, so don’t fear, there is entertainment to be had. But, before we get there, a quick look at our lackluster performance from Week 17 and our picks for the final week of the regular season.
The Recap
Week 17 was looking mighty fine for the first 2 and a half quarters of the 1 p.m. games as the Panthers cruised out to an early lead against the Bucs, but that’s when things went downhill and fast. The Bucs remembered that they have Tom Brady and Mike Evans on their team, and the pair connected repeatedly for scores to leave our once shining bet in the dark. Our other Collaboration bet did pay dividends as Mike Tomlin came through for us yet again. As we’ve said before, there’s a reason he’s never had a losing record as a head coach.
In the Isolation, things turned sour for us once again. My Same Game Parlay involving Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook never took off, as the Vikings failed to show for their game against the Packers. Meanwhile, Yank’s confidence in the Rams/McVay, or perhaps in the meaninglessness of the victory for the Chargers, proved unfounded as the Chargers steamrolled the Rams practice squad roster. Yank was able to secure one victory, with his parlay on the Chiefs and Seahawks. In retrospect, betting against a QB with broken ribs seems like a recipe for earnings. We’ll have to keep that one in mind.
And with that, on to our final picks of the regular season:
The Strategies
- Watch line movement carefully. Sharps move the lines and we want to be on the side with them.
- Pick more underdogs. Even though many of them lose more than 50% of games, they still cover about 50% of the time.
- Put in bets earlier. Once you get to Sunday, the lines are close to perfectly efficient.
- Auto bet the underdog when the line moves towards the underdog despite the majority of the money being on the favorite.
- When in doubt go against conventional wisdom/the worst gambler you know
Week 18 Picks
The Collaboration (Yank 16-37-1; Sam 25-40):
Parlay Construction – Tier 1:
The New York Giants @ the Philadelphia Eagles-14.5
The Arizona Cardinals @ the San Francisco 49ers-14.5
The Dallas Cowboys-7.5 @ the Washington Commanders
Yank: It’s wild now to think back to the summer but picture Sam and me as passengers on a steamy, shimmering subway unfurling in the mid-summer heat, making our way to Coney Island. At the time we were discussing betting opportunities in the early part of the upcoming season, particularly Week One. The theory was everyone has expectations but some of them will surely be wrong so if we could figure out some scenarios where conventional wisdom was off we could capitalize before the market adjusted. Whether or not we pulled that off (editor’s note: better luck next year boys) we find ourselves in another unique circumstance with week 18. With 17 weeks of data, we know for certain which teams are definitively good. We also know which teams are at most playing for nothing and in reality in some cases outright tanking. If we can be disciplined and parlay the biggest opportunities where a definitively good team who needs to win is playing a team that doesn’t care about the outcome at all, we should (should!) be able to create some value. These matchups are the ones we identified for that purpose.
Sam: Let’s think about it. The Eagles need to win to secure the 1st seed and thus a bye and home-field advantage. They’re going up against a team, the Giants, that can’t move up or down and is locked to the 6th spot. Why would the Eagles lose? So they’re parlay team number 1. What about the 49ers? Well, they’re playing for the 2nd seed and a chance for home-field advantage up until the conference championship should the Eagles make it that far too. Additionally, they’re facing the Cardinals whose will to win left at the beginning of the season. They’re basically playing backup guys all along the roster. The 49ers should take care of business. And last, the Cowboys. The Cowboys have an outside chance to snag the 1st seed, should the Eagles falter. While we’re convinced that the Eagles will lock that up shortly, the Cowboys can’t take that shot lightly. They need to take care of business and they’re playing a Commanders team that has already been eliminated, and at this point are trying to find out what they have in 5th-round pick quarterback Sam Howell. Circle the Cowboys.
Parlay Construction – Tier 2:
The Minnesota Vikings @ the Chicago Bears-6
Sam: The reason the Vikings fall into tier 2, is about 2 things. 1. It is ultimately out of their inability to control their destiny. The Vikings can win and be stuck in 3rd place. With the 9ers going up against the Cardinals Practice Squad, it seems inevitable that they will get the W (hence, why the 9ers are in Tier 1). It sounds like the Vikings will go into the game with their starters to try and get their mojo back, but it’s unlikely they finish the game that way. 2. The Vikings have been so infuriatingly unpredictable. Are you sure the Vikings are going to take advantage of Nathan Peterman and the Bears? The fact that this is a question demonstrates the need to put this game into tier 2.
Yank: Sometimes I’m excited to get to my section of these blogs because my rationale is basically printable on a bumper sticker. The Bears want to lose this game. Say it again with me: the Bears WANT to lose this game. They have an outside shot at the first overall pick. They are playing arguably the worst multi-team starting QB of the 21st century. Could the Vikings blow this for no reason? Of course, they could. But if we’re taking chances with our money, going against this awful Bears team that doesn’t even want to win feels like as good of a place as any.
Yank’s pick:$10.00 on the Eagles/49ers/Cowboys ML and Vikings ML (+122)
Sam’s pick: $20.00 on the Eagles/49ers/Cowboys ML and Vikings ML (+114)
The New England Patriots @ the Buffalo Bills-7.5
Yank: What happened to Damar Hamlin is a tragedy and I can’t imagine how his teammates have felt over the last week. That being said if they are going to take the field six days later you know he is going to be on every one of their minds. Between that and the fact that this game still has stakes (if the Bills lose they will have to go Arrowhead for the AFC Championship) I think the team is going to be shot out of a cannon. Add in the raucous atmosphere that I am sure Bills fans, who are some of the best in the league, will provide, to cheer their team on after the week they’ve had and I think this one could snowball (pun intended for Buffalo in January).
Sam: It was truly a horrifying week in Buffalo and around the league. Thankfully, as the week has progressed good news has continued to get better and better. With their teammate in stable condition, talking, and breathing on his own, the Bills players have to feel relieved. While that might give them some kind of edge, this incident could easily go the other way. Players may not have had the ability to focus on preparation (and justifiably so) during such an emotionally difficult week, but Yank already touched on the anticipated atmosphere in Buffalo and one would have to imagine that they’re going to come out playing like their hair is on fire. We think Buffalo summons the energy for their teammate and the chance at home-field advantage to win this game against a division rival.
Yank’s pick: $10.00 on the Eagles/49ers/Cowboys ML and Bills ML (+114) and $9.25 on Bills-9.5 adjusted line (+108)
Sam’s pick: $10.00 on the Eagles/49ers/Cowboys ML and Bills ML (+104)
The Baltimore Ravens @ the Cincinnati Bengals-9
Sam: Oh how the mighty have fallen. The Ravens have been such a disappointment this season, and yet, they’re somehow still at 10 wins. Mindboggling. Meanwhile, the Bengals have found their form and are in contention for some home-field advantage. They’ll want to play well and ensure they knock off the Ravens, but 9 points feels like a lot. The Ravens have disappointed, but it doesn’t mean they’re garbage. Throw this one in tier 2 because the Bengals should take care of business, but I’ve got no feel for the spread.
Yank: Headlines have indicated Cincy is pissed that the recently passed NFL rule changes prevent them from already having clinched the division. Guess what, all they have to do is win this game against a Baltimore team playing a backup QB and they clinch anyway. Always a little bit scary to go against John Harbaugh in a must win situation but the Ravens are so banged up it will be hard to overcome. It seems way more likely that the Bengals bring some of that us against the world energy to the party and cruise to an easy W.
Yank’s pick:$10.00 on the Eagles/49ers/Cowboys ML and Bengals ML (-103)
Sam’s pick: $10.00 on the Eagles/49ers/Cowboys ML and Bengals ML (+101)
The Confrontation (Yank 4-6, Sam 6-4):
No Confrontations on the slate this week.
The Isolation (Yank 5-7-1, Sam 4-8-1):
The Cleveland Browns @ the Pittsburgh Steelers-2.5
Sam: This one is pretty simple. We’ve been on the Steelers train for a few weeks now. In some ways, this is the most important game too. The Steelers are sitting at 8-8. A win keeps Tomlin’s never-had-a-losing-record streak alive, while a loss flips them to sub .500 (thanks week 18). Throw in the fact that the Steelers are still vying for a playoff birth and the Browns are trying to figure out what signing could have possibly given them bad karma, and this feels like a Steelers victory through and through. Now they just need enough offense to keep the Browns from covering the spread. Here we go, Steelers!
Sam’s Pick: $5.75 on the Steelers-2.5 (-115)
The Bank – Week 18
| Yank | Sam | |
| Starting: | $44.35 | $61.70 |
| Risk: | $39.25 | $45.75 |
| Potential Earnings: | $43.04 | $48.50 |
| Record: | 27-53-2 | 36-58-1 |
| Record Against The Spread: | 12-26-1 | 18-26-1 |
Authors: Sam Mattson and Michael Yanckello
One Last Line 